Well that (nearly a) week just flew by. Amazing what a brilliant win can do for the passage of time. While I’d love to ride high on that Brisbane victory for a while longer, the Parramatta Eels now have the chance to double up on the good times and spring an upset on a Melbourne Storm side that has stalled out the last few rounds.
We won’t talk about the first matchup this year, both for the trauma it could raise and because it is about as representative of the current state of the Parramatta Eels as a field session tape from season 2015. In the last two weeks the Storm were humbled by the struggling Sea Eagles and won a “defence optional” clash against the Roosters, and now they are without their star halfback in Jahrome Hughes. The chance is there.
Are the young Eels good enough to take that chance? Can they pants a second finals contender in a row? Let’s dig in with the preview to find out!
Game Info
Date: Thursday July 31, 2025
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Kick-off: 7:50PM AEST
Referee: Gerard Sutton
Bunker: Chris Butler
Weather: Wet, cold
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo
Sixties Gol Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)
Gol filling in here again, and the usual disclaimer applies: my punting tips are as well thought out as they are successful. You’ve been warned.
I was tempted to come up with some kind of elaborate multi with likely Storm scorers, but stuff that. Let’s just put the faith in our boys to get it done and go for an Eels 1-12 win at $4.80. If we somehow blow it out to 13+ and lose this one, I’m sure the big win would make up for losing the bet.
But as always, keep it fun.
Happy, responsible punting everyone.
Gol
Teams
Parramatta Eels
1. Joash Papalii 2. Zac Lomax 3. Will Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dean Hawkins 7. Mitchell Moses 8. J’maine Hopgood 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Charlie Guymer 12. Jack Williams 13. Dylan Walker. 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Luca Moretti 16. Matt Doorey 17. Sam Tuivaiti. 18. Jordan Samrani 22. Dylan Brown.
Fact checking is for winning seasons, but I’m fairly sure this is the first time the Eels have managed to field an unchanged starting 17 this year. It certainly hasn’t been a common luxury for the Blue and Gold. Former starters Kelma Tuilagi and Bailey Simonsson have had to return from injury via NSW Cup as Jason Ryles entrusts the group that got it done last week to have another go. Dylan Brown remains in the “break glass in case of emergency” 18th man role.
Melbourne Storm
1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Grant Anderson 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Tyran Wishart 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Tui Kamikamica. 14. Jonah Pezet 15. Ativalu Lisati 16. Bronson Garlick 17. Joe Chan.
A huge out for the Storm in Jahrome Hughes, we’ll talk more about that and what it means later on. His place is filled by Tyran Wishart. Trent Loiero is also out this week, with Tui Kamikamica promoted to starting lock. Will Warbrick remains sidelined but Nick Meaney does return to the centres, while Nelson Asofa-Solomona, you’ll never guess it, is suspended. Good riddance.
It isn’t all bad news for Melbourne, with two big ins coming in the form of Ryan Papenhuyzen, returning from a calf injury, and Cameron Munster from personal leave. Papenhuyzen has been a destroyer of worlds against the Eels in the past, hopefully he’s not 100%.
Can We Do It?
Fans will be hoping for a good problem if Joash finds top form at the back
The Storm are definitely suffering a post-Origin slump, riddled with injuries and limping along with a top four spot all but guaranteed yet the minor premiership seeming unlikely. You couldn’t blame them for getting healthy, resetting themselves for a finals run. Maybe that’s what the last two weeks have been and now they’ll put the foot down, but without Jahrome Hughes they may find that easier said than done.
Since Hughes became a regular starter (and quickly the starting halfback) in 2019, the Storm have won 56.5% of their games without him in the side (13 wins from 23 games), compared to 77.3% with him and 74.5% overall. It’s a decent enough sample size to say that Melbourne are “The Storm” with Hughes in the side, and a “barely makes the finals” side without him. Given the talent in the rest of that Melbourne team, it is a massive drop off for one player.
Compare that with the two other big stars in the Storm spine; Cam Munster and Harry Grant (we’ll ignore Papenhuyzen since he’s spent more time off the field and on in this comparison period). With Munster since 2019, the Storm win 73.2% of games, without Munster (a significant sample size of 35 games) their win rate is 80%. For Grant we compare since 2021, where they won 77.8% of the 27 games without Grant, compared to 70.8% with him and 72.4% total.
The obvious conclusion then, of course, is that the Storm should ditch Munster and Grant because they are clearly handbrakes on this Storm team reaching its potential. Wait, maybe not. Those numbers will be slightly skewed as both Munster and Grant would often be missing at the same time, say during Origin periods, but this just makes the Hughes numbers all the more impressive as he would still be there during these games and contributing to the Storm’s higher overall win percentage when he plays.
That’s a lot of numbers to say “Jahrome Hughes is the real heart of the Storm”, but it is the facts. Melbourne are a bog average team without Hughes (for comparison, the Eels have won 53.8% of games since 2019) and a dynasty (but for the Panthers) with him.
You Didn’t Really Answer The Question
He’s been better at prop, but a big test looms for J’maine
Other factors help just as much as hinder the Eels here. A wet track will slow Papenhuyzen and Grant off the mark, but will also make the Parramatta early spread gameplan harder to implement. The absence of Kautoga and Tuilagi takes away two fairly capable mid-range kick defenders, leaving the less experienced Guymer and Williams exposed to the short chip game for Eliesa Katoa, but the absence of Hughes hurts on both those short kicks and takes away their general play kicker, giving the Eels an even bigger advantage off the boot of Mitchell Moses.
Any Parramatta victory is going to need to come off two pillars: ball control and holding the middle. It wasn’t that long ago that Damien Cook torched the Eels at marker for a try in the first set of the game; Harry Grant is going to be looking for that play all night long. The Eels are going to eventually give away quick play the balls, the quality of the Storm forwards will ensure that, as will our own wrestling skills, but the A gap coverage needs to be on point for the full 80. J’maine Hopgood has done well at prop in recent weeks, but this will be a huge test for him in defence.
Last week was much better for the Eels in the second half, as Brisbane were the ones under pressure and making mistakes trying to push the ball to create chances. Melbourne are unlikely to beat themselves like that, and without spreading the ball the Eels will get eaten alive in the middle, so they need to find that difficult balance of wet conditions and adventurous play. The Moses kicking game will help relieve the pressure of field position, as will Joash Papalii finding some more space on his returns. If Parramatta can keep up the kick pressure and chase from last week, good things will happen. Whether they can do that on a heavy surface against a tough pack and dangerous fullback, that will be one of the keys to a potential victory.
The gameplan against Reece Walsh last week should prove effective against Papenhuyzen, though he will be more inclined to take the line on than Walsh was when fielding a bouncing ball. The Storm have a better set of backs to play Panther-ball on the early tackles than the Broncos do, with Coates in particular very effective, but they still sit among the lower echelon of teams in the NRL for metres made by the back three (thanks Eye Test). In a war of attrition in the wet, the Eels are well placed to share the load and grind out the yardage, even without Isaiah Iongi.
The Game
It’s a revenge game for the Foxx
There are a lot of reasons for hope, but at the end of the day the Eels are fighting to avoid the spoon and the Storm are thinking about how to manage their way to peak for the finals, having already locked in a top four spot. They are carrying a five game winning streak against the Eels into this contest, the longest such streak over Parramatta since they entered the competition in 1998. In three of those wins they posted 46 or more, and in another they put up 32. Hughes or no, this will be a hard ask.
The Storm do have some vulnerabilities; if both teams play as they did last week I’d really like our chances. Melbourne rarely has bad games back-to-back (facing the Storm off of a loss is about as tough as facing them round one), but even with a win last week, you couldn’t really say they looked good. Would Craig Bellamy want to time his run to this week when the Storm face the Broncos, Panthers and Bulldogs in the three weeks following? Let’s hope this is another “just get through it” game for Melbourne before they kick into the finals run.
Hoping for your opposition to have an off day isn’t the most convincing argument for victory, and indeed I can’t pick it here. I hope we give the Storm a tough run of it, but the strength of Harry Grant matches up way too well with our middle deficiencies, and Melbourne just has that edge, that ability to win these kinds of games, that the Eels don’t yet have the talent to overcome.
Let’s hope I’m the one that’s wrong here, I didn’t think I could be any happier to be incorrect than after last week, but a win here of any kind would top it I reckon. Let’s do it.
Go you Eels!
Prediction: Storm 28 d Eels 16
Man of the Match: Harry Grant
Gol
If we play our best, which is still better than last week, we can win.
We are a different team in the middle, and the defensive structure in the backs has improved (barring brain farts from Lomax).
Harry Grant will find a very different mission against Smith with 20 games under his boots, and DaSilva than Hands and a complete rookie Smith, brought on after the game was already gone.
It would be nice to have Iongi at the back defensively but I think this is the time for Joash to step up. Iongi lacked confidence until he tackled a runaway Gutho, maybe this is Joash’s time.
Go the eels -I predict a win by 4
The only worry from last week was when Reynolds decided it was time to turn the ball back inside he actually called it right but I reckon Ryles and team saw that and we will be keeping our feet moving tonight. The Storm don’t miss, but may not be as deadly without Hughes.
Should the boys turn up like last week we might catch a back to back win. The Storm is such a well drilled and skillful team that is hard to collect a win. Thank goodness they didn’t lose last week. Bellamy would have them fired up for this one. It will be a benchmark measure of Parra’s improvement since the first few weeks. Our defence took some heavy hits back then and from my viewpoint – without any inside knowledge – Dylan Brown contributed to that with that announcement. He could have made it during the preseason but waited until the weekend of round one. That’s the way I see it and, it took a little while but they have moved on. The game tonight? We have referee who often overlooks the frustrating tactics of the Storm but never misses the sins of the Eels. So Parra are up against 14 on the field. They can still do it if they play like they did last week. I think Mitch will have a quiet game tonight like he did against Penrith (his second game back). Control the ball and cut the errors although there was 40 missed tackles chalked up against the Broncos. The Storm will love that. Two players to watch – Grant who always scores a try that kills the match and Munster who I think will man of the match. Still we did good last week and that should give the boys a lot of confidence. I won’t tip the Storm but after suffering through so much this season I can’t tip the Eels. Looks like it will be a draw. One thing for certain the Storm will not get fifty.
Hughes is a big out for storm but they still are a quality side. They are not playing anywhere near there potential at the moment but they always are a really tough side to beat even at there worst. Might be a stretch to far at the moment but if we can stay right with them they are missing a guy who does come up with a lot of clutch moments so who knows. Must complete high I give us no chance if we don’t complete above 80%
The Storm are not as great without Hughes
Both statistically and by the eye like eels they look a lesser team without their half back
This game will be simple from the Storm to hold the ball early and apply pressure on parramatta’s middles and particularly on our markers (to try fish for penalties from our tired markers)
For the eels it’s not about “beating the storm”
It’s about not beating themselves.
You’ll see within just 2-20 minutes if parra is going to defeat themselves by knock ons and penalties
It’s absolutely bucketing down here in Sydney – I hope the boys can have a good night but it’s going to be difficult for them
Best of luck to young Joash tonight under the high ball in wet conditions, it’s going to be a challenge for him and most of them to be honest
I don’t know that we’ve seen most of our young players get NRL experience yet in soaking wet conditions like tonight’s
I’m going out on a limb here tonight…Eels by 8
I agree with 57 years an Eel a nail biting win by 4
Too many errors we usually win these games
But as many of us guessed – Storm gets piggy backs as do most top teams
Moses sees this game like we do – he actually said to te ref “what have we got to do to get help calls coming out of our end like they do?”
I commented on here a while back saying I know through personal networks / barbers that cut some eels and a few non eels players (several who played origin)
They openly discuss this in the shop saying they think the refereeing is a scam and speak about the officiating with far more suspicion or lack of faith than even we do on here
You’ll be shocked to hear what Moses just said – times that by 20 and that how many NRL players talk about the game and its officiating outside of professional environments
Regardless we have too many errors – even if Storm didn’t get refs favour you cannot win games easily with hopgood ball playing on a wet day
Recipe for disaster and I have no idea what he is ball playing again…
Eels are a good team if we just stop the silly passes and offloads, Storm are playing conservative KNOWING we should cough the ball up and hand them easy possession
..you can’t beat Storm giving them possession advantages
Hopefully we can cling on the second half 🤞
Meant to say: we usually lose these games.. (meaning once the errors are there early)
Hopgood should not be allowed to pass 🤣
Hopgood is very much back in my doghouse, this time for good
“It’s the refs fault it’s the refs fault!” Haha.
Geez hopgood is such a poor player. I’ve been saying it all year. He’s the poor man’s version of Yeo. He should be dropped and then sold as soon as possible. Eels were actually poor tonight. Anyways – didn’t matter in the end.
I disagree, I thought we were terrific tonight aside from Hopgood against opposition who are a step up in what we played last week, or have you forgotten round 1 ???
Nobody said it’s entirely the refs fault ^
Errors from us is the main fault every week almost especially from guys like hopgood when he tries to ball play
But the officiating gives favour to top 4 teams on a weekly basis, nobody who watches the game disagrees on this
But parramatta’s main issue as always is errors and silly penalties gifting teams easy passage out of their own end
Hopgoods a prop and has no right to be a ball playing lock – its failed 9/10 this season
It blows me away we still allow him to pass the ball – he looks good just playing as a prop
If Hopgood doesn’t play today I think we win. He can’t continue to play 13 he is just full of errors and lack of concentration. He just needs to simplify his job and just run the ball.
Ryles would have to be fuming at some of these errors were making because we are doing a lot of things right in games but at the same time are our own worst enemy.
But he was dropping the ball cold tonight, and then he compounds his errors with defence or penalties. I agree, I think we win if he’s not out there.
Brett, maybe the stat sheet doesn’t always paint the right picture but Hopgood’s numbers don’t compare too badly with many others. His cold drops sort of make you blink, I get that.