After an incredibly inspiring effort against many odds to bring down the Warriors, our mighty Eels were brought back to reality at the hands of a Jonathan Thurston lead Cowboys side to register our first loss in Darwin.

Despite a one-sided score line, I actually didn’t think that we were as poor as that differential may have indicated to the average punter. Our first half defence was quite strong and the Cowboys yielded all of their points off the boot. Some slightly better positional play from our outside backs could have prevented the tries that were scored, while a Kenny Edwards late shot on Jonathan Thurston could also have been negated.

Although we don’t live in a world of hypothetical’s, I’ll ask you all to indulge me a little bit. Let’s say that those points don’t happen. We go in with a potentially 0-0 score line at half-time. Or conversely, Corey Norman doesn’t drop the Mitchell Moses pass & we finish the movement we had organised on the left edge and Nathan Davis doesn’t drop the ball in his open passage to the line. Suddenly our boys are going into the sheds up 8, 10 or 12-0. Completely different game again & when you’re playing the Cowboys it’s those little moments where the game is either won or lost. The quick flurry of points to seal the game after half-time from the Cowboys likely doesn’t happen either, as the momentum of the match is running in a very different direction & it’s something we’ve got to be much better at moving into the back part of the season.

I have no doubt that when we start taking our opportunities we will click into gear. You can see at the moment we’re just a wayward pass; one drop ball being caught; one miss-kick; or one defensive misread away from having very different results in our games; and it’s something we can ill-afford against St George Illawarra today.

We showed in our victory back in round 2 from the first minute the second we take our opportunities, we can punish our opposition. That 7 try outing proved as such. When Russell Packer dropped the ball from the kick off, we went on with it. Clint Gutherson scored a play or two later and from that point the Dragons never looked in it.

In fact the good starts have been a theme to many of our victories this year, never once being beaten (to date) after establishing a half-time lead.

Loves Playing the Dragons: Corey Norman will be looking to bounce back to his best after last week, against a side he traditionally produces very well against

So what does this tell us about our side?

Largely that we’re a confidence based side. When we start well & feel everything is working, we trust those structures we train heavily for. However, when errors creep into our game or the fluency with the ball isn’t quite there & if we concede points early, we find it hard to shake off until the game is gone.

It’s something we can ill-afford against the Dragons this afternoon.

Up until last week’s loss to the Bulldogs, their round 2 loss to us was probably the only major blemish on an unexpectedly impressive season thus far. Not many (myself included) viewed this team as a finals contender coming into season 2017. However, their impressive forward pack has laid the platform for a middle-orientated game that’s provided Gareth Widdop with the time & space to create for his outside men. Josh Dugan has also found form at the back & looked particularly dangerous before picking up an injury prior to the Origin period.

I believe at the moment, the Dragons season is sitting on the precipice. Despite their impressive start, they could really go either way right now – assert themselves as the finals bound team they’ve looked most of the year; or plunge to the depths of the September-free football we were all expecting them to before the season commenced.

Their Coach, Paul McGregor, vocalised his thoughts about his team performance since the rep season started, indicating that he doesn’t believe his side have replicated the strong performances they produced over the opening 8-10 rounds of the competition.

It’s hard to disagree with that sentiment if you look at their run of games. They’ve been largely interrupted with origin affected games & the bye, with the only football they played in the last 4-5 weeks a Widdop-less victory over the Warriors, as well as a narrow victory over the Tigers. Outside of that they have either lost or not played.

Our boys on the other hand have played all the way through, being heavily affected by injury and are limping our way towards our first bye of the year.

Forwards Battle: The Big Men will go a long way to deciding this one

So what does this mean for both sides?

EVERYTHING. Today’s match takes on so much importance in the scheme of our seasons.

The Dragons need it to consolidate a position inside the top 8, particularly now that some doubt has started to creep back into the minds of their critics on the back of their lack of football the last month. They’ll want to win to starve them off & feel a little more comfortable about their run into September.

Our boys on the other hand have an opportunity to get back into the top 8, produce a four-point win & give the remaining cavalry an opportunity to return for the back half of the year (which is a much more favourable draw compared to that of the earlier season fixtures), but it won’t happen without nullifying some of the Dragons key threats first. Let’s have a look at them below:

Kurt Mann: He’s been a much maligned player since finding himself in the Red V, but Kurt Mann has produced some strong performances since deputising for Gareth Widdop. Even in the Dragons Captain’s return he’s maintained a spot in the side & can produce some dangerous attacking football on his day. Many a judge have deemed is best position to be in the 6, but today he finds himself in the centres & will likely be lining up against Michael Jennings, who is set to return from injury. Kurt can create for his outside players if not handled correctly, but he is also the type of player who we can take advantage of. It’s been a long time since he’s played centre consistently & he hasn’t done it without playing in the safety net of the Storm’s defensive line. Some good early ball to our left edge could produce some space & results if we’re able to isolate him into 1-1 positions.

Nene MacDonald: MacDonald gets the Dragons set on the front foot with his strong kick returns & donkey work from the back quarter of the field. His frame makes him difficult to take & often sees him run over the top of his opponents. We will have to be particularly vigilant against him in the air this afternoon. The further away from this man we put our attacking kicks, the better. Both he & Faifai Loa are strong returners of the ball (however the latter has his moments under the high ball, wink-wink Mitchell Moses). The more he has to turn & chase the better, as players with his build generally don’t have the best lateral movement. Some timely grubbers in behind the line could get him second guessing & that will only create room for us with the ball in hand.

Aerial Raid: The Dragons will look to Nene MacDonald with cross-field kicks this Sunday

Tim Lafai: It’s been a massive return to form this year for Tim Lafai, following some up-and-down form over the last few seasons. He has the spring back in his step that was one of the stables of his attacking football back when he played with the Bulldogs. Strong and with a knack of sucking in his defenders, Lafai could produce some damage if not tackled ball-and-all. Given he will be lining up against our defensive right edge this afternoon, it is the upmost importance that we don’t allow him any room to move, as he has the ability to expose us. Some timely Kenny Edwards roughing up should do the trick here (emphasis on timely Kenny!).

Gareth Widdop: Gareth Widdop has been one of the form players of the year so far, and even though some of it has been interrupted by injury, he is still polling highly in many of the major NRL stats, as well as the Dally M Medal count before it went behind closed doors this week. With his forwards getting over the advantage line consistently, Widdop has shined & been able to turn the once lacklustre Dragons attack into the (currently) best in the competition. There will be some slight doubts over the try-less effort against the Bulldogs last week, so he’ll be keen to have a big one. Never rush out of the line on a player like Widdop unless you’re keeping your line in-tact. He’ll expose you otherwise. Keep it in-tact however & he can become void of ideas. Pressuring both he & McCrone’s kicking game will make a world of difference this afternoon, particularly if our forwards get ahead in the middle battle. If you stop the middle men, you stop Widdop. He has shown when rushed he can be forced into passes over the sideline or misdirected kicks.

In Great Form: Gareth Widdop has played brilliantly in 2017

Russell Packer & Paul Vaughan: These two big men in the middle are colossal. On their day both can get over the advantage line with ease. Packer in particular has a knack of finding his knees and feet very quickly when taken down & can generate plenty of quick play the balls as a result. Vaughan on the other hand is the tough, aggressive head just ready to cart it up again & again. Both are metre eaters, yet both can go missing when you meet fire with fire. If you keep these two busy defensively then fatigue reduces their effectiveness significantly & wearing them out goes a long way to getting the result against the Dragons. We showed this in our Round 2 victory in Wollongong & will have to reproduce it again today. Wear them down and we’ll negate the strengths that they bring. Some sneaky second phase play could work a treat here.

Tariq Sims & Joel Thompson: Tariq Sims has started to find some of the form that had him considered for State of Origin only a few years ago, while Thompson continues to be one of the best hole runners on the fringe of the ruck in the NRL. However Tariq has largely played in the middle throughout 2017 & his re-introduction to the edge (likely on the Dragons right) could mean he has some lateral rust. Given that he’s likely to be defending inside of Kurt Mann, who also hasn’t played much on the edge in recent times & I know where I’ll be targeting my runners at. On the flipside, if anyone wants to know just how damaging Joel Thompson can be, look no further than his round 1 hat-trick against Penrith. If our right edge isn’t switch on, this is the type of damage he can do. Go get him Kenny!

Damaging Hole Runner: Joel Thompson will have to be managed this afternoon

Jack de Bellin: We often hear Andrew Johns sing this mains praises with very hyperbolic & excitable description, but it’s for good reason. Jack de Bellin has been tremendous this year, making plenty of metres, a rock defensively in the middle third & generating plenty of second-phase play. Both he & Vaughan in particular have produced some very timely offloads that have results in plenty of Dragons tries. We know he’s going to produce many games with like-for-like stats each week, he’s developed into that type of player with his consistency, however things such as his offloads & ability to play at the line can be the difference to conceding points & not.

Cameron McInnes: The crafty hooker will go down as one of the best buys of the year once the season is over. Defensively strong, leads the line well, while producing passes to get his forwards over the advantage line. Limiting his time & the ability he has to get the forwards rolling will come down to both our line speed & how well we win the ruck. Failing to do this, he’ll have a field day. Mastering it however & he’s taken out of the game. His performance will be completely dictated by the performance of our middle.

Work Him Over: Preventing McInnes from getting the forwards rolling is vital to an Eels victory

The forward battle is always incredibly important in rugby league & none more so than today. I already alluded to the importance of today’s game to both sides & our forwards have to be hungry for this one. The withdrawal of Tepai Moeroa is a big loss, particularly defensively & it’ll be interesting to see what direction we go now that Kenny Edwards has been promoted into the starting lineup, along with the expected return of Michael Jennings.

It’s a big task for Mannah, Alvaro & Brown to hold down the middle third defensively across the first 20 minutes against this big St George pack, but if they do so I believe we have the firepower off the bench to take advantage in the next quarter of the game.

I said this leading out our last fixture against the Dragons & I’ll say it here again now. If we frustrate the Dragons into repeat defensive sets and get them playing under fatigue, the Red V of the last 18 months will quickly show themselves again. Just as if we encourage them with a little bit of space and time, their confidence will build and the Dragons will put in some of the great attacking performances they have this year.

Early points will be key to both sides in the match. Had we gotten over the line when we were looking likely in the first 5 minutes against North Queensland last week, a very different outcome would have likely taken place. If we can turn those chances into points, particularly in the first 20 when we have to contain Packer & Vaughan, we will lead from the front & do enough to grab the two points. Failure to do this will likely swing the result the other way.

Regardless, today is a real opportunity for us to build some confidence & build some momentum, but it will only come about if we take our opportunities.

Clint

All images courtesy of the Parramatta Eels, NRL.com and Getty Images.

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