TCT SuperCoach: Your Weekly Guide to Surviving the Season

Round 16, the second mini-bye round of the season, brought plenty of chaos. There were some enormous scores, some disappointing performances, and some unfortunate injuries.

Congratulations to Mark’s side, Mark’s Kookaburras, who topped the TCT league this week with a strong 1,412 points. With more than 400 points now separating him from second place, Chris’ side, Senior Paulo, looks well clear of the competition in the overall TCT standings.

My Team

I finished Round 16 with an underwhelming 1,227 points.

I entered the mini-bye round with 21 active players, so I was in a strong position. Unfortunately, it felt like everything that could go wrong did go wrong. So, here’s this week’s whinge:

• I traded out Scott Drinkwater for Mark Nawaqanitawase. Marky Mark scored 101 points, which was great. Unfortunately, Drinky also scored 100 points.
• After seeing Kalyn Ponga drop out of the Knights side and Fletcher Sharpe shift to fullback, I took the VC off Greg Marzhew and placed it on Sharpe instead. Sharpe got off to a flyer, scoring two tries within the opening stages, and I was on cloud nine expecting a score of 150+, only for him to finish on a disappointing 74 points.
• I played Oliver Pascoe, who managed just 29 minutes and scored 31 points.
• I also reserved Harry Grant over Te Maire Martin. I knew Grant was likely to come off the bench after backing up from Origin, but that didn’t stop him from scoring 80 against the Roosters in the previous mini-bye round. Unfortunately, he managed only 36 points this time around.
• That decision proved costly, with TMM punching out a massive 106 points while sitting outside my playing squad.
• Despite playing similar minutes, Joe Tapine recorded his lowest score of the season with just 37 points. I missed the game, but Melbourne must have done an outstanding job containing him.
• To top it all off, Jackson Ford, who has been my FRF gun since Round 4, tore his pec and will miss the remainder of the regular season.
• Fortunately, I captained Herbie Farnworth. However, after an early try, I was expecting even more than the 94 points he eventually produced.

Round 16 Review

Let’s break down the key SuperCoach takeaways from Round 16:

Premium Guns

Sua Fa’alogo (FLB – $690.8k – 139 points):

Sua was involved in absolutely everything last round, finishing with a try, two try assists, six tackle breaks, two line breaks, three line break assists, and some of the goal-kicking. After averaging just 50.3 points across games against the Tigers, Eels, and Bulldogs, he’s responded by averaging 103.7 points over his past three matches. As an owner, I’m very happy I held through the rough patch while many coaches sold. However, if I wasn’t an owner, I’m not sure I’d have the confidence to buy him back with trades running low. If you sold him, you simply have to accept that scores like this will happen every now and then, because Sua is simply electric.

Sua Fa’alogo tore Canberra to shreds!

Mark Nawaqanitawase (CTW – $686.5k – 101 points):

While Marky Mark remains heavily reliant on tries, that’s simply what he does. Another two-try performance last round gave him his third ton and fifth score above 90 this season. For me, he’s a buy this week. Although he’ll miss Round 18, he could quickly become unaffordable with a breakeven of six and a good matchup against a struggling Broncos side this week.

Mid-Range Movers

Arama Hau (2RF/FRF – $491.6k – 97 points):

Like myself, many coaches sold Arama Hau around Round 10 when it became clear he’d lost his 80-minute edge role. However, Hau appears to have regained that role. On top of that, he’s started picking up attacking stats, resulting in scores of 92 and 97 in his last two outings. Surprisingly, he’s still owned by 15% of teams, although I’d imagine a decent chunk of that comes from inactive coaches. At under $500k with dual-positioning, Hau could be a very handy pickup if he continues to play like this.

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (FLB – $564.5k – 154 points):

Playing on the wing, Charnze posted the highest SuperCoach score of his career with four tries and four line breaks against the Cowboys. Owned by fewer than 1,000 teams and carrying a breakeven of nine, he’s the sort of player I’d love to take a punt on. The Warriors have favourable matchups coming up against the Dolphins, Tigers, Dragons, Bulldogs and Titans. The concern, however, is the uncertainty surrounding Alofi Khan-Pereira’s return, as well as the Warriors’ bye during the final major bye round when numbers become critical.

Seeing Charnze score four tries would’ve hurt AKP owners!

Moeaki Fotuaika (FRF – $452.1k – 98 points):

With Tino sidelined, Moe stepped up as captain and produced 78 points in base from 73 minutes. Historically, he’s never been particularly SuperCoach relevant due to limited minutes, averaging just 43.7 per game before last week. However, if he can consistently play 65+ minutes, he could become a fantastic FRF option for the run home at a very affordable price.

Players of Concern

Oliver Pascoe (HOK – $528k – 31 points):

Many SuperCoach players, myself included, thought the hooker position was sorted after Pascoe burst onto the scene a few weeks ago. However, he was taken from the field after just 29 minutes against Penrith. Coach Josh Hannay later stated that “Penrith did a really good job of wearing Ollie down”, leaving some uncertainty around his role moving forward. While nearly 3,000 coaches have already traded him out, I think he’s a hold this week until we get more clarity. That said, with his role still unclear, I won’t be selecting him in my starting side.

Pascoe’s big minute role is now in question

Greg Marzhew (CTW – $699.7k – 35 points):

Since his monster 207-point score in Round 10, Marzhew has averaged just 53 points per game. That decline has resulted in a significant price drop, and with a breakeven of 168, Marzhew will continue to lose cash. Despite that, I still think he’s a hold. It’s become increasingly clear that Marzhew is heavily dependent on Ponga. This season, he’s averaged 50.7 points without him compared to 100.8 points when Ponga plays (excluding Round 2, when Ponga suffered an injury after 25 minutes). Given Ponga is back in the side this week, owners should be expecting a strong score from Marzhew in a favourable matchup against the Tigers.

My Trades

At this stage, I’m planning on making the following moves:

• Kai Pearce-Paul >>> Tony Sukkar
• Jackson Ford >>> Tom Jenkins (via flex)

Season-ending pec injuries to both Kai Pearce-Paul and Jackson Ford mean they’ll be making way this week.

I’ll be bringing in Tony Sukkar, who played 80 minutes on the edge last round and scored 66 points entirely in base. The move also frees up some cash for future trades. With Seyfarth thriving at lock during Twal’s absence before moving back to the bench this week, I’m hoping he and Twal share the middle workload, leaving Sukkar with an 80-minute edge role for the run home.

I’ll also be bringing in Tom Jenkins, a player I’ve had my eye on for much of the season but simply haven’t been able to fit into my side until now. I’m expecting a huge score against the Cowboys this week. While he may struggle a little in Round 18 without some of Penrith’s Origin stars around him, I’m happy to lock in one of this season’s best CTWs for the remainder of the year.

Captaincy

VC – Herbie Farnworth vs Warriors (H)

Herbie remains a genuine VC or captaincy option every week. I’m hoping he can terrorise the Warriors at Suncorp, but he’ll need a massive score for me to loop and pass on the option below.

Captaincy – Nathan Cleary vs Cowboys (A)

Pretty straightforward. Cleary gets a matchup against a shaky Cowboys defence, and I’m backing him to surpass his breakeven of 110 and push beyond the $1m mark.

Best of luck everyone. Drop your thoughts, trades and captaincy calls below!

SC Adrian

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