It’s five days on, but I’m still not ready to forgive and forget the Easter Monday calamity that the Parramatta Eels delivered to fans. I’ve barely engaged with football all week long, though the relentless bore of Zac Lomax rumours has shielded the side from deserved scrutiny after their embarrassing loss.

In the end there is only one place a football side can do their talking, and that is on the field. Sunday night marks the Eels’ shot at redemption. It won’t be easy, while the hoodoo was broken in 2021 the nation’s capital remains a venue that Parramatta has traditionally struggled to win at. Canberra will deliver a special for us on Sunday night; cold and if not outright raining, soggy from several days of torrential rain. It’s conditions that suit the Raiders and their grinding style of footy, so Parramatta will need to be at their best to get a result here. Let’s see how they can do it.

Game Info

Date: Sunday, April 7, 2024
Venue: Canberra Stadium, Canberra
Kick-off: 6:15PM AEST
Referee: Adam Gee
Bunker: Kasey Badger
Weather: Wet, cold
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Last week I indicated that part of me wanted to treat the Tigers game as an “odds on look on” fixture. I wish I had stayed with that instinct. The Eels performance was a stinker.

This week, the Raiders are slight favourites at home. Just on that, over the last eight season, the Eels have been drawn to play just one regular season against the Raiders at Parramatta. Even going back further reveals that the vast majority of matches have been held in the nation’s capital.

I don’t have confidence in tipping the result, so I’m dipping my toe back into the “pick your own total” market. Five of the last six clashes between the Eels and the Raiders have produced total match points of 44 or more. We’ll go with that trend and select total match points of 44.5 or more at the odds of $2.10. The odds aren’t massive, so if you are confident of a big score, just one more converted try (50.5 total points) is returning $3.40.

Happy, responsible punting.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Sean Russell 6. Blaize Talagi 7. Dylan Brown 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. J’maine Hopgood.14. Luca Moretti 15. Wiremu Greig 16. Joe Ofahengaue 17. Kelma Tuilagi.

18. Ofahiki Ogden 19. Daejarn Asi 20. Brendan Hands 21. Makahesi Makatoa 22. Morgan Harper.

Bailey has played his best footy in Blue and Gold at centre

With only a day to name his side after the Easter Monday disaster, it was unlikely Brad Arthur would enact major changes. Bailey Simonsson returns to the top grade at the expense of Morgan Harper, a move that feels hard to have a strong opinion on either way, while Ryan Matterson will start in the back row for Kelma Tuilagi, who filled in for the injured Bryce Cartwright. Wiremu Greig makes his season debut from the bench at the expense of Brendan Hands.

The team change everybody cares about won’t be finalised until an hour before kickoff, where we all hope to see Junior Paulo back on the bench and one of Ofahengaue or Greig in the starting lineup. Whether Junior likes it or not, the results were clear to see; off the bench he has crushed it this year, as a starter last week his most notable moment was throwing a pass into row G.

Canberra Raiders

1. Jordan Rapana 2. James Schiller 3. Matt Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papalii 9. Danny Levi 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Ata Mariota 13. Morgan Smithies. 14. Tom Starling 15. Corey Horsburgh 16. Simi Sasagi 17. Pasami Saulo.

18. Kaeo Weekes 19. Nick Cotric 20. Trey Mooney 21. Zac Woolford 22. Emre Guler.

A few forced changes for the Raiders, with back rowers Zac Hosking and Elliott Whitehead both unavailable through injury. Morgan Smithies has done a typically Canberran job replacing Whitehead at lock this year, barely missing a tackle, making decent metres and offering absolutely no attacking extras. Ata Mariota has been named to start in the second row, better known as a prop, he completes a Raiders pack where all five players could happily play middle. It’ll be a treat of a battle in the forwards this weekend.

On the bench Simi Sasagi makes his club debut, known as an outside back at Newcastle, he has moved to the pack and will likely be used as an impact weapon. Famous crier Corey Horsburgh keeps his spot on the bench despite looking terribly underdone so far this year. Noted Eel-killer Danny Levi retains his starting role at hooker, hopefully the Levi curse has worn off after some more ordinary performances in recent years, but he has played some massive games against us in the past.

Got Nothing

I’m not sure you can say the Eels looked better when Clint Gutherson decided if nobody else was going to be halfback, he would take on the job, but considering the lack of direction and leadership around the park that Parramatta displayed last week it is no surprise the captain took matters into his own hands. Unfortunately he is also our primary support player, and this week he needs to be off the shoulder of Dylan Brown, who hopefully takes on that leadership role himself.

We need captain Clint to do a lot, but not too much, but also everything.

The team around Brown needs to make that job easier, too. A better platform through the middle, fewer dumb errors and pushed passes, less “easy” footy and more tough yards. Nobody rolled up the sleeves last weekend, and while I don’t expect anybody in the side to be taking Canberra as lightly as they took the Tigers, they’ll also need a plus effort to get on top of this tough Raiders pack. Nothing is going to come easy and the effort has to be there for the full 80, so hopefully the Eels forwards are smarting after being embarrassed last week where Samuela Fainu and Stefano Utoikamanu won a clear points decision.

It will be interesting to see how Ryan Matterson plays here. Named on an edge, it wouldn’t surprise to see him used more as a fourth middle. He’s an interesting choice to slot in on a right edge defence that got torched last week; he’s not exactly the type I would call a bodyguard ala Toni Carroll for Darren Lockyer. Blaize Talagi clearly needs the help, this might be one of those games where BA tells Matto to save the attack and spend all his energy in defence.

I’m going to assume sanity prevails and Junior starts from the bench, while the Tigers game was theoretically a good time to test what a Junior start looks like, it backfired spectacularly. Paulo and Greig coming on together would be an awesome one-two punch at first changes. The four forward bench will be an interesting watch; in a muggy, wet game it could be fresh legs that make the difference. Is this Luca Moretti’s time to shine with a late, match turning 15 minute cameo? I love the guy, so I’m going to say yes, yes it is.

Seeing Green

The Raiders fell apart a bit last weekend, but until that point had shown improved defensive resilience and a bit more spark in attack, if not sustainable, repeatable shape and actions. The Canberra attack last year was notoriously haphazard, with individual efforts and the kicking game of Jamal Fogarty standing in for shape, structure and targeted plays. There hasn’t been a lot more shape this year, but the kicking is still pinpoint and the addition of Ethan Strange has added an extra dimension to the individual attack. Matt Timoko and Xavier Savage are talented individual threats, and Jordan Rapana loves to deliver peak Rapana performances against the Eels; either killing us or his team with no in between.

Usually these games follow a typical Raiders pattern. They hang tough in the middle, score a couple of freak tries or exploit some Eels mistakes, and we’re left wondering what happened and why. I’d expect more of the defensive strength shown in the opening rounds than the aberration last week; Matt Timoko had a particularly unhappy game with his decision making but that was out of character. In soggy conditions the freak kicking game of Fogarty will be even more dangerous, opening up the increasingly rare attacking grubber as the bounce (and the risk of a seven tackle set) comes out of the ground. Watching Maika Sivo limp around last week, I’d be kicking in behind him.

Statistically, the Raiders are holding a mirror up to the Eels this season, playing high completion football. Both teams are one and two in completion rates and possession and both are among the lowest error rates in the competition. Something will have to give here, especially in the likely conditions. It is a game where the kicking of Mitchell Moses will be sorely missed, and the defensive qualities of the Parramatta back three will be frequently tested. Gutherson and Sivo are both very safe under the high and long ball, but both have been known to occasionally go off the boil. May Sunday night not be one of those nights.

The Game

I just really like Luca Moretti.

Honestly, I’m not expecting much of a spectacle on Sunday night. Rarely is a trip to Canberra a pleasant game of football, and especially so given the dump of rain over the entire east coast the last few days. The Raiders will match the middle, hang tough, and grind their way to three or four tries through kicks, speed and general “Rapana-ness”. If the Eels can’t manufacture some points of their own, it could be a punishing watch.

I expect the team will be fired up here, but I suspect that may not be enough in this one. The Raiders aren’t a team often beaten by the other side “wanting it more”. You don’t just show up, out-enthuse them and the result happens. They are the side that hangs tough and stays in a game despite the odds, they’re the side that is outplayed all afternoon yet is somehow four points up with ten to play and now you are panicking.

I’m still very upset with the side, so I’m picking against them here. This is definitely a winnable game, but last week was as winnable as you can get and they blew it, and I’m not over it. I’m not writing off season 2024 or anything extreme like that, there is still a long way to go this season, I’m just in a bit of a “prove it to me” mood right now. I’m sure the Eels can do exactly that, I’m just not ready to expect it just yet.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Canberra 24 d Parramatta 16

Man of the Match: Jordan Rapana

Gol

If you liked this article, you might consider supporting The Cumberland Throw.