The amount of spice poured over the Parramatta-Melbourne rivalry this off season could supply the restaurants of Harris Park for the next decade, but as a merciful preview practitioner I’ll spare you all recapping the sordid tale that is Melbourne’s pursuit of Zac Lomax. As an Eels fan I didn’t exactly hold the Storm in high regard, but the arrogance and entitlement we’ve seen over the few months is something else entirely. Maybe they can sell off those fraudulent premiership trophies to pay Zac’s (and our) legal fees. Get Storm Man to work it off behind the counter of Mr. Chicken on match days.

While the Eels claimed the two points in the court battle, fans will care far more about leaving AAMI Park with a round one victory come Thursday night. The only thing more tiresome than Lomax speculation is hearing about Melbourne’s incredible first round record, but it is undeniable; the task before the mighty Eels here is herculean. Parramatta will need to hit the ground in mid-season form to claim victory, so let’s apply the blowtorch to this contest and make this deal preview happen.

Game Info

Date: Thursday, March 5, 2026
Venue: AAMI Park, Melbourne
Kick-off: 8:00PM, AEDT
Referee: Todd Smith
Bunker: Chris Butler
Weather: Dry, warm
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (All odds quoted are NSW Tab)

It’s Round One people. That means the only form lines are last season’s results and a couple of recent trials.

There is usually value in finding an upset or two across the early rounds, and for mine Parra fit into that category this week against a Storm side that hasn’t lost an opening round match in over two decades.

If, like me, you rate our Eels a chance, then $2.90 in the head to head market is a sweet, sweet return.

I’m feeling a little more bold. I reckon the Eels could get close to a two try winning margin. In the pick your own line market market, their odds are very attractive. Let’s go in all guns blazing with the Eels at minus 10.5 points, for a return of $5.70.

Happy, responsible punting.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Will Penisini 4. Brian Kelly 5. Sean Russell 6. Jonah Pezet 7. Mitchell Moses 8. J’maine Hopgood 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Jack Williams 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. Jack de Belin. 14. Dylan Walker 15. Sam Tuivaiti 16. Matt Doorey 17. Tallyn Da Silva 18. Kelma Tuilagi 19. Joash Papalii. 20. Jordan Samrani 21. Charlie Guymer 22. Teancum Brown.

Jason Ryles is not a man for surprises, going with the lineup we expected in round one. Josh Addo-Carr is out for a couple of weeks with his broken thumb, with Sean Russell shifting to the wing and Brian Kelly coming into the centres. Both outside backs (as well as Bailey Simonsson) will be aiming to impress as they fight to avoid being the one to make way for the Fox when he returns.

New recruit Jack de Belin comes straight into the starting side at lock with J’maine Hopgood completing his transformation to a prop forward and locking down the number 8 jersey. Matt Doorey has secured the final bench forward position ahead of Luca Moretti, Charlie Guymer and Kelma Tuilagi, though Kelma looms on the extended bench that nobody quite knows how to talk about just yet. Should we now be treating numbers 18 and 19 like they have an equal chance of playing as 14-17? I’d suggest Kelma and Joash are only there for “break in case of emergency”, though Joash has some value as a livewire impact player that could turn a contest, and may be used as such.

Melbourne Storm

1. Sua Faalogo 2. Will Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Moses Leo 5. Nick Meaney 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Joe Chan 12. Ativalu Lisati 13. Alec MacDonald. 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Cooper Clarke 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Davvy Moale 18. Preston Conn 19. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown. 20. Lazarus Vaalepu 21. Angus Hinchey 22. Trent Toelau.

Plenty of changes to this Melbourne side, which has been ravaged by injury, suspension and the threat of rugby union. Ryan Papenhuyzen is taking a year off after definitely not signing with R360, replaced by his long term protege Sua Faalogo. Australian winger Xavier Coates is out for a couple of months with injury, former rugby union player Moses Leo comes into the centres to replace him, forcing Nick Meaney to the wing.

In the pack Nelson Asofa-Solomona is now a boxer (good riddance), while Eli Katoa is unfortunately sitting out for a season after his horrific head knocks and subsequent collapse in an international last year. Shawn Blore and Trent Loiero are other regular forwards missing in action, through injury or suspension. It leaves a relatively no-name back row of Joe Chan, Ativalu Lisati and Alec MacDonald, though take any Storm forward lightly at your peril. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown is another of those players that makes me wish Rabs hadn’t retired.

The Great Unknown

Look, I’m as surprised as anybody at how upset I am getting that Sean Russell is leaving

Without any form on the board for 2026 we are largely guessing about how the Storm will play. Their middle will lack punch, both literally without Nelson Asofa-Solomona and figuratively without Eli Katoa, but the Melbourne conveyor belt of talent produces enough honest toilers to keep them in any contest. They will miss the peaks of Katoa’s attacking ability, but they’ll be well-drilled tough nuts that hold their own. The Storm forwards completely overwhelmed the Eels middle in this contest last year, and Parramatta must at least match Melbourne in the ruck to have any hope here.

Ryan Papenhuyzen was a noted Eel-killer and his absence is welcomed, though he was the only non-representative player in the Melbourne spine. Jahrome Hughes and Cam Munster are dangerous, but Harry Grant is the guy I’m most concerned about. Grant has feasted on Parramatta’s ruck defence in the past and he’ll be licking his lips for any opportunity to target tired legs behind the markers. Jack Williams, Matt Doorey and J’maine Hopgood have all been caught out multiple times under fatigue and I’ll have my heart in my mouth every time one of them retreats to A or B inside our own ten. The only way to defend it is effort upon effort, easier said than done in the first week of the season, and especially if you’ve just been asked to make three tackles in the set.

The absence of Xavier Coates and Katoa will be even harder to take for Melbourne after watching the Eels’ trials, where there was some weakness under the high attacking ball. They will still be testing the Parramatta back three early and often with high kicks and strong chases, and both Isaiah Iongi and the Eels edge forwards will need to be aware of those short chips across the posts that have proven so successful for Katoa. If the yawning space is left for them, I’m sure even Chan and Lisati can catch a quick Munster kick into a gap.

Parramatta Football

The safest bet in 2026 is on the Kitione Kautoga breakout season

One encouraging aspect of the pre-season performances was how successful the “base” Parramatta attack was at putting up points. Just running through the generic shapes without targeting individuals or adjusting to the tendencies of the opposition, the Eels piled up the points against the Sharks and Roosters by creating the space for players to win one-on-one matchups. Sean Russell won’t be bodying reserve centres and backup fullbacks every week, but it bodes well for the team’s ability to adjust to a weekly gameplan when the core of their attacking philosophy is embedded club-wide, and I’d expect another leap in attacking performance from the Eels this year.

The Eels will also need to lift defensively, and signs in the trials were positive on that front. Contact looked stronger than I have seen in a long time, particularly in the Sharks contest, and that was against a solid number of first grade veterans. There were a few decision making moments that some of our edges would like back, and that was a weakness that simply must be rectified for the Eels to step up to the elite level in 2026. So many tries last year came from basic misses or misreads when defending the line, and with the level of depth in the Eels pack this year such misses have to be unacceptable for any forward. This defensive system puts some pressure on those middle and edge forwards to both make good decisions and push to cover, and fatigue cannot be an excuse for missing assignments.

There will also need to be some adjustments for the new rules and changes in personnel. Zac Lomax might not have been as effective an aerial weapon as we would have liked (in fact Momax was the biggest disappointment since that time we had ScoMo in the sheds), but one area we will really miss is his persistence on kick chase. It can’t only be on Ryley Smith to lead that speed, especially if he is also being tasked with pressuring kickers at the other end of the field. Given the talent of fullbacks in 2026, presenting a set defensive line to them on every chase is more important than ever.

Parramatta has also been guilty of some awkward kick chase blocking in recent times, and with the crackdown on genuine attempts and cynical blocking this is an area of the game the side has to get right. Josh Add-Carr is a bit of a master of the half-hearted blocking attempt, but across the board the team needs to be better at both contesting kicks and providing meaningful but legal defence of the catcher. Easy for me to say from here, but scoring from kicks was hugely important in 2025 and will only increase in potency this year if these crackdowns are enforced.

There is so much more to cover about the 2026 Parramatta Eels; how Jonah Pezet fits into the squad (I predict just fine), how big a leap can Kitione Kautoga take (he’s the next Kikau), can Tallyn Da Silva find his role in the side (he’ll be fine), how many defenders will Sam Tuivaiti leave in his wake (all of them). The good news is we’ll get our first answers very soon, but this team is an evolving tale. The best is yet to come.

The Final Word

I dare you to try and stare into Jonah Pezet’s eyes. Go on…

Melbourne’s round one record is as baffling as it is impressive. Opponents will know they are getting mid-season intensity from the Storm in the opener, but 20+ years have proven that knowing it and stopping it are two very different things. The Eels found that out the very hard way last year, but they at least know exactly what to expect and have hopefully been aiming to eclipse that bar all pre-season long. There’ll be no excuse for the Eels being out-enthused, out-muscled or beaten for conditioning. That just leaves the Storm relying on the inherent skills and talents of their stacked roster to get them by. How ever will they cope?

Given all that has happened this off season and just how high on hope I am for season 2026, I’m tipping the Eels to end the streak. I’m tipping them here in public anyway (please don’t check my tip records in the TCT tipping comp. Join here!). Finishing a season strongly doesn’t guarantee you’ll start the next one firing, but there is a feeling about Jason Ryles and this squad that gives me great confidence. I’m expecting big things from the Eels this year, and that starts with crushing a hoodoo and ending both a 23 season round one winning streak and a six game streak they have quietly built up against the Eels.

It feels a bit early in the year to be resorting to cliches like “who wants it more will win”, but I can’t see the Storm wanting it more than the Eels right here, right now. I expect us to come out firing and have too much in attack for a Storm side with so many new combinations to be able to defend. In 2026, I’m ready to believe.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Eels 22 d Storm 12

Man of the Match: Mitchell Moses

Gol

If you liked this article, you might consider supporting The Cumberland Throw.