The Cumberland Throw

Crystal Ball – Top 8 Predictions: Season 2017

I don’t know what you guys fill your time with over summer, but as you can probably tell from our website and social media contributions, all we do here at TCT is sit around thinking about the next NRL season.

In our second instalment of Crystal Ball, we’re going to try our hand at predicting Season 2017’s Top 8 (in order) and the wooden spoon. Each poster is also going to nominate a bolter (a team they think will go better than most expect) and a falter (a team they think will go worse than most expect) and their tip for the wooden spoon.

There’s only a few days left before Season 2017, so let the games begin.

 

Mitch
1. I swear Josh Hodgson is a wizard. Their forward pack is maybe the best in the NRL.
2. Moylan, Martin and Peachy could take them all the way, but the weight of expectation is high. Apparently the Nines showed James Tamou is a back.
3. This year. Surely.
4. Still have the close to the best three players in the world in their respective positions. Munster,  Addo-Carr and a non-nonsense forward pack could push them into Top 4. Old dogs, same tricks.
5. At least Melbourne spread around their aging bodies. Thurston’s shoulders are too old to be the lone saviour for them to win it again this year (no disrespect to Jason Taumalolo or the constantly hungover Ethan Lowe).
6. Corey Parker is a big loss, but there’s still too much talent to deny them a Top 8 spot.
7. I thought we’d be better placed until I tried to work out which teams I think we were better than. Corey, our forward pack and backline won’t be a problem. It’s the guys wearing the 6 and 9 who’ll determine our ladder position.
8. This could easily be the Sharks, but it didn’t make sense for the Roosters to be as bad as they were last year, assuming Mitchell Pearce can keep his eyes off all that Bondi tail. A lot of good young players too.
B. I think the Warriors can finally put it together for a full season. Surely. Still, it’s tough for me to trust Judas Kieran Foran.
F. I don’t understand the hype with Manly, they’ll be dreadful. Also, without Barba but more importantly no Ennis – forget about it Sharks fans. You had 2017 – The porch light is off, we found Harold Holt, prepare for the let down.
S. The Dragons don’t have a first grade quality halfback, and no forward pack outside of Packer and Vaughn. All the best, Dragons.
 Sixties
1. The positives – JT, pack, Ponga. With JT, they’re possible minor premiers. No JT, they’re my falter. Simple.
2. Potentially elite spine. Seem to have found defensive mojo, which is the key to any successful premiership campaign.
3. Norman, French – they’re both X factors. Throw in BA, a strong pack, good depth and committed defence. Gutho will succeed.
4. Strong across the park. A year older. Should be there, but cap dramas have already forced players out. Will more follow?
5. The usual culprits – Bellamy, Smith, Cronk – they’ll take them a long way. A load to carry but usually up to it. No Smith, goodbye Storm.
6. Solid team but potentially sliding. They will miss Parker. Is it a happy camp?
7. A good coach and the talent is there. Pearce is a quality half at club level.
8. Make or break with Hayne. Surely he’ll fire this year. Surely.
B. Roosters – Last year probably took them off the radar. The Auckland Nines gave a hint of how good they can be.
F. The Sharks successfully grasped their one year premiership window but there’s no Barba or Ennis this season. Honourable mention to the Warriors.
S. The Knights will improve but lack the cattle.
 Chris
1. Always win at home. Have been potting them for years and always end up with egg on my face. Smith is due a season ender surely?
2. Plenty of options in the pack although backs might be a bit thin.
3. I like the way they play but still inexperienced and vulnerable under pressure. Coach is a goof.
4. Expect big improvement. Have some good youngsters coming through and are due a sweet run with injuries.
5. Those who claim Moylan is the next Lockyer are right. He will be the best player in the game in two years.
6. A good run with injuries will see BA get these boys into 6th. Would be higher with a proper home ground.
7. I rate their halves very highly.
8. They will still make the 8, unfortunately. Hate Fifita as a person but would love him in the Eels front row.
B. I’ll say the Roosters. I do expect Pearce to have an excellent year, just not for NSW.
F. Tipping significant injury list for the Cowboys, here’s hoping anyway. The Warriors are bound to implode, we could use their accountant (sorry, shouldn’t go there). The Broncos and Manly don’t fill me with a great deal of confidence either.
S. The Dragons have the worst roster in living memory. Must be spending 50% of the cap.
Forty
1. I am still not completely sold on Anthony Griffin as their head coach but their 2016 campaign was impress. James Tamou adds serious strike power. Injuries have always been the bane of the Panthers but if they stay healthy in general they will be right up there at the end of Round 26.
2. One year soon will be the year that the Storm finally crumble as a perennial Top 4 power house. Maybe 2018. Billy Slater is still parked in the injury ward but Cameron Munster is a hell of a deputy to have on the books. NYC eligible half Brodie Croft made a reasonable impression in the preseason and will be a serious contender for the #6 jersey
3. Cheap houses or no, Kalyn Ponga’s decision to leave the club in 2018 and James Tamou’s departures may signal eventual decline in their roster, but for 2017 they still look pretty schmick though. Jason Taumalolo is the single biggest point-of-difference weapon in the middle channel of the field and that Jonathan Thurston bloke ain’t half bad either.
4. The public opinion on our boys varies wildly after a tumultuous 2016. The entirety of the Big League staff have the Eels missing the Top 8 while there was a surprisingly large swell of support among the neutral pundits on Reddit for a Top 4 berth. I am subscribing firmly to the latter. Cautious fans will point to roster weaknesses at hooker and five-eighth as reasons against an automatic ticket to the second week of the finals but I believe the Eels have the talent elsewhere and the depth in general to swing a lusty blow into the post-season. Bevan French will be electric at fullback.
5. A minor slide for one of the surprise packets of 2016. Exceptional attacking weapons and some of the best young players across the pack and backline. However, their blockbuster play-style that was predicated on tackle busts doesn’t lend itself well to high levels of sustained success. They will still be a serious threat in 2017, mind you.
6. Pearce is a complete bust in the arena of Origin but he remains one of the most consistently excellent club-level halves in the NRL. Connor Watson looks to be ready to build on an exciting rookie season and their pack contains some of the most fearsome forwards in the competition. They should win more than they lose and as crazy as it sounds, that is a solid formula for making the Top 8.
7. World Club Challenge aside, 2017 could still be a challenging year by the lofty standards of the Broncos. They will be leaning on a swathe of young forwards while James Roberts is a week-to-week proposition on the discipline front. Anthony Milford is a superstar and will single-handedly win them games throughout the season while their dream schedule, gifted to them by Channel 9, will likely get them into the business end of the season.
8. The Sharks do not feel like a roster built to win forever and it was to their credit that they took the title home in 2016 given their closing premiership window. Valentine Holmes will finally get a chance to show us exactly what he has got in the #1 after Ben Barba missed the league seminar explaining why White Line Fever is big no-no on and off the field. I’m tipping them to scrape home into the Top 8.
B. I have regularly scoffed at the indulgent media hype that has surrounded Penrith each and every season over the last five years. 2017 feels different. They have a terrifyingly well balanced roster with a pair of talented young halves that have enabled splashy purchases in other key areas. Waqa Blake is starting to become the player he was once hyped up to be. They might just be the real deal this season.
F. Cronulla are the low hanging fruit here. Premiership hangover, loss of two quality spine players. Aging roster. You can rattle off a litany of reasons without any serious thought. There is still plenty of talent in their ranks but teams are going to aim up on a weekly basis against them.
S. I am going to buck the two most popular trends here (Knights/Dragons) and throw a little bit of petrol onto the fire of our quintessential rivalries in our platinum club anniversaries by naming Manly for the spoon. A struggling young coach, behind the scenes power struggles with the Fulton clan and a roster that is desperately lacking talent – Manly have the makings of a maiden spoon campaign.
Clint
1. After witnessing their trial match against our Eels at Penrith last week, all I can say is wow. Their defence has improved out of sight and their roster is brilliant. The only question mark is the development of their halves. Personally I think they’re another year off from claiming the flag, but their pack and outside backs will give them every opportunity to do so.
2. They’ll be strong throughout the season proper, but the more experienced sides in the Top 8 will stamp their authority over them at the business end of the season. I liken them a lot to the Eels sides of the late 90s, getting pipped at the post.
3. With Scott & Taumalolo creating plenty of space for Thurston, Morgan and Granville to do their thing, they remain a genuine threat. A great backrow, with solid outside backs they’ll be contenders, but only so long as they check their ego at the door with Kalyn Ponga. The kid is quality and should be in the starting 17.
4. Every year we wait for Melbourne to regress and every year it doesn’t happen. Cronk & Smith have a well oiled machine with players that know their role. Defensively strong with forwards like Bronwich, McLean, Harris and young Asofa-Solomona who get over the advantage line.
5.  With a healthy roster at their disposal, I expect them to shoot back up the ladder. Luke Keary provides great support to Mitchell Pearce and former Eel Michael Gordon provides a steadying influence and the goal kicking prowess they missed last year. They’ll be 2017s big improvers.
6. The team with the best depth in the competition. The forward pack is brilliant, the outside backs are classy and their defence is fearsome. They will grind many teams out throughout the year and have a classy half in Corey Norman who can capitalize on field position. That being said, if he goes down, the Eels attacking options will have some serious questions. Regardless, they’ll be competitive all year, with many games being won and/or lost in the 1-12 margin, but the health of Norman is vital.
7. When they’re on, they will destroy their opposition. Their spine is the New Zealand national spine and if they’re given half an inch, they’ll pile the points on. I think they’re a year away from really pushing up the ladder and this season will build the platform for the next.
8. Quality spine. Kevin Proctor and Jarrod Wallace are great purchases & if Jarryd Hayne finds form, they’ll be very strong. That being said, they lack forward depth and Ryan James probably needs one other middle man for them to push for top 4. Nathan Peats injury weakens the side and they’ll miss him while he’s out.
B. I’ve backed them into 5th already so it is hard to go passed the Roosters. With a strong showing at the Auckland Nines and a revitalised roster they will be right in the mix come September.
F. Michael Ennis’ real value to the Sharks will be proven this year and it’s a big step up for Jayden Brailey. Throw into the mix that they’re now the hunted and everyone will be aiming up to playing them each week, plus the likelihood of many of their stars playing rep footy (as what tends to happen the year following a premiership), I think the NRL side will slide as a result.
S. Newcastle have the most inexperienced squad in the competition. They’ve made some shrewd investments for the future and will be a much more competitive side than last year. I expect a lot more spirit out of them, but at present have the weakest roster in the competition.
Colmac
1. With the big 3 about to retire plus other top class players gone or going in Proctor and Harris, this may be the Storm’s Empire falling but they will go out with a bang.
2. If you saw the trial last week you can understand why I have them at 2. They do have quality across the park and youth is on their side. But injury will no doubt yet again play a major factor in their season.
3. Quality signings. Depth is Parra’s major playing card. We got found out late last year with injuries and suspensions. BA has recruited very wisely. Only issue is how our halves pairing will go.
4. Played well in the back end of last season and will pretty much have the same squad this year. So that binds well for them. Always has up and down seasons. Sticky will no doubt have them primed from Round 1, not Round 14.
5. Similar to Storm. An aging roster that only works with one ‘cog’. Once that ‘cog’ is missing then you will see the true Cowboys. Missing Tamou and Matt Scott will see more time on the bench then paddock this year.
6. I wasn’t real impressed with their World Club performance, but I think they will be in the mix definitely. Will miss Parker’s experience and will Ben Hunt see out the year?
7. Will be much more improved than last year with their stars back. But I can also see a bit of 2016 pop its head through the season too.
8. Elgey and Taylor will form a great young pairing in the halves. Just don’t listen to the bloke up the back who wants to control everything. Also Proctor is a great buy and gives their forward pack quality.
B. Hard to split the two Western Sydney rivals in Parramatta and Penrith here. A Top 4 finish for both would certainly send a jolt through the competition.
F. I said it soon as full time went last year’s Grand Final that Cronulla won’t make the 8 in 2017. Will struggle for consistency and will miss Michael Ennis more than they would miss Gallen.
S. Really can’t go past the Knights. Their best play maker done for steroids and no real quality signings. Will win more games than 2016 you would hope for their fans but will still be anchored at the bottom.
DK
1. One word – Thurston.
2. This is all dependent on a fit Billy Slater. Cronk/Slater/Smith – it’s hard to go past even an aging spine like that.
3.. The inclusion of Tamou, the continued development of Cartwright and Peachey will see this team place in the Top 4.
4. Josh Hodgson is the real key to the Raider’s success this year.
5. Our backline will shine as our forwards flatten their opponents this year. The Eels make a triumphant return to Finals Footy.
6. After Adam Reynolds heals from his third injury of 2017 the Rabbitohs will have a final surge before Reynolds sustains another injury finishing their season (followed by a heated call from Russell Crowe).
7. The Titans sneak home after Jarryd starts training for his dream of representing Australia in the 20/20 Cricket World Cup.
8. This year’s under performers. No Mick Ennis will equate to a loss of sting (or sledge), killer instinct and knock out punch.
B. I think Newcastle will come 14th or 15th but to paraphrase a character from Seinfeld “No spoon for you”.
F. No amount of viagra can harden up Bennett’s coaching this year. With a roster like they have you’d expect Top 8 but I don’t think it’s in the cards for Broncs this year.
S. I don’t think things will go the Roosters’ way this year. Lots of frustrating games where they compete, but somehow find a way to lose by the barest of margins

Go you Eels,

Mitch

If you liked this article, you might consider supporting The Cumberland Throw.

23 thoughts on “Crystal Ball – Top 8 Predictions: Season 2017

  1. parra-matters

    I love how all the so called experts are writing parra off because we don’t have a no.6?
    Did they watch the last 8 rounds last year? Gutherson was our no.6 and had a steady but not brilliant no.7 in Robson inside him. Put the magician Norman inside him and do they think we will go worse?
    Add Nathan Brown, Vave and Matagi in the forwards and we are in better shape than last year where we would have made the 8 if we didn’t lose 12pts.
    I can Parra finishing anywhere from 4th-7th.
    I think the Raiders are over hyped.
    The Panthers will do well and finish top 4.
    Storm will be up there and same Cowboys.
    1. Storm
    2. Cowboys
    3. Panthers
    4. Titans
    5. Eels
    6. Raiders
    7. Broncos
    8. Roosters

    1. mitch Post author

      I love this style of thinking – my only concern is that a lot of clubs have also gotten better (Warriors, Penrith w Tamou and return of Martin, Roosters with Keary).

      IF (a big if) we do have a weak spine, I’m hoping our brutal forward pack will make up for it.

  2. Mitchy

    Penrith – talent around spine; big forwards
    Nth Qld – same as above and confident backs
    Melbourne – should go ok, but rep season may hurt, and injuries with Slater
    Canberra – should go well at home, but could there be issues with players moving on?
    Easts – lot of pressure on them, and think Robinson is a decent coach; Hastings gone and Kleary in.
    Parra – we know why we will make 8.
    Cronulla – should make 8 with those fwds; and good experience.
    NZ Warriors – backs are v good; so they should win most at home and the ones away…..

    *Warriors have to improve with their spine and the talent to pick from; even Hayson would bet on that.
    *Brisbane to not make 8, and possible issues with players moving on; and stubborn Bennett
    *Titans to be wooden spooner’s; I love King Henry, but think if Hayne makes the year about him and where he goes, the TEAM may suffer.
    I have tipped some different teams as I think some years throw new improvers, and Parra and NZ Warriors both make 8. I also think Melb and Brisbane will not be as powerful as they have been.

    1. mitch Post author

      Titans for the spoon is very brave with such a terrific spine, Hayne, Proctor with Ryan James and McQueen. Surely the Knights or the Dragons will beat them and others in the race for the bottom?

      1. Mitchy

        ha Cheers Miatch; I am a traditionalist more often than not; and proudly wear my cotton Parra jersey and I really think NRL misses the point when not referring teams by their Area and mascot i.e. Parramatta Eels. I watch or used to a lot of EPL and we do not hear them called as much by the mascot, as in Liverpool etc.
        I also think Titans could go pear shaped if talk of movement about their dummy half and Hayne already talking about his future.
        I also think Melbourne forwards who move on do not have as much impact without Cronk / Smith etc.

  3. shane(norman is the best)

    Great read, I think 1Panthers ( will improve, have a great roster)
    2 Camberra (played well last year and will get better)
    3 ROOSTERS (top side who had a bad year)
    4 Storm (always puts in though will struggle with Procter gone and Harris out injured)
    5 Titans (have their best team since being in thecomp though not real good depth)
    6 Eels (as long as Norman stays fit and on the paddock as I think Gutho will go alright but learning and not rapped in our dummy halves option which puts a lot of pressure on Norman and a question mark over French)
    7 Souths (will improve as has a better roster this year)
    8 Cowgirls (aging roster on the downward spiral)
    Bolter Eels if we can keep the same spine
    Falter Bronco’s (weakest roster they ever had and players leaving)
    Spoon Knights (will win more than last year but are still rebuilding for the future)

    1. mitch Post author

      Even though I did too, my greatest apprehension with my list was suggesting Cronulla would miss the 8. It is a huge call. Regardless, whatever happens this comp is wide open.

  4. Chris Hinkley

    1 – Penrith, didn’t go overboard with moves over the offseason which is exactly what they needed to do, tamou is a massive addition to their pack
    2- Cowboys, as long as Thurston is there they’ll always be top 4 threats
    3- roosters, Pearce has 3 days to stay out of trouble before the season starts, assuming he achieves that and injuries don’t strike as hard as they did last year they’ll be right up there
    4-Broncos, didn’t lose too many big names if any, and Benji Marshall is my pick for turn around player of the year under Wayne Bennett
    5-Eels, we have a point to prove this year, our defence is a massive strong point and will be a key in a strong season this year
    6- souths, Robbie Farah will play so much better with the freedom of not answering to Jason Taylor, and will lead an already strong forward pack convincingly
    7, Storm- this could just be me but I don’t think the storm will be as good as we think this year, slater is a massive question mark for me, especially given his age and injury and I also don’t believe munster will be as effective in the halves as he was at fullback. Just my opinion
    8-Titans, hayne with a whole offseason under his belt means the potential for him to go back to his best in the nrl is pretty much a given. Probably the most underrated forwards in the league too.

    Spooners-Dragons
    Bolter- Eels, outside of us biased parramatta faithful, no one thinks we will succeed. Watch us prove them wrong.
    Falter- Warriors, more games outside NZ than in NZ with this rocks and diamonds team is enough for me to think they’ll fail

    1. mitch Post author

      a lot of confidence in Benji Mr Hinkley – but agree Robbie Farah could be a sneaky addition. There is a stack of good teams, just hope our defence does the job for us.

  5. Parrastew

    I bleed Blue & Gold but DKs bolter call has got my backing, Dream big Newcastle 14th or 15th you can do it!!!!

    My faulter has the big money fullback who has a proven spoon record.

    1. DK Eel

      cheers Parrastew!

      I think Newcastle will win more than they did last year …… tho is that really a huge feat?

      Be prepared for the big parade down from Turton Road, past Supa Putt Putt all the way , down Griffiths road, past Hawkins oval , to finish down on King Street at the Town Hall.

      14th or 15th …. it’s not a bridge too far Newcastle!

  6. Sinners

    Here is.my top 10 because it will be that close. In no order because it depends on injuries first. Then the draw and then combinations/form and contract renewals.

    Panthers
    Raiders
    Warriors
    Storm
    Eels
    Roosters
    Broncos
    Cowboys
    Souths
    Sharkies
    Every other team will be bottom 6.
    Parra have a major problem in the 9 and 6. I just dont rate gutho or degois to get us past week 1 of finals. Should make a play for segeyaro and send degois to england. If gutho fails in the first 4 weeks we should play someone else there maybe french

    1. mitch Post author

      I pretty much agree with your Top 10 mate – I think you’ve nailed it, I just might make it 11 and add the Titans.

      Souths, Sharks, Broncos, Eels, Roosters, Titans in some order in spots 6-11 for mine.
      Dogs and Manly to slide into 12 and 13.
      Tigers, Dragons, Knights taking the bottom three positions.

      But who knows?

  7. Jye

    1. Raiders
    2. Storm
    3. Cowboys
    4. Roosters
    5. Panthers
    6. Titans
    7. Eels
    8. Tigers

    9. Warriors
    10. Rabbitohs
    11. Broncos
    12. Bulldogs
    13. Sharks
    14. Sea-Eagles
    15. Dragons
    16. Knights

    1. mitch Post author

      I must say Jye you’re the first person I’ve seen brave enough to put the Tigers in the 8.

      Sharks, Broncos and Warriors missing out too.

      Every year something crazy happens, you might have nailed it for 2017.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

%d bloggers like this: