When you write previews for a few years, unless you are writing about the Tigers, you run out of ways to say that a game is a must-win in an interesting way. Crucial, season defining, turning point, they’re all fancy ways of saying “don’t screw this up, boys”. Here in round 17 of season 2025, this game is one the boys in Blue and Gold really can’t screw up.

For only the eighth time in 25 years, the Eels travel down to Wollongong to take in the brisk sea breeze and take on the St George-Illawarra Dragons. The Gong hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for Parramatta, taking only two wins and a draw against the merged entity over their existence, though given that Corey Norman and Jarryd Hayne were in the last Eels team to play down there that record doesn’t have a lot of modern relevance.

Despite their perpetual coaching crisis, the Dragons are always a tough out that know their way through an arm wrestle. The victor here will push themselves to just one win outside the top eight, the loser remains only one loss away from anchoring the ladder. It’s just that kind of year. So can the understrength Eels get it done and keep the unlikely prospect of finals alive? If they can’t do it here, we can pack those hopes into storage until the weather warms up. Let’s dig into the preview!

Game Info

Date: Saturday, June 28, 2025
Venue: WIN Stadium, Wollongong
Kick-off: 5:30PM AEST
Referee: Liam Kennedy
Bunker: Chris Butler
Weather: Cool, dry
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Are the Eels still a genuine chance even without key players like Moses, Smith and Penisini joining the previously long list of unavailable players? Yes.

Is it likely that over 46 points will be scored in this clash? Again the answer is yes.

In the head to head/over under double market, taking the combination of the Eels winning with total match points of over 46.5 points is returning $4.20. There’s a bit of risk given the missing personnel but let’s do that for the tip.

But as always, keep it fun.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Zac Lomax 3. Jordan Samrani 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dylan Brown 7. Dean Hawkins 8. Jack Williams 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. J’maine Hopgood. 14. Dylan Walker 15. Matt Doorey 16. Charlie Guymer 17. Joash Papalii. 18. Dan Keir 20. Brendan Hands.

Injury and now suspension is decimating the Parramatta lineup, with Mitchell Moses, Bailey Simonsson, Luca Moretti and Sam Tuivaiti all walk up starters that are sidelined through injury, joined by Ryley Smith and Will Penisini on the naughty list after lifting tackles last week.

Jordan Samrani comes into the centres for Penisini, where he has done a solid job with a few highlight and lowlight moments when filling in previously. With Dylan Brown returning from his own suspension, Joash Papalii is pushed to the bench utility role once more, with the impressive Dean Hawkins remaining at half.

Papalii will likely get another shot as a utility rake, with Joey Lussick replacing Smith in the starting nine jersey. History suggests Lussick won’t handle a full 80 so expect Papalii to perhaps play a more traditional bench hooker role. Doorey, Guymer and Walker make up the bench middle rotation.

St George Illawarra Dragons

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Corey Allan 3. Moses Suli 4. Valentine Holmes 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Lyhkan King-Togia 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Emre Guler 9. Damien Cook 10. David Klemmer 11. Toby Couchman 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Jack De Belin. 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Hamish Stewart 16. Viliami Fifita 17. Luciano Leilua. 22. Nathan Lawson 18. Loko Pasifiki Tonga.

The Dragons are as close to full strength as they get, with impressive rookie Dylan Egan the only regular starter out with injury. If you’ve had the misfortune of reading Fox Sports on a quiet news day you’ll have seen something about the endless Dragons halves debate, with Lachlan Ilias playing the role of every kid who thought the coach’s son that could barely kick a ball shouldn’t be playing halfback ahead of them.

Rumoured future Eel Jack de Belin (don’t get me started) starts at lock, while noted Eel-killers Damien Cook and Luciano Leilua also hold places in the pack and bench respectively. Cook might not have as much zip as he used to, but he always seems to find that downhill running he loves against the Eels.

Sticky tape and glue

All hail Footy Dean!

“Next man up” culture hasn’t exactly been a strength of the Eels in recent years; Brad Arthur was a real “pick and stick” kind of coach who had a largely favourable run of avoiding injury disruptions. Given that reversal of fortunes in recent years, Jason Ryles is doing an admirable job in modelling this side on his former employers the Melbourne Storm, especially in terms of the team defending as a unit.

Conceding 88 points in the first two weeks is always going to warp the Parramatta defensive numbers, but in the 12 games since then they’ve conceded 30 only twice (the game we don’t talk about in Darwin, plus a late blowout to scrape exactly 30 against the Bulldogs) and 20 five times. They’re not numbers to scream from the rooftops, but they’re much closer to a mid-pack defensive side like the Panthers or Sea Eagles than belonging in comparison with the dregs like the Tigers, Cowboys and Titans. Anybody calling out the Eels defensively is calling themselves out as a stat watcher rather than a game watcher.

Individual lapses have been the major problem in the Parramatta defensive line. Single bad reads and some pathetic tackle attempts in crucial situations have conceded soft tries, and while that has improved from early in the year where the TAB was halving the odds for front rower any time try scorer tickets against the Eels, last week showed there are still problems in that area. You can cover shifts well all you like, if you leave the front door ajar as often as some of the Parramatta middle defenders do, the opposition will rob you.

On that front, there are a few dangers in the Dragons side. Luciano Leilua may be coming off the bench but he regularly terrorises the Eels and he runs elite edge lines. Jaydn Su’A is similarly a tough edge runner that can bump off any half-hearted effort while also running good lines. Nobody is going to mistake Klemmer, Guler, Couchman or even De Belin for attacking weapons, but they run hard and that has been all some players have needed to break through the Parramatta middle.

In terms of playmakers there is less to worry about in this St George Illawarra team. King-Togia and Flanagan don’t inspire much fear in their opponents, and Clint Gutherson has cooled down after a hot start to the season. If our wingers aren’t glued to the touchline when he joins the attacking line I’m going to be most upset. Damien Cook will miss some of his favourite targets like Ryan Matterson, Shaun Lane and Joe Ofahengaue walking back in the defensive line, but he’ll be looking to run like back in his glory days given his record of success against us.

In the backline, Tuipulotu is a noted try scorer and Suli is another that is approaching Eel-killer status for his overperformances against Blue and Gold jerseys, but Val Holmes is a shadow of the player he used to be and Corey Allan is the latest in a rotation of replacement level wingers to take the Dragons flank. It is a group that should be able to be reasonably contained, even by what feels like the 73rd different Parramatta backline combination this year.

Shaping Up

Samrani has impressed in limited chances

Parramatta has also kept up a reasonable attacking shape considering the mass changes in personnel over the season. The fast interchange of passing between forwards and backs has proven itself adaptable to most combinations, and is more dependent on the Eels forwards finding some running room than certain players participation. That running room should be found against a Dragons pack that are tough but have rarely found themselves on the winning side of the metres equation this year.

Dean Hawkins has been doing a great job filling in for Mitch Moses. While his long kicking game doesn’t compare to Moses (few, if any do) he did a great job with the mid range attacking kicks last week. “Kick to Lomax” is a strategy we’d been waiting all season long for, and in that regard Hawkins is doing a fine Mitch impression. Dylan Brown hadn’t managed the same from his own short kicking game when combining with Lomax, who is more effective chasing high, mid-range kicks than shorter high kicks from within the 20.

Brown should be able to slide into his comfortable support role with Hawkins, who is proving more than capable of directing the Eels around the park. Throw in the evolving attacking threat of Isaiah Iongi and the challenges presented to a defence by middle forwards that can pass and offload, and there should be plenty of chances for the Eels in this contest. It was pleasing to see the middle width was still possible with Joey Lussick at rake, given the speed of his service compared to Ryley Smith. If Ryles can find a good use of Papalii’s talents coming off the bench, we’ll have a complete attacking setup here.

The Dragons do lead some unlikely statistical categories given their overall attacking performance in 2025. They’re great offloaders and miss the fewest tackles of all sides. They’re also third in the NRL for line breaks per game, yet somehow sit 12th in tries per game. It hints at a lack of pace and an inability to take advantage of field position, both conclusions that pass the eye test. This is in line with a long standing tradition; the Dragons don’t often beat themselves. They’re not flash and yes, they can occasionally collapse, but you need to be on your game to take them out.

The Game

King Who?

While some of it may be the Mitch factor, I’m a touch surprised the odds in this one are so heavily tilted towards the Dragons. St George Illawarra just aren’t much of a side; if you had to list three strengths for them in this contest one of them would be “they’re coming off the bye”, just beating out “the opposition might get distracted by those signs the fans hold up”. You keep doing you, GST guy.

Maybe I’m putting too much pressure on the team here, but I just don’t see a loss here. Where other sides at this end of the ladder are in a race to see who can fall over the fastest and hardest, the Eels continue to improve despite injury, suspension and Origin duty. The good performances haven’t always translated to wins thanks to the quality of opposition, but quality is rarely a word associated with the Dragons these days. This should be a win.

If anything is to come of season 2025, this needs to be a win. Let our hopes be dashed by competitive but ultimately futile efforts against the ladder leaders in the coming weeks, not on a cold Wollongong night by a perpetually mediocre opposition led by a rapidly wearing down former Eels captain. Come on Parra, you got this.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Eels 24 d Dragons 12

Man of the Match: Zac Lomax

Gol

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