Game Info

Date: Thursday, May 28, 2020

Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Kick Off: 7:50pm AEST

Referee: Gerard Sutton

Head-to-head: Played 57, Eels 23, Broncos 33, Drawn 1

Odds: Eels $1.90 Broncos $1.90

Broadcast: Channel Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Last Four Encounters:

Eels 58 Broncos 0, Bankwest Stadium, Elimination Final 2019

Broncos 17 d Eels 16, Suncorp Stadium, R24 2019

Eels 38 d Broncos 10, Bankwest Stadium, R14 2019

Broncos 18 d Eels 10, Suncorp Stadium, R12 2018

The Background

Thank Parramatta Jesus that is over. May we never have to suffer through an Easter without football again. Our reward for enduring 67 long days of lockdown is a rematch of the 2019 elimination final, which Eels fans might remember (and perhaps watched weekly for comfort during these dark times) as the biggest finals win of all time, the biggest Broncos loss of all time and one of the great Parramatta victories. It was a pretty good day.

That win and the undefeated start to the Eels season don’t mean much at this point, thanks to a two month break and five seasons worth of rule changes and interpretation updates that arrive untested and mostly unwanted by coaches and fans. Instead of 30,000 roaring fans at Bankwest we have a cavernous Suncorp Stadium with one less referee and a raft of new rules.

Those new laws include the contentious new “six again” rule for ruck infringements to go along with the mostly untested changes to tackling attacking players in the air, placement of scrums and the ridiculous 20/40 kick. Sixties already had plenty to say about these changes and I wholeheartedly agree with him. With so many unknowns, I’d sure hate to be writing a short piece on punting to insert in the middle of this preview.

The History

The Eels/Broncos rivalry extends beyond dealing out humiliating defeats on the biggest of stages. It really kicked into gear with the arrival of coach Brian Smith in 1997, who brought to the Eels an already burning feud with Broncos coach Wayne Bennett. During Smith’s decade at the helm, Parramatta was the only club with a better than 50% winning record against Bennett’s all-time Broncos squad that won two premierships and a Super League title during the span.

Much of that came down to Smith’s superior gameplans and tactics, he took a great delight in beating Bennett at his own game. Smith had a unique way of getting under Bennett’s skin through tactics and mind games, and it was beautiful. Since those days the rivalry has mostly simmered, largely thanks to a decade of Eels mediocrity.

While it won’t be as intimidating as in recent visits, Suncorp hasn’t been a fun place for Eels fans in recent times. Parramatta has dropped five of their last six at Suncorp Stadium, one of those to Melbourne in a not-so-Magic Round last year. Mildly interesting fact: the Eels didn’t get their first win at Suncorp Stadium/Lang Park until 2003, a losing streak that includes never beating the South Queensland Crushers there in three attempts. The Eels are the only team the Crushers beat more than twice. I’m suddenly against adding a second Brisbane team.

The road between Red Hill and Parramatta isn’t as well worn as, say, Brookvale or Canterbury, but what player movement has occurred between the two teams has usually been to the benefit of the Queenslanders. Historically the biggest names to play for both clubs include Corey Norman, PJ Marsh, Casey McGuire, Stu Kelly, Josh Hoffman, Brett Plowman, Chris Walker and Carl Webb. Not a lot of aces in that deck.

Neither team currently boasts any player with first grade experience at the other. Daniel Alvaro started his career in the Broncos NYC, and Jamil Hopoate was sacked from the Eels all the way back in 2012 for a couple of off-field incidents that would barely make headlines these days. He did of course end up in jail two years later, so it was probably a good call.

Sixties’ Lucre Quest (Quoted markets are NSW TAB)

I began this season full of bravado about my punting tip. Followers of those preview tips in 2019 would have been well in front.

But there’s a secret to getting my tips to pay off – I’m not allowed to put my own coin on. Due to some quirk of the universe, my bet can put the best of things into a sporting coma.

My punting suggestions last year did not have the weight of my cash to carry.

Fast forward to this year, and I’m feeling bold and loading up on my own tip – say no more. The first two rounds were a disaster, even with Parra winning.

The good news? I don’t hold a TAB account, so with their agencies closed, any tip for the foreseeable future will not carry the burden of my money.

So, with that preamble done, here’s the good oil.

Seven of the last 10 clashes between the Broncos and the Eels have resulted in total match points greater than 40. In two of their last five matches, the Eels have put on over 50 points against Brisbane.

Though I’m not suggesting Parra will do the same again, my tip is to take Parra to win, coupled with over 40.5 total match points in the TAB Head to Head/OverUnder market.

You’ll get the sweet, sweet odds of $3.50, but of course you’ll bet responsibly.

Good luck!

 

Teams

Broncos

1. Jamayne Isaako 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Darius Boyd 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Anthony Milford 7. Brodie Croft 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Jake Turpin 10. Payne Haas 11. Alex Glenn (c) 12. Jamil Hopoate 13. Patrick Carrigan. 14. Herbie Farnworth 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Rhys Kennedy 17. Ethan Bullemor. 18. Tesi Niu 19. Xavier Coates 20. Tom Dearden 21. Matthew Lodge

Brisbane are without two big names in the engine room in David Fifita and Tevita Pangai, with Fifita the biggest loss after his single-handed destruction of the Eels defensive line in last year’s Suncorp battle. Matt Lodge is expected to play despite being named in 21, he will push Flegler from the starting side and either Bullemor or Kennedy from the bench. Alex Glenn returns from injury to replace Fifita, while Jamil Hopoate gets a start for Pangai.

Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Michael Jennings 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Ryan Matterson 12. Shaun Lane 13. Marata Niukore. 14. Brad Takairangi 15. Ray Stone 16. Kane Evans 17. Peni Terepo. 18. Oregon Kaufusi 19. George Jennings 20. Jaeman Salmon 21. David Gower.

Only the one forced change for Parramatta, with Marata Niukore promoted to the starting side for Nathan Brown, opening a bench spot for Ray Stone. Stone will also offer cover for Reed Mahoney, who becomes the first player in NRL history to break his foot then play the next round. Peni Terepo holds off Oregon Kaufusi for the bench prop spot, with Daniel Alvaro all the way outside the 21. It appears a second off-season did not change Brad Arthur’s pecking order all that much.

The Intangibles

A lot has been made of the “advantage” the new draw gives the Eels, with Bankwest being used as a home ground for multiple Sydney clubs. That thinking neglects the key, and perhaps only core component of a home ground: the crowd. Referees don’t favour home teams in penalty counts because of the more comfortable dressing rooms or short trips to the ground, home teams don’t find motivation in familiar blades of grass or by seeing their uncle’s chicken shop advertised on the fence. Home ground advantage is the crowd, and until we start playing in front of fans once more, stadiums are just stadiums and the only thing that matters is how long it takes a team to get there.

Even with only one week of data from football without fans, Round 2 saw seven of eight away teams emerge victorious, something that had not happened in a full regular season round since Round 5, 2015. I’m happy we play so often at Bankwest, but the Eels advantage there isn’t because Mitch Moses knows every corner of the ground and how the ball will bounce, or where the breeze is most swirling. Our advantage is the fans, and they won’t be there until July at the earliest (in Saint Peter we trust).

For all of that, the only team that did manage to win at home in Round 2 was the Broncos. The travel aspect of away games remains, and who knows how much more taxing a trip to Brisbane will be with all of the additional security measures and scanning in place. If the Eels are flat, good luck apportioning blame to the travel, or a short second preseason, or the blonde hair, or Jarryd Hayne, or anything else.

The one referee system is another huge intangible, though the Jeckyll and Hyde nature of the Brisbane forward pack makes its impact tough to grasp. They can be destroyers of worlds some weeks, particularly Haas, then kittens in others (see the finals last year). A faster, cleaner ruck will be of great benefit to the Broncos destroyers of the first two rounds of 2020 and Suncorp last year, but if the Broncos of the elimination final show up it won’t matter how fast the ruck is. Teams will eventually figure out how to exploit the one ref system and the new rules, but I doubt it happens in the first game, and I doubt it is Anthony Seibold (or Brad Arthur, for that matter) who crack it first. 

Gerard Sutton is the referee in charge, one of the few current referees with reasonable experience as the sole man in the middle thanks to his years of international service. The Eels were 3-1 in games refereed by Sutton last season, the Broncos went 0-3 under Sutton last year but did win with him in charge round one this year. He’s one of the best and most experienced officials the NRL has, and a comforting choice with so many unknowns around one referee and new rules.

It is expected to be a dry track and mild night on Thursday, and without a game played in months the oft-maligned Suncorp surface should be in top shape.

How We Win

The Jesse Arthurs/Kotoni Staggs defensive combination must be tested through the hands, having let through four tries in two games. Souths and North Queensland both found plenty of joy down that side of the field with Staggs rushing in, and neither has looked comfortable under the high ball either. If Dylan Brown gets early ball close to the line he could cause havoc, committing Staggs and creating an easy passage for Jennings and Sivo, and Moses could even reverse field with a kick much like he did for Michael Jennings in the elimination final.

The other side of the field could prove equally fruitful. Darius Boyd is notoriously tackle shy and could be both drawn in or beaten one-on-one, and Blake Ferguson doesn’t need much room to find the tryline with his acrobatic feats. Much like Staggs, Corey Oates is a handful with ball in hand but he can be beaten outside too.

The biggest key to victory for the Eels though is holding their own in field position. New rules or not, when we matched the Broncos pack in 2019 we beat them convincingly, and they will be missing two of their real killers in Fifita and Pangai this game. Flegler, Carrigan and particularly Haas are big bodies capable of turning the game single handedly, and will be eager to stand tall given this opportunity, but it is nice to have two fewer major threats to worry about on the edges. 

As Colmac showed this week, the Eels are winning the field position battle in 2020, though some of this was self inflicted by a poor Titans outfit. The Bulldogs heat map shows the Eels consistently had better starting field position, and despite both teams making similar metres per set, Parramatta had a lot more opportunities in the attacking half.

One pleasing aspect coming off the back of this is the Eels improvement in those “no man’s land” kicks from 50 to 30 metres out from the line. Where an ineffective mid field bomb with minimal kick chase pressure has far too often been the go to play, in 2020 the chase has been stronger and the kicks more accurately placed, while both Moses and Brown have shown a willingness to run (or threaten to run) that keeps the defensive line honest and helps to protect our chasers from interference. Combined with tighter ruck discipline to avoid pressure relieving penalties, the Eels have done a great job in these first two weeks avoiding high pressure defensive situations.

The Dangers

For his defensive deficiencies in 2020, Kotoni Staggs has been electric with the ball in hand, especially close to the line. I feel good knowing our best defensive back is marking up with him in Jenko, but Staggs is strong, fast and a terrier when close to the line. Anthony Milford has also had some real shining moments in the early rounds, he has the confidence to take on the line and he will punish tired inside defenders and arm grabs. If Parramatta can force him into crabbing runs and keep a strong line in front of him, they will blunt his attacking strengths.

I’d much rather play a Broncos without David Fifita and Tevita Pangai than one with them, but this is a big opportunity for players like Flegler, Haas and Carrigan to stand up and take on added responsibility. If all three of them have big effort games it will take a lot for the Eels to hold the middle of the field. Similarly, Jake Turpin will be feeling the love after Andrew McCullough was released, coronating him as “the man” for the Broncos at hooker. He is a dangerous attacking player that needs to be well guarded close to the line, a big danger for an Eels team that often starts try-conceding overlaps well in-field by over committing to inside runners.

That field position battle is crucial, because the Broncos have been ruthless close to the line this season. Haas commands a lot of attention and can both score despite it or offload out of it. Turpin will punish sloppy marker defence and Milford can create a numbers advantage with his speed and step. Parramatta has defended the line well so far this year, but they haven’t faced a challenge remotely like what Brisbane presents. The best way to face it will be to give the Broncos as few chances as possible.

The Numbers

In all three contests last year, the Eels significantly outgained the Broncos across the park. In two of those contests we won convincingly, but in the third it only took the Broncos one set in golden point to burst up the middle then protect Jamayne Isaako like a quarterback for the match winning field goal. It tells a tale of the Eels being able to contain the large Broncos pack, and gives me great confidence we can do so again when they are missing three key starters:

Match	Broncos Metres	Eels Metres
Bankwest R14	1456	1929
Suncorp R24	1411	1813
Bankwest Final	813	2107

Despite those numbers, the Broncos racked up a lot more tackle breaks than the Eels, which is a scary thought if they earn a fair share of possession or better. 

If you can find somebody to take it, I’d place good money on Payne Haas cracking the 200 metre mark in this contest, the young Origin prop is a beast of a runner and has an engine for days, with three big names missing he will step it up big time.

How it Goes

To me this is not so much a revenge match for Brisbane as a chance for redemption, there is very little chance their middle rolls over like they did at Bankwest last season. Even still, that motivation might not be enough for a Broncos pack that couldn’t match it with Parramatta in three games last year, and that was when they had Fifita and Pangai in the side. If the Eels hold firm in those first 15 minutes, I think we win the arm wrestle and off of that, win the game.

Even in a more balanced middle contest, I would take the Eels weapons over Brisbane’s. Waqa Blake and Michael Jennings will be crucial to the Parramatta attack, and need to be generous in dishing the ball outside once they draw their opposites. Sivo against Arthars should be a mismatch and the big Fijian needs to be given opportunities to meet his opposite one on one both close to the line and from mid field.

There is only so much confidence you can have when coming off an unprecedented break like this one, but I believe in an Eels pack that has proven they can beat the Broncos before, and with several key outs there are no excuses in this one. I see them pulling away from the Broncos in the late stages to make it three from three. Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 22 Brisbane 10

Man of the Match: Mitchell Moses

-Gol

Images courtesy of NRL, Courier Mail