Round 4 Drink Of Choice – A Cold Shower
I don’t know exactly what to make of that train wreck. I am truly struggling to frame my thoughts. Three parts pure catastrophe, one part modicum of hope; ultimately the Eels careened to their fourth straight loss after completely forgetting the positive lessons from last week. Sixty minutes in tonight they were seriously staring down the barrel of a second fifty point hiding within the opening month of the competition as the Wests Tigers cavorted their way to a 30-6 scoreline. It was brutal. Agonising even.
I was fuming. Or rather it was a white-hot anger. Everything was so utterly, fundamentally wrong. The defence that had righted itself against the Sharks was getting eviscerated by a team that was averaging just a single try per game over the first three rounds. Rudderless in attack, horrifically ill-disciplined in general and completely lost on the last tackle. It was a shambles, a cruel and tragic mockery of everything that defined them in their ascent to the finals in 2017.
Then suddenly the Parramatta Eels remembered that they should be a championship calibre team. A flick was switched, or perhaps the lightning that framed the skyline in the second half struck something of import but they, for lack of better words, finally pulled their fingers out. They utterly dominated the final quarter of play to the point that an air of an improbable comeback descended upon the stadium. It all amounted to naught and fans were left ruing what could have been.
If anything though, it only left more questions than answers. What on Earth took them sixty minutes to roar to life? Where have the clinical long kicking games of Corey Norman and Mitchell Moses gone? Why are we playing with such jaw dropping handicaps in possession and penalties? In that vein I am taking a different tact this week as we delve into the key ‘Who’, ‘What’, ‘When’, ‘Why’ and ‘How’ of the ways in which the Eels can save their season.
Who can help the Eels stem this negative tide?
There is one name that leaps immediately to mind here and that is of course Clinton Gutherson. The talismanic fullback is a devastating loss in a team already reaching for its fourth string fullback in Will Smith. In many ways Gutherson exemplifies the qualities that Parramatta are finding themselves desperately (and bizarrely) short on. A relentless competitor and undoubtedly one of the real rallying points for this roster, Gutherson not only tidies up the issues at the back for the Eels but he provides someone for the team to gravitate to when the pressure is on. Is he ready though? The club has taken exceptional caution rehabilitating his knee following his second ACL tear so just when will they be willing to set him loose?
Marata Niukore is someone that I have kick the tires on ceaselessly this year and while his impact would be far less evident than that of Gutherson, as Tony Williams highlighted today, is an injection of fresh blood off the bench really going to be detrimental for us at this stage?
A left field option could be Reed Mahoney if Brad Arthur really wants to roll the dice on a talented but unproven quantity. Parramatta’s issues around the ruck extend well beyond their #9 but Mahoney is a far more explosive presence through the middle than either Cameron King or Kaysa Pritchard. Beyond any concerns about size or handling the speed on the NRL though is the fact that Mahoney is presumably part of the six development spots rather than the Top 30 proper. An issue that gates any potential NRL debut behind dispensation from the governing body pending other options inside the Top 30.
Really though only Gutherson and maybe Niukore can seriously be considered options to try and re-energise this team from a roster stand point. So while you might believe the ‘Who’ is a larger part of the answer, the reality is that we need find our answer(s) elsewhere.
What are the most significant factors contributing to our losses?
Oh dear, there are plenty of leading candidates here. I could bang out a thesis on our attitude and effort levels over the opening month of play but I will settle for something more tangible.
Consider the following:
48% (-2%) Possession, 8-10 (-2) Penalty Count, 339-315 (+22) Tackles Made
31% (-19%) Possession, 10-12 (-2) Penalty Count, 341-205 (+136) Tackles Made
41% (-9%) Possession, 6-9 (-3) Penalty Count, 395-306 (+89) Tackles Made
42% (-8%) Possession, 3-8 (-5) Penalty Count, 358-291 (+67) Tackles Made
Barring the Round 1 capitulation to Penrith we have not given ourselves a remote chance at winning a game from a possession or a disciplinary point of view. Apportion some of the blame to officiating if you will (I know I have at times) but the simple matter is that the Eels need to control what they can control significantly better. Significantly better.
How are you giving yourself a realistic chance of winning any given game when your opponents are averaging nearly 60% possession!? Then factor in a penalty differential of –3.0 per game and a tackling differential of +78.5 tackles each week and you are asking not only to be beaten but to be belted! While the losses themselves might be a surprise given fan expectations, is the manner in which we have lost really that shocking when you consider how much we have shot ourselves in the foot?
By contrast, the high flying St George Illawarra Dragons have a possession rate of 54.75%, a penalty differential of +1.75 per game and a tackling differential of -50.0 per game over the same period. The Dragons are very nearly our polar opposite across these key indicators so is it an surprise they are 4-0 and we are languishing at 0-4?
Getting our house in order in regards to completing our sets and not gifting possession and field position to our opponents by way of penalties is absolutely one of the priority answers for this team.
When are we going to kick long (and chase) effectively again?
One of the calling cards of our 2017 season were phenomenal long kicking games of both Corey Norman and Mitchell Moses. Sprinkle in the occasional change of pace kick from Cameron King and the Eels were a fearsome and incisive unit off the boot. Of course a kick is only as good as its chase and in that regard the Eels consistently set the benchmark last year.
That all feels like an awfully long time ago now though. Our staple kick is now a gentle midfield bomb that is forfeiting field position in swathes while our options closer to the line are a chaotic mess. What happened to Norman’s unique ability to hit a laser into the corner? Where has Moses’ ability to sell the fullback on a kick to his left sideline before raking it the other way? If we are losing control of the tempo of the game early on by way of possession why aren’t we slowing play down for a moment by finding touch and readjusting from there? It is hard to discern any real motive or direction behind our kicks at the moment.
Regardless of the quality of our kicks, the chases in general have ranged from bad to abysmal. Normally I would suggest there is no excuse for this but a pervasive lack of effort but considering we are averaging a mind boggling thirteen additional sets of defence per game at the moment, perhaps our struggles in possession have more than a bit to do here.
Still, rediscovering the way to flip the field on our opponents is something we really need right now.
Why was Tony Williams such a difference maker in the final quarter?
Because Tony Williams ran damn hard and straight. The monstrous backrower acted as the fulcrum on the right edge from which the Eels were able to leverage attacking raids on both sides of the field. He wasn’t perfect with a botched line break to his name but I will be damned if it wasn’t refreshing to see someone bending the opposition’s defensive line back and thus enabling us to attack on the edges with real penetration.
Figuring out how to best utilise Williams is tricky though. Was he so effective because he was introduced late into the clash? How many more minutes can he effectively take on? He is only two games back from a torn ACL so there is a limit on the load he can take from a pure match fitness perspective.
More importantly though are the lessons to be learned from Tony Williiams’ impactful stint from the bench. Too often have the Eels been guilty of turning their backrowers inside this year. While Kenny Edwards is quite adept at finding a running lane to squeeze through in such a manner, by and large it isn’t challenging our opposition. Simplify things if you will and hammer away at isolating the opponents halves with our edge weapons. On top of hopefully aiding go-forward it has the added benefit of setting up our options on the flank in the bigger picture.
The contrast between our first half set pieces and those executed in the final quarter of play was jaw dropping. Normalised possession rates was another big factor in this but I can’t help but admire at how much better our edge movements looked building from genuine North-South go forward.
With that said, I was expecting the Eels to build from their strong defensive performance against the Sharks last week and look where we ended up? Can they salvage positive momentum from their dazzling close to an otherwise bitterly disappointing game? Only time will tell.
How can we beat the Panthers?
Sitting here right now it looks pretty grim. The Panthers disposed of the Cowboys in imperious fashion on the weekend and will be primed to secure a 2-0 sweep of the Eels this coming Sunday. You would be mad to tip anything but a Penrith win.
If the Eels are to spring an upset they are going to have to aim up across the board (durr!). They simply can not afford to hand over 60% of the ball and make thirteen sets worth of extra tackles. Control what you can control. Hold onto the ball, work the corners off the boot and don’t concede long strings of penalties. At least give yourself a fighting chance for crying out loud.
As for the Panthers themselves, Parramatta will need to find a way to put a lid on their big forward pack. They showed in the first thirty minutes of Round 1 that they can do just that but that now feels like an eon ago. Penrith’s ability to ball play at the line through the ruck will trouble the Eels if they don’t get on top of it early and force a few mistakes but that is conditional on an intent and integrity rarely seen by our defensive front this season.
Some fresh faces, both new and old, wouldn’t go astray either but getting the team back to parity in possession, field position, tackles and penalties is probably the best predictor of an upset win.
Beyond that I haven’t got much for you, sadly. This 0-4 hole that the Eels find themselves is entirely of their own creating and until they rectify the fundamental problems plaguing them it is only going to get bigger and bigger. They will have plenty of tape to review on their upcoming opponents at least because barring the Canberra Raiders, the next five rounds feature the four team they have already lost to this year!
Catch you guys next week, hopefully with something worth drinking to.
As always, be sure to hit up my man PM for all your apparel and sporting goods needs. Even if the content hasn’t made for terrific reading after four straight losses, I am proud to be partnering with him to bring you your weekly dose of musings!
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Nathan Cayless should see some new faces this week. That was yet another pathetic effort.
Did you watch the reserve grade game? They were worse
Yeah, I did. BA has to do something though. We can’t keep trotting out the same non-performers each week.
Interesting take on the game. I feel the fox commentators summed up one big problem with our attack that no one else has recognised. So far in the first 4 rounds are 2nd rowers have offered zero attacking prowess inside the opposition 20. When the halves take the line on inside the 20, the opposition defence doesn’t over mark our 2nd rowers running the lead on a block play as they are not a threat to run through the line. Today we saw what a difference a big framed, hard running forward in Tony Williams added. Suddenly we made space for our outside backs. Somehow we have to have Manu. Tepai and Kenny change their approach to help our attack. Marata Niukore may also be useful in this facet of the game seeing as his has a bigger frame.
I feel Clint Gutherson will also be a big inclusion to our team even if he doesn’t reach his form from last year. His ability to set up our outside backs on the end of attacking plays is far greater than any of the other fullbacks we have used this year. But more importantly, Clint has some of the best push through (following ball runners) in the comp. Currently we have no one pushing up with the ball on the off chance of an offload or quick play the ball. I think these 2 additions from Clint will be huge for parra.
Fair and measured response mate. It definitely feels like our edge backrowers aren’t, well, setting the edge. Be it by design or otherwise we aren’t keeping the defence honest to the short option out wide. It is hard to lump Tepai in there because his role has changed almost weekly from tweener to pure EDGE to prop over the first for rounds but we definitely need to be deploying Manu and Kenny more effectively in that capacity.
You are bang on about Gutherson’s top class support play. There was a half break by Edwards in the second half where he was left bereft of a supporting runner and we ended up turning the ball over. You just KNOW that Gutherson would have been sweating on the pass there. All those little things start adding up quickly when you are sitting in the hole that we have dug for ourselves.
Definitely a change in the way we are using our edge forwards. In previous years they were given early ball to threaten the opposition halves (like Tony Williams in the last 20 minutes today) but lately they are just decoys on block plays. No wonder teams aren’t buying the decoy when they never get the ball.
Im curious for your thoughts on the impact of the change in referee interpretations has been on this team. Last year through aggressive line speed we were able to concede the least meters in the comp, and on top of that our defense is rigidly ‘up and in’ when defending the sweep play. I think this goes a way to explaining the penalty count, and subsequently less line speed following the slew of penalties.
Im still seeing us swarming the opposition down their end of the field, but i think 75% of the time when we’ve had a great defensive start to the set the whistle will blow on tackle 3/4 and it all comes to naught. Its made what was our strongest characteristic mostly ineffective, and i havent seen us in any sort of protracted midfield grind where we usually excel.
On top of that with goal line defence, one of my favourite sights in blue and gold is corey norman or michael jennings reading the play and shutting it down early and i haven’t seen that lately. Im probably clutching at straws, but watching the turn around in this team i feel there has to be something else at play.
As far as the team performance goes –
i think playing three defensive middles (alvaro, mannah and scott) is not helping us to lay a platform for good attacking play. I dont know where Ma’u has gone, and Brown is so much better when he can use his ball playing/agility against a retreating defense. There is absolutely no game plan to speak of in 4 weeks, no management from the halves. Neither of our hookers have offered anything particularly worthwhile either.
I have zero faith in our on line defence at the moment, the softest tries i have seen us concede in years. Auva’a and Moses two of the big chinks in the armor, but other players have sure let us down a lot too. Other thing i’d like to see is some offloads or something, because our offense is an absolute joke.
On the positive side –
I liked George Jennings efforts, give or take those two kicks he let bounce. Im a big fan of Terepo and i thought he tried really hard, and the T-rex was quite impressive.
For next week –
Try something new for our left edge defense, be it Ma’u shifting out to centre, Hoffman moving in closer to centre, or playing Gutherson on crutches.
Terepo into the starting side for Alvaro
Vave onto the bench for Scott
Moeroa and Edwards starting backrow, used effectively.
The issue of defensive aggression in the opposition’s red zone actually popped up as a conversation piece at the game yesterday Kerry. It is definitely negatively tilting both possession and field position because you are bang on about that awful conversion rate after a terrific start to those defensive sets. Those types of penalties are back breaking after putting in that sort of effort.
Sitting here as an armchair coach (and fully aware that I don’t know anywhere near the whole picture – an important distinction) it does feel like we badly misread the officiating climate coming into the season. Despite all the talk of a crackdown on the play-the-ball the real game changer has been the aggressive policing of the 10m offside mark. We haven’t had any real issues with offensive PTB penalties but gee the offsides are killing us.
Hard to disagree with much else mate. Our defence has invoked awful memories of 2012/13 and the reason I floated Mahoney’s name is on account of how little we are getting out of dummy half at the moment.
More than anything else though it just boggles my mind how for three weeks in a row we have given ourselves no realistic chance to win on a fundamental basis. Pulling out a win with a negative ~10% possession is usually a gutsy, stirring affair where you beat the odds. How are you going to be in the same postcode when week after week you are giving away a negative ~20% possession differential!?
A question that keeps cropping up, and that’s appartments from our boring attacking structure, is our level of fitness. Given we changed trainers and training methods, why do we look off the pace in both body shape and aerobic levels.
I have said it previously, we have decent forwards but they shouldn’t all been one team as they are too similar.
Loyalty and not recognising the need to change to some youth and size has hit the team hard, and I am sure BA knows it, but looking at our roster, there is no solution on the horizon.
Hard work and working together on both sides of the ball is the answer, let’s see if the team responds.
We won’t know anything about our fitness until we get equal possession.
Well said pou !!
Precisely Pou, and we aren’t helping the teams confidence to get out of this hole if we question the things like “Our Fitness” when it is not measured against the first half possession rates of 35% for the last two weeks. The fact we may have evened it up a little in the second halves does not discount the negative impact it has for players who train to play 80 minutes with an even share of possession.
Only two of our top 17 are older than 30 this year. Only three in the entire squad.
Agree Jimmy.
Mannah has been one of our best in a poor team this year and cops it.
Same with BA.
On a side note, a top four side doesn’t turn to this rabble without there being internal problems in the playing group imo.
In my humble opinion, one things we also lack is leadership on the field. Nobody ask the team to get together for some comms when a tri was scored or a penalty goal is kicked. We need someone who can lead the pack.