On a sunny Sunday afternoon, season 2025 comes to an end for the Parramatta Eels. This has been a conflicting year for Parramatta fans; undoubtedly the future looks bright, but that has been cold comfort in some fairly uninspired performances throughout the year, particularly in winnable games against the Dragons, Rabbitohs, Tigers and Dolphins. “Noble losses” was added to the Macquarie (Street Parramatta) Dictionary this year as the Eels made a habit of playing hard but ultimately coming up short against big name sides, and if I hear “green shoots” one more time this year I’m going to be doing some shooting myself. Still, a win here will give the Eels their first three game winning streak of the year and ensure the season finishes with five wins from the last seven starts.
Standing in the way of that strong finish are the Newcastle Knights, with results transpiring this weekend so that the Novocastrians have it all to play for. They need a win to avoid a (frankly deserved) wooden spoon, while it is also their farewell game for coach Adam O’Brien, who I haven’t been able to figure out if the Knights side loves or loathes over his six season tenure. If you want to grasp at some straws it is also a revenge game for former Eels Jake Arthur and Greg Marzhew, the latter who always seems to lift against a side where he still holds a “most tries conceded in a season” record for NSW Cup.
There isn’t so much to play for on the Eels front, other than pride and a chance to crack double digit wins and finish as high as eleventh on the ladder, overtaking the Cowboys and Tigers. I’m not one to advocate finishing ahead of the Tigers as a measure of success in a season, but it would be nice to be above Wests come stumps on season 2025. Can we do it? Let’s dig into the preview!
Game Info
Date: Sunday, September 7, 2025
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Kick-off: 4:05PM AEST
Referee: Wyatt Raymond
Bunker: Liam Kennedy
Weather: Dry, warm
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo
Sixties Gol Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)
Gol filling in here again, and the usual disclaimer applies: my punting tips are as well thought out as they are successful. You’ve been warned.
Let’s keep it simple and hopeful. The Knights are giving up 43 points per game in their last five, so Eels 41+ paying $3.60 feels like a fun one to ride home.
But as always, keep it fun.
Happy, responsible punting everyone.
Gol
Teams
Parramatta Eels
1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Zac Lomax 3. Will Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. J’maine Hopgood 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Jack Williams 13. Dylan Walker. 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Charlie Guymer 16. Matt Doorey 17. Jordan Samrani. 22. Joash Papalii 20. Toni Mataele
Dylan Brown gets a farewell start as the only change to the side that upset the Warriors last weekend, pushing Joash Papalii to the extended bench. I was hoping for more from Dylan this year while Moses was out, but in the end he’s been a solid performer for the Eels for many years and he’d have been mad to not take the ridiculous deal the Knights have offered him. Sucks to be us to be the victims of another team’s idiocy, but you can’t blame Dylan for that.
Newcastle Knights
1. Fletcher Hunt 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Jake Arthur 7. Jack Cogger 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 13. Tyson Frizell 11. Jermaine McEwen 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 15. Mat Croker. 14. Jayden Brailey 16. Thomas Cant 17. Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana 19. Cody Hopwood. 18. James Schiller 22. Lachlan Crouch.
The Newcastle halves merry-go-round is one of the many reasons Adam O’Brien won’t be coaching them in 2026, with the current stop being on Jake Arthur and Jack Cogger, the very definition of workmanlike. Fletcher Hunt is at the back with Kalyn Ponga and Fletcher Sharpe injured, while Dylan Lucas and Leo Thompson are absent in the pack.
Cody Hopwood makes his somewhat anticipated debut from the bench, joining Thomas Cant, Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana and Jermaine McEwen as guys in the Knights pack that I couldn’t pick out of a lineup. They haven’t won since round 17 (including dropping five at home) so I don’t need to go any further into how this youth movement is working out for them.
Popguns at Ten Paces
Farewell, Dylbags
I’m not sure if it is historically bad, but it isn’t a good sign when you could add a try a game to a team’s scoring and they’d still have the worst attack in the NRL. Such is the case with the Knights, who score at an anaemic 14.3 points per game. They hold a nearly league average defence, but still boast the worst points differential in the NRL thanks to that attack. Parramatta hasn’t exactly been an attacking force this year (third worst in the NRL), but we’ve scored 108 more points than Newcastle.
For the Knights, it is a tale of possession. They are second worst in the NRL for errors made (and I struggled to believe they weren’t worst, but the Cowboys man) and worst in completion rate, leading to an NRL worst possession share. That this below average attack barely gets any opportunities is the major cause for the offensive offensive numbers the Knights have put up.
There are a couple of brighter spots for the Newcastle attack, who do break a lot of tackles, probably half of those coming from Greg Marzhew yardage runs. For their possession rates, the offload and running numbers aren’t terrible, but just looking at their team sheet you can see the problem: converting the few opportunities they get.
A backline of Gagai, Best, Marzhew and Dom Young should be able to cross the line at a league average rate purely on individual talent, so it says a lot about the Knights’ various spine combinations that they can’t even achieve that. We know Jake Arthur all too well, but he’s only into his fifth game as a Knight and the problems started well before he got his chance. Jack Cogger has played 20 games this year, all bar one at halfback, and he’s managed a paltry four try assists. Hunt is in his third game at fullback, while the dummy half battery of Crossland and Brailey has no tries and four assists on the year, and one of those came from Crossland playing in the halves.
This does rely on the Knights continuing their lax approach to ball security and general disregard for the importance of possession. Eels opponents remain remarkably well disciplined both in handling and penalties, despite the Roosters attempts to even the errors against ledger single handedly a few weeks back. If the Knights can get a fair share of possession then all that will stop them is their own lack of competence with the ball, another fair bet but you don’t want to give their three quarters too many one on one chances near the line (I’m fairly sure Marzhew only needs to steamroll Lomax for a try to complete his Eels backline set).
The Game
Can the Foxx make it three length of the field efforts in three weeks?
While you would think avoiding the wooden spoon is a strong motivator for teams, usually they find themselves reminded of why they are in that spoon battle in the first place when asked to win to avoid it. Just look at what the Tigers dished up in the spoon bowl last year. Newcastle has conceded an average of 43 points per game in their last five, but in three of those games the margin was eight points or less at halftime. Expect the Knights to compete for a while, then fade away under pressure from a superior opponent.
Karmacally, the Knights deserve the spoon. They are historically bad in attack, put the cue in the rack months ago and their coach is on his way out. Giving up 40 points to the Eels to secure a wooden spoon would be a fitting end to his coaching career really. We know who he and his Knights side are at this point. Actually, it might be more fitting to give up 60.
For Parramatta, a finish further up the ladder is reward for a strong end to the year. We could “what if” a few of the losses this year for a potential finals berth, but this is a team that doesn’t deserve the post-season. It shouldn’t have been in the spoon race for as long as it was, and ten wins would be a good salvage job on a season doomed from round one.
The Eels just need to get the job done. Going on recent form, they should handle the Knights without too much issue. Complete, compete and the result will come. Here’s hoping for few nervous moments and a joyous Father’s Day celebration for those long suffering Parramatta dads out there. We deserve one.
Go you Eels!
Prediction: Eels 44 d Knights 10
Man of the Match: Dylan Brown
Gol
As someone who has a large amount of mates who are Tigers fans, I think it’s very important that we jump them on the ladder!
Clearly the spoon avoidance is a big motivator. Think back to last year between the Tigers and the Eels. Think about the Titans whom were done halfway through the second half yesterday and came back from the dead. The Knights as bad as they are will be in this from the start with emotional factors driving them. We are still playing for pride and are odds on favorites. That’s a killer itself being favorites. Interesting facts – the first six games the Eels conceded 200 points. The last six games 106 points. That highlights the improvements the team has made in defence. As for Dylan Brown he and Moses have been fan favorites for some time and he has had some great games. $13 million signing for the Knights let’s hope he shows them what they bought. That’s a two edge sword. He will be either his best or show nothing. For his last game we want his best.
Can we win? Of course and easily. That’s not the question – the question is will they turn up? That can be answered on the field.
If we hold the ball and not be generous to the Knights, I’m hoping we can turn in another competitive, competent show. We can all then have 5 months with less doubt about 2026.
Just on the Titans yesterday, I was trying to watch why the Tigers faded. Looked like they lost intensity and allowed the Titans too much space out wider. The Titans kept going there and speed men like AJ Brimson caused trouble. Always lessons in these events.
Lots of reactions:
We’ve seen the point of Da Silva : potentially he has an elite running game. He also has inadequacies. If we can remove his weaknesses we’ll have a potential match winner.
We were good and it was exciting but, oh dear, The Knights – at times, weren’t they nearly unbelievably bad?
Predictions for next year – both The Eels and The Wests Tigers to make the eight; the Fainu kid, the second rowers with all the hair to be recognised as an elite talent : I don’t know his allegiance, but if he:s available for State of Origin I expect him to be in the discussion.
For us. Isaac Jim and Rida Talagai at some stage to be The Cup starting props.