The Cumberland Throw

Stat Attack Preview – Round 18: Eels vs Storm

AAMI PARK, MELBOURNE, VICTORIA

8TH JULY 2017

It’s doubtful whether there would ever be a better opportunity to beat the Storm in Melbourne than this week.

That would be the feeling coming into this weekend’s game. With the Storm decimated by Origin selection and injury, a close to full strength Eels line up should dispose of the ‘baby’ Storm outfit with ease. But as we have seen with the Storm “Next Gen” recently, they can definitely hold their own after two golden point games without the big 3.

Complacency will be the root of the Eels undoing if they fall to the Storm this week. This game is vital in a number of ways. It’s effectively a 4 point game for the Eels with the bye next week and it’s also a chance to fix up our for and against which will be key in securing a finals spot.

Last 10 Games

Season Round Date Eels Storm Venue name Result
2016 11 23-May-2016 6 18 Pirtek Stadium Storm win by 12 points
2015 14 15-Jun-2015 26 22 AAMI Park Eels win by 4 points
2015 9 10-May-2015 10 28 Pirtek Stadium Storm win by 18 points
2014 15 22-Jun-2014 20 46 AAMI Park Storm win by 26 points
2013 24 25-Aug-2013 4 64 AAMI Park Storm win by 60 points
2012 20 21-Jul-2012 16 10 Pirtek Stadium Eels win by 6 points
2011 21 01-Aug-2011 18 22 Pirtek Stadium Storm win by 4 points
2011 5 10-Apr-2011 0 38 AAMI Park Storm win by 38 points
2010 13 04-Jun-2010 24 10 Pirtek Stadium Eels win by 14 points
2009 30 04-Oct-2009 16 23 ANZ Stadium Storm win by 7 points

 

From the last ten clashes between these teams, the Storm hold a 7 – 3 advantage.

Score Aggregate

Eels – 140        Storm – 281

Score Average

Eels – 14          Storm – 28

 

These two teams have played each other a total of 31 times with the Eels victorious on only 12 occasions.

They have only played each other 4 times at AAMI Park with the Storm winning three of those games.

In total, the Storm have played a total of 94 games at the venue for a 70 – 23 record. They have won 8 of their last 10 games there.

In season 2017, the Eels have won 9 and lost 7 and at sit 8th on the ladder. Points wise the Eels score 18.4 per game and let in 20.6. The Storm sit 1st having won 13 and lost 3 whilst scoring at 24.1 per game and conceding 15.6 points.

Both teams have a bye in hand.

By Quarters

0 – 20 20 – 40 40 – 60 60 – 80
Eels 9 8 7 2
Storm 8 8 8 10

 

Going by these numbers, the Eels can match the Storm in scoring points in each period. But again the final 20 minutes is where we come unstuck. We just can’t seem to score points in the final 20 minutes. If we build a big lead we need to keep our foot on the throat and put on as many points as possible.

The Storm are strong front runners with winning 10 of their 13 games while in front at the break. They have also won twice when behind at oranges. Interestingly, the Storm’s 3 losses have all come when leading at half time.

Parramatta also do well when leading at the break with 8 of their 9 wins coming when having their noses in front at half time. They have not conceded a game when up at the break.

Attack:

*average per game (Ranking)

  Eels Storm
Runs 154 (10th) 151 (12th)
Run Metres 1443m (12th) 1472m (9th)
Line Breaks 3.6 (11th) 5 (1st)
Offloads 9.4 (10th) 9.4 (11th)
Tackle Breaks 20.4 (12th) 23.3 (8th)
Possession % 49.1 (13th) 47.4 (16th)
Complete Sets 25.6 (13th) 27.2 (5th)

 

 

 

Defence:

*average per game (Ranking)

Eels Storm
Tackles 324 (6th) 339 (1st)
Missed Tackles 23.8 (6th) 23.2 (4th)
Ineffective Tackles 16.0 (11th) 16.4 (13th)

 

Discipline:

*average per game (Ranking)

Eels Storm
Errors 10.4 (11th) 10.4 (9th)
Penalties Conceded 6.8 (11th) 7.6 (16th)
Incomplete Sets 9.1 (9th) 9.2 (11th)

 

When compiling these sets of stats, I was surprised to see the Storm not really feature too highly in rankings. Really they rate poorly in most areas. The Storm have the worst Possession rate and also concede the most penalties in the competition. So why are they the bench mark?

You can understand penalties as they would give away penalties to get their defensive line set, but ball possession is an interesting one. You would think with the Storm being the bench mark, that ball possession would be high with completion rates similarly high.

They also make more tackles per game than other teams so their fitness and stamina should come into question.

It will be interesting to see if this pattern continues against the Eels. We cannot discount Parramatta’s recent hammering from the officials in second half penalties.

No doubt that Brad Arthur would hammer home the fact that although they are a weakened Storm outfit, they cannot be taken lightly. This Storm side can still get the job done.

This will be a season defining game for the Eels. They need to be ruthless against this young Storm team to make an impression on the competition.

At the moment the 2017 Premiership is pretty much a 2-horse race between the Storm (fully fit) and the Sharks. But other teams need to start rocking the competition and I believe the Eels can do that this week.

Come on boys – let’s be ruthless and ‘bully’ these young Storm players and show how first grade really is. They can’t hide behind the big 3 or Bellamy for much longer.

 

Yours In Blue and Gold

Colmac

Stats courtesy of Champion Data. All these stats and more can be viewed on our match centre at http://mc.championdata.com/nrl/ including live game stats.

Champion Data

Follow @championdatanrl

mc.championdata.com/nrl/

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3 thoughts on “Stat Attack Preview – Round 18: Eels vs Storm

  1. Anonymous

    Like Colmac, I’m surprised by some of the stats that reflect poorly on the Storm. By the same token, when it comes to penalties, you almost get the sense of strategic indiscretions.
    The Storm are masters of getting off the line early in defence and slowing up the ruck with their wrestle. We can’t seem to buy a second half penalty. Wonder how this will play out?

  2. John Eel

    Two of the stats that stand out for me are firstly that they have won 10 fourth quartes to the Eels 2. This is important in that it shows that they no how to finish a game and have good game management. Whether that will still be the case with their spine out for SOO time will tell.

    The second is line breaks which to me is indicative of their discipline. What ever happens you can expect the Eels to start fast out of the blocks with a good first quarter.

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