Game Info

Date: Sunday, August 9, 2020

Venue: Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Kogarah

Kick Off: 4:05PM AEST

Referee: Ben Cummins

Head-to-head: Played 87, Parramatta 40, Cronulla 47

Odds: Eels $1.42 Sharks $2.90

Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Last Four Encounters:

Sharks 42 d Eels 22, Shark Park, R13 2019

Eels 24 d Sharks 12, ANZ Stadium, R4 2019

Sharks 22 d Eels 20, Shark Park, R9 2018

Sharks 14 d Eels 4, ANZ Stadium, R3 2018

Background

You wouldn’t know it by looking at the table, but the Eels have been downright ordinary for more than a month now. Last week they had to hold on for dear life against the cellar dwelling Bulldogs after breaking out to an 18-0 lead, a position you would hope a premiership contender could convert to a convincing win. July wasn’t happy watching for the Blue & Gold army, but if you ever start to feel too bad just look at two things; the ladder, where the Eels remain in third spot with ten wins and two losses, and the NRL casualty ward, of which the Parramatta injured list consists only of Ryan Matterson and Peni Terepo.

If good teams can win ugly and know how to pace themselves through the grind of the regular season, then there is no doubt that Parramatta is a good team. If the Eels are indeed pacing themselves, this is the week to start picking things up, against an opposition with plenty of momentum and with a crucial clash against Melbourne only three weeks away. Cronulla are regarded as one of the form teams of the competition right now, and plenty will be tipping them to upset the Blue & Gold.

Are the Sharks any good? On the one hand you have a team that has won six from seven, with the lowest score they’ve posted in that time being 20 points, in a win. They’ve cracked 40 three times. Incidentally, the Sharks have also won six of their last seven against Parramatta. On the other hand, they’ve beaten the teams currently coming 11th, 12th, 14th, 15th and 16th, with their only win against a “strong” team being against a Manly side that had just lost half of its spine to injury and sure played like it. The one Cronulla loss? The table topping Panthers not just beat them, but put 56 points on the board. 

Cronulla most recently overcame a crippling injury toll and an eight point deficit with ten minutes to go to beat the mighty Brisbane Broncos. This match against the Eels marks only their fourth contest of the season against one of the seven contenders, a gift draw that they arguably have not taken enough advantage of considering they are 7-5. Parramatta is the first test that will determine if the Sharks are contenders or pretenders, with the Panthers, Roosters, Raiders and Knights also making up their run to the finals.

To answer that question, “Are the Sharks any good?” I’ll go with an answer that would make Wayne Bennett proud: “we’ll know by Sunday night”.

History

Parramatta shifts from playing their biggest rival one week to playing a team with which there is incredibly little shared history the next. Cronulla and Parramatta just haven’t had many meaningful interactions since the Sharks joined the premiership in 1967.

The two teams do battle for the Johnny Mannah Cup, in honour of the man who played for both clubs before tragically losing his battle with cancer in 2013 at age 23. This will be the first Cup contested since Jon’s brother and former Eels captain Tim Mannah retired, but the memory of Jon will hopefully continue to be celebrated for as long as football is played between the two sides.

There is one finals clash between the teams, a 1979 Major Preliminary Semi, back when finals games had ridiculous names like Major Preliminary Semi before progressing to the “Final” then “Grand Final”. That game back in ‘79 was won comfortably by the Eels 24-4.

It is well known that Cronulla’s favourite son, Paul Gallen, was a junior in the Parramatta area, and despite what old Gal says about not caring about that he doesn’t mind taking an opportunity to put the boot into the club. Lucky for us, very few people outside of the shire care about what Paul Gallen says or thinks. Gal’s name does come up in all of those “players the Eels let go” lists, but he was let go by Parramatta like an under 14s Hills Bulls third grader is let go. If he wanted to play for the Eels he shouldn’t have held off on his growth spurt until he was 17.

There are branches of the coaching tree that tangle between Cronulla and Parramatta. Current Sharks coach John Morris is a former Eels grand finalist from 2001. Maligned former Sharks coach and current Dragons “assistant” Shane Flanagan is a former Eel as both player and lower grade coach. The great Jack Gibson famously coached both clubs, and was quoted as saying “Waiting for Cronulla to win a premiership is like leaving the porch lamp on for Harold Holt.”, a great quote that has been unfortunately tarnished by the Sharks eventual premiership triumph in what was deemed to be the only year in a five year period that they were not over the cap. Lucky for them.

Terry Fearnley also coached both sides, and current Raiders coach Ricky Stuart also had ordinary stints at both Cronulla and Parramatta. We should have known Ricky was trouble in 2009 when he said he thought his side had contained Jarryd Hayne well as he scored two tries in a 30-0 Eels win. 

One famous match between the two clubs was the Eels greatest ever winning margin, a 74-4 demolition job in 2003, where turncoat Jamie Lyon set an Eels record with five tries in a match. Here’s hoping Maika Sivo can get six in a game one day and wipe Lyon from the Eels record books. Heck, I’d take George Jennings doing it at this point. That day is best remembered for the Sharks playing with ten men at one point as Shayne Hayne went overboard with the sin bin and send offs, including marching the Sharks captain David Peachey for “talking with his hands”. I believe the Sharks even attempted a field goal when down about 50, such was the absurdity of the game. Nathan Cayless ran 50 metres to score, though he hardly looked as elegant as RCG did in doing the same a couple of weeks ago. He certainly didn’t need to step the fullback.

Sharks 2020 recruit Cameron King is a former Eel, unfortunately King was cut down by injury before the season even started. On the Parramatta side, Blake Ferguson began his colourful career as a Shark, exercising his “Ricky clause” to leave in 2011 for the Raiders. Jaeman Salmon was recruited from Cronulla but never played first grade for them.

One of Parra’s favourite sons, John McMartin, left Parramatta for the Sharks at the end of the 1975 season on what was a then lucrative 10K contract for a player in his twilight years. Though that meant that he missed the 1976 and 1977 Grand finals with the Eels, he did play for the Sharks in the 1978 decider.

The biggest names to wear both jerseys at NRL level are Michael Gordon, Kevin Kingston, Jeff Robson, Blake Green, John Morris, Adam Ritson, Adam Dykes and Tim Smith. A selection of lesser lights to play for both teams includes current NRL “referee” Henry Perenara, Joseph “the crab” Paulo, Daniel Mortimer, Siosaia Vave, Reni Maitua, Taulima Tautai, Josh Cordoba and Adam Peek. Note that these lists aren’t exhaustive, just a selection of interesting names to make you remember amusing moments like when Taulima Tautai was ironically cheered for finally catching a high ball.

We also extend our sympathies to the family of Kevin Hogan who passed away this week. Hogan was a five-eighth with the Sharks in their early years before playing 14 games for the Eels in 1974.

Sixties’ Lucre Quest (Quoted markets are NSW TAB)

As I expected, last week was not a good week for punting on the Eels. I was wary about any points betting against the Dogs as I suspected a typical tight encounter, based on historical trends. I hope you kept your coin in your pocket.

This round should be no different as there is no historical basis for being confident about an Eels win against the Sharks. Having lost six of their last seven encounters against the team from the Shire, Parra will have to overcome another “hoodoo team” to get the points in this one.

Furthermore, the Eels haven’t played Cronulla at Parramatta since 2015 and this game is again away from home.

Strange then that after my reluctance to wager on the Eels chances against the Dogs, that I am bullish about a strong performance this week.

I considered picking a high margin (north of 15.5) but I’ll remain conservative and revert to the line/over under market. Take the Eels at -5.5/over 38.5 total match points which is returning $3.10.

If the weather is poor and conditions are soggy, the total match points might be difficult to achieve. In that instance, just take an Eels win or keep your money in your pocket.

Happy punting and gamble responsibly.

 

Teams

Parramatta

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Michael Jennings 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Marata Niukore 13. Nathan Brown. 14. Andrew Davey 15. Ray Stone 16. Kane Evans 17. Oregon Kaufusi. 18. Brad Takairangi 19. Stefano Utoikamanu 20. David Gower 21. Jai Field.

Only one change from last week for Parramatta, with Ray Stone returning to force Brad Takairangi from the edge of the bench. Ryan Matterson remains rested after suffering a concussion against the Tigers, and Peni Terepo remains sidelined with what increasingly feels like a serious issue, given the length of time and radio silence around it.

Game state dictated it would be tough, but Kane Evans and Oregon Kaufusi didn’t have their usual impact in their returns from injury. Indeed, RCG and Junior have stepped up in their absence, so the bar is higher than it was a month ago, but the Eels need more from their bench big men, especially with Marata Niukore shifting from his impact bench role to an edge start. Ray Stone and Andrew Davey are the kind of “all effort” players you love to see on the field, but both at the same time might not leave many tackles for anybody else to make.

Cronulla

1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Josh Dugan 4. Jesse Ramien 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Matt Moylan 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Braden Hamlin-Uele 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Aaron Woods 11. Siosifa Talakai 12. Wade Graham 13. Toby Rudolf. 14. Connor Tracey 15. Jack Williams 16. Teig Wilton 17. Royce Hunt. 18. Scott Sorensen 19. Briton Nikora 20. Braydon Trindall 21. Bryson Goodwin. 

The Sharks see plenty of players come back this week, including centre pairing Josh Dugan and Jesse Ramien, though Dugan is perpetually in a “believe it when I see it” state as to his playing status. Matt Moylan also returns from an eternal hamstring injury to partner Shaun Johnson in the halves in place of Chad Townsend.

Andrew Fifita is the notable name missing from the pack, though the Sharks have barely missed the ghost that has been running around in Fifita’s tattoos for the last two seasons. Hamlin-Uele and Rudolf are in good touch, even finding the tryline regularly, while Siosifa Talakai’s career resurgence sees young gun Briton Nikora demoted to the extended bench.

Intangibles

It is set to be a soggy, miserable weekend in Sydney, so despite the Sunday afternoon time slot I would expect this to be another slippery affair. The Eels didn’t look any better for playing on a dry track last week, the service still had some spotty moments and players were still slipping over, but expecting the free flowing football to return this week might be a bit much to ask.

Cronulla has a minimal home ground advantage, being that they are playing out of their chief rival’s home ground, Kogarah, thanks to the Cronulla Leagues Club development somehow needing to shut down the stadium too? While I am not willing to say Parramatta are now away game specialists, they have beaten the Bulldogs and Knights away from home in recent weeks. Let’s forget the Manly game happened.

Maybe the prime minister will be there, but that hasn’t stopped the Sharks getting a flogging in the past so I wouldn’t be too worried about extra motivation to perform in front of ScoMo. 

Ben Cummins is in charge of his fourth Parramatta match of the season, the Eels are 2-1 under him thus far. The Sharks are 3-3 under Cummins since the start of 2019, including a single loss this year. Cummins is notable for keeping the whistle in the pocket this season, blowing the lowest number of penalties of regular officials, and also sitting on the low side of six again restarts.

How we win

The Eels need the real Reed Mahoney back. His crisp service and good decision making was key to the long passes that unlocked the Eels wide attack earlier in the season, and errant long passes have snuck into his game in recent weeks. This is especially harmful when it takes several plays for Parramatta to set up a backline shift; they move the ball to one side of the field, Gutherson shifts into the line, they get a good play the ball, run a crash line to keep the ruck honest and throw the ball wide to the half as first receiver. That can take three plays, and when the pass bounces or goes past the half, that is essentially a set wasted (not to mention what happens if Moses gets tackled on the fourth).

The quality of Reed’s service is the obvious drop-off, but his decision making has also taken a downward turn. It was most obvious when he dawdled out of dummy half last week, pumping twice and being drilled by Ofahiki Ogden who forced the ball free. He didn’t have a clear plan or any commitment to the play. He’s going short when he should go long and probably needs more firm direction from his halves. Maybe he’s getting multiple calls, maybe he’s just not seeing the field right. Whatever the reason is, the Eels need to fix it, and quickly.

I was critical of Dylan Brown’s decision making last week, and while he was running the ball too often he didn’t need to pack the running game away entirely. It is still his most effective weapon, and he needs to find the balance of unlocking his outside men and keeping the defence honest. You can’t call it a slump, but Brown is definitely down on his form from early in the season.

But what about the Sharks? Cronulla has made the fewest and missed the most tackles this season, an interesting combination that likely indicates less desire to pack numbers into the tackles, presumably to maintain a set defensive line. They have conceded 70 more points than any other team in the top eight, and that is with only playing three other top eight sides, so whatever that strategy is, it hasn’t stopped them being a very ordinary defensive side. Considering the Eels lead the NRL in offloading, tackle breaks, post contact metres and running metres, missing tackles and making ineffective tackles feels like a recipe for disaster against Parramatta.

Two fun stats came from this week’s Rugby League Eye Test that I want to take a look at. The first is the Eels get the least minutes in the NRL out of their bench players. This is largely due to a few zero minute games from Brad Takairangi as a utility, and the lack of faith Brad Arthur had in rookie prop Stefano Utoikamanu to play extended minutes. With starting back rowers and props this good, who don’t seem to be impacted by the big minutes asked of them, this isn’t a knock on the Eels at all, just an interesting observation. One benefit to this is that the option for three stints from our starting props is made possible by the lack of changes at hooker and back row, though it is one that Brad Arthur has not often taken up this season.

The second stat is simple, the Eels post more runs of 8 metres or more than any team in the competition, and have the lowest percentage of “less than 8m” runs in the NRL. Looking at Junior and Reg bash through opposition packs you might be looking at this sideways and giving a “well durr”, but it is a nice validation of the strength of the Eels middles and their ability to dominate and claim victory in the field position battle. If we just stopped cheap turnovers, we may never have to defend a set on the line.

So how do we win this one? Straight through the middle of the field. Expect the big boys to be doing plenty of “Gallens” on the fourth tackle, taking that big 15 metre run up the middle of the field rather than spreading the ball, and turning this one into a grind. There will be plenty of offloading opportunities, and hopefully the conditions are friendly enough to allow Junior and co. to run wild.

Dangers

The Sharks concede a lot of points, the Sharks score a lot of points. Shaun Johnson is in great form, leading the NRL in try assists and recently everything he touches turns to gold. Losing game manager Chad Townsend might hurt the Sharks now they are facing a real NRL team and not the Broncos, but if Matt Moylan can be an even moderately competent threat in the halves (and stay healthy for 80 minutes) then Johnson should have the room to cause some real damage on the edges. 

Johnson has some real strike weapons to deploy outside of him. Knock Josh Dugan all you want, he deserves it, but he’s still a good runner of the football (even if he doesn’t want to tackle). Jesse Ramien is another who can have brief moments of inspiration and decimate an opposition, if he has one of those games this weekend it will be a tough night, even with defensive standout Michael Jennings opposite him.

Sione Katoa is the NRL’s leading tryscorer, with most of those coming from Johnson or fullback Will Kennedy. Normally the centre inside a top tryscoring winger will have a few assists themselves, but Ramien has a solitary try assist on the season, meaning it is the inside men that are unlocking Katoa. Maika Sivo loves to come in and create a passage to be beaten outside close to the line, he needs to have faith in Jennings and stay on his bloody wing, to quote the fan in the stands. This might be easier if it isn’t Ramien that is unlocking his outside man.

The Sharks forwards have been strong in recent weeks too. Hamlin-Uele, Rudolf and even Aaron Woods have crossed the stripe in recent games, with Woods settling in to his “upper level journeyman” status and playing good, solid football without the expectations that he has to set the world alight. Wade Graham continues to be a difference maker in the back row, a rare double threat of playmaking and ball running talent that is hard to defend against. He doesn’t mind a big effort against the Eels, either.

How it goes

I can’t get over that missed tackles stat, and what a team with poor defensive technique will do to defend Junior Paulo, Shaun Lane and Reagan Campbell-Gillard. It could be a bloodbath. It should be a bloodbath. Yet “should” and “did” have not matched up well for Parramatta in the last month as they battled to put away inferior opposition.

Yet the path to victory here is so simple it is hard to see how Parramatta could overthink or fail to execute. Just run bloody hard and the space will come, the breaks will be there. The Sharks are the worst tacklers in the NRL, they give up the most offloads through ineffective tackles, and that plays right into Parramatta’s strength. They are scissors, we are rock. The Eels should win every time.

I’m not a believer in the Sharks formline, much like you don’t back a horse in the Melbourne Cup that has only had wins at Wagga. Maybe they will believe their own press and play like one of the form teams of the NRL, but you can’t hide bad tackling. If the Eels can establish their gameplan, this one could be done by half time. That’s a bit of an “if” considering recent form, but the gulf in quality here, the strengths that match perfectly with weaknesses, make me very confident in tipping a strong Parramatta victory.

Prediction: Parramatta Eels 36 Cronulla Sharks 18

Man of the Match: Junior Paulo