If you looked up “danger game” in the rugby league dictionary, you’d find the round 17, 2023 schedule with the Eels vs Dolphins highlighted, circled and surrounded by giant red arrows pointing straight at it. Parramatta with two of their best backing up from Origin against an injury depleted Dolphins side coached by a wily veteran and smarting from two tough away losses. Is it really a Sunshine Coast ambush if you can see it coming all the way from Parramatta?

On paper this is a game the Eels should be expected to win comfortably, but the Dolphins have barely jumped favourites in their entire NRL existence yet have nabbed just as many wins as they have losses in season 2023. They are built for the tough contest, to win the arm wrestle if given a sniff, and the crucial top eight implications of a contest between two teams on equal points, one in the eight and one outside, will have Wayne Bennett sprinkling his magic dust for a big Redcliffe effort on Saturday afternoon.

It’s the first ever clash between the Eels and the Dolphins, the slipperiest creature of the sea against the smartest, and I’m sure there is a coaching metaphor in there somewhere for those who want to look. Will the Eels and Brad Arthur fall into yet another Benny ambush, or will they make it five in a row and potentially shoot into the top four following their bye? Let’s dig in.

Game Info

Date: Saturday, June 24th, 2023
Venue: Sunshine Coast Stadium, Sunshine Coast
Kick-off: 3:00PM AEST
Referee: Peter Gough
Bunker: Matt Noyen
Weather: Warm, dry
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Last week was a spectacular return to form for the speculation.

Both suggestions – the Eels in the line market and Hopgood to score in an Eels win – saluted.

Once more the Eels are at prohibitively short odds against an opponent with whom there is no historical data.

I believe that the best value can again be found in the score a try and win market. Perhaps I should again consider J’Maine Hopgood to score in an Eels victory. I’ve nominated Mitch Moses as first try scorer in the podcast preview, so it should be logical to select him to score.

However, I will instead nominate one of our in-form outside backs. Take Will Penisini to score in an Eels win for the return of $3.50.

If you’re brave, maybe a same game multi beckons!

Happy, responsible punting,

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Sean Russell 6. Daejarn Asi 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Brendan Hands 10. Junior Paulo 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Andrew Davey 13. J’maine Hopgood.14. Ofahiki Ogden 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Ryan Matterson 17. Makahesi Makatoa.

21. Waqa Blake 22. Shaun Lane

Mitch is going to back up from Origin

The only injuries to Junior Paulo and Mitch Moses coming from Origin were to their pride, so both will line up on Saturday in a big boost to the Eels. Mitch’s return pushes makeshift five eighth Ryan Matterson back to the middle rotation at the expense of Luca Moretti, while Paulo’s return comes in place of Matt Doorey. Daejarn Asi did a good job at halfback but will shift to his more natural five eighth role.

Josh Hodgson remains sidelined and it seems unlikely Shaun Lane will be rushed back into the side with another week of rest coming in the round 18 bye, so the Eels will be going with a mammoth bench of Ogden, Ofahengaue, Matterson and Makatoa. That is some serious beef on the interchange menu.

The Dolphins

1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Euan Aitken 4. Valynce Te Whare 5. Brayden McGrady 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Jesse Bromwich 19. Sean O’Sullivan 10. Herman Ese’ese 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Ray Stone. 14. Josh Kerr 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Connelly Lemuelu 18. Harrison Graham.

17. Max Plath 20. Poasa Faamausili.

Wayne has wielded the axe after Manly put 50 on the Dolphins two weeks ago, with winger Brayden McGrady making his NRL debut in place of Tesi Niu. He’s 26 years old and scores at a try a game in Qld Cup, we’ll see how much that means at NRL level come Saturday. Valynce Te Whare gets another start with Brenko Lee injured, he’s a “cult figure” big unit that will be very dangerous with the ball but a potential target without it.

In the pack Felise Kaufusi returns from suspension, pushing the impressive Connelly Lemuelu to the bench. Former Eel Ray Stone locks the scrum, his battle with the original Eels “mature aged hard worker” Andrew Davey will be worth the price of admission alone, provided you didn’t pay much for a ticket.

Us

Say what you will about Trent Barrett as a head coach (personally I thought he was rubbish) but as an assistant he has a proven track record of getting the best out of a team, first at Penrith and now at the Eels. Yes, in both cases he had plenty to work with (as opposed to his head coaching stint at Canterbury) but still, most people suggested that Parramatta would go backwards with roster movements in the off season, instead they are now the second best attacking team in the competition, a whisper away from the top spot.

Expect Big Junez to be smarting after Origin

It’s hard to pinpoint what has improved with the Parramatta attack. Some of the traditional methods used to score points in 2022 aren’t present; the line running of Isaiah Papali’i and the offload of Shaun Lane, while the old fashioned “get it to Sivo” has been adjusted to “good shape creates space for Sivo to fall over the line”. The key to improvement is in that last line: shape.

Parramatta have become clinical in their execution of backline shape. Where last year plenty of plays died because of a bad crash ball option or hitting the short runner once too often, this year the ball is getting wide with cleaner passing and line running with more intent to exploit the defence. A reliance on individual brilliance and winning one-on-one contests has been replaced by role playing in a larger move designed to exploit defensive weaknesses. There are still one-on-one opportunities, but now they are “take when they are there” options rather than the first method of attack.

This was on full display against Manly, where a makeshift halves combination barely missed a beat as the Eels got into shape and ran their plays, racking up 34 points and being denied plenty more by close calls. The Parramatta shape is no match for inexperienced defensive combinations, such as you might see in a side with a rookie centre and winger. They aren’t the South Sydney left edge just yet, where shape is combined with elite individual skills to create unstoppable backline moves, but they are approaching the territory of “knowing what they do is one thing, stopping it is another.”

It hasn’t been as obvious, but the Eels are also edging up to the top of the NRL’s defensive charts. While the otherworldly defensive numbers of Penrith are well out of reach, Parramatta has quietly conceded only 12ppg in the last four and overcome a lot of the defensive disadvantage they’d put themselves at the start of the year. For those who subscribe to the “you need to be a top three defensive side to win a comp” theory, Parramatta may yet qualify come season close.

The improvements there are also hard to quantify. Some of it is the opposition faced, some of it is strangling an opposition by dominating field positions through elite kicking, hard running and good discipline in various combinations. Some is just having fewer “moments” from defenders as our backline combinations settle. The performance of Bailey Simonsson shows just how much difference a positional change can make; a player that was lost at sea on the wing is making all the right moves at centre. Even having combinations that have defensive synergy is important: Waqa Blake and Blake Ferguson both looked solid enough defenders at times when not paired next to each other. Right now the Sivo/Simonsson and Russell/Penisini combinations have that crucial synergy.

Them

Wayne Bennett has dug deep into his coaching playbook for the Dolphins 2023 season, building a side with surprising attacking chops that has sprung plenty of upsets in their debut campaign. They’ve had a few off weeks, sure, but I think the recent drop in form can be attributed as much to injury and fatigue as anything else. Now they’ve got some players back and are fresh off a bye there might be something to worry about.

The Dolphins have been particularly good at rising up for their big occasions this year. They stunned the Roosters in their debut, beat Canberra at their Redcliffe opener and won both Queensland derbies against the Titans and Cowboys, while giving the Broncos a real shake in the Battle of Brisbane and dominating the Sharks at Magic Round. Unfortunately for the Eels, this week marks another milestone game for Redcliffe, their debut on the Sunshine Coast.

I don’t know much about south-east Queensland geographic rivalries, but I’m assuming there will be healthy support in the region for the Dolphins and not a resentment that it wasn’t the Mooloolaba Muskrats or Caloundra Cockatoos that got the NRL bid. It’s the type of game Wayne will get his players to fire up for, and the Eels best be ready for a fiery start to this contest.

The key to Dolphins footy is simple: don’t make errors. They have the best handling discipline in the NRL, are solid defenders of kicks and don’t miss too many tackles. This leads to an 81% completion rate, third best in the NRL, yet they sit bottom half of the league in just about all attacking categories. Run metres, offloads, line breaks, tackle breaks, the Dolphins are among the lowest in the league in all of those numbers, yet rated in the top five attacking teams for much of the early season and still sit eighth in points scored.

Some of this attacking overperformance is individual brilliance, led by Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow who has been a revelation at fullback. Jamayne Isaako is the unlikely third top tryscorer in the NRL, the Hammer is also top ten, but outside of those two no Dolphin in the starting side this week has more than 3 tries. Shutting down Isaako’s wing and being hyper-aware of the Hammer’s positioning feels like it will end the Dolphins attacking threats, but the latter especially is easier said than done.

When the Dolphins have won, their veteran pack has usually dominated the middle of the park. That sounds an awful lot like the strategy used by Wayne Bennett coached South Sydney sides in their dominant run over the Eels, and I expect the Dolphins to aim for a similar strategy here. It didn’t work for Souths a few weeks ago due to the drop in quality of their forwards and a revived Parramatta bench, helped by a ridiculous Eels completion rate, but Parramatta needs to be up to the contest from kickoff here. The Dolphins pack will be hunting, it is inexcusable for the Eels to be caught by surprise.

The Game

Carty has been a real weapon for the Eels

I expect the Dolphins to make this one very tough for us. They’ll spoil, play hard in the middle of the field and defend much better than the form line of conceding 88 in their last two indicates. They’ll hang around and hope some brilliance emerges, and it’ll take a committed effort to get on top of them and an even bigger effort to stay there. Parramatta has to be up for the challenge.

Already the Dolphins have lost hooker Jeremy Marshall-King, so makeshift hooker Sean O’Sullivan will become an instant target in the defensive line. Expect Ray Stone to be alongside him ready to square up anybody looking for an easy run, or Felise Kaufusi hunting for a big hit, hopefully a legal one. It takes out a prime piece of creativity in the Dolphins side, but this game isn’t going to be won by the quality of the players on (or off) the field, but the effort given by those out there.

On that front the Eels have done very well this past month, backing up a huge, season defining win over Souths with a gritty, Origin impacted win over North Queensland and touching up two outmatched opponents in the Bulldogs and Sea Eagles. The Cowboys game is the best analogue here, and it was a game the Eels only put away with in the late stages despite being on top for the whole contest. If the Dolphins get the same latitude in the ruck that the Cowboys got, they’ll spoil and make it difficult for the Eels to get into shape and execute. Given a lively home crowd and a dry track, Parramatta can’t expect any favours in the ruck.

Still, you can’t tip against them. The Eels are on the rise, the Dolphins on the slide. Effortball has taken Wayne Bennett’s gang of rejects and misfits a fair way further than many expected this year, but at the business end of the season the best teams have gears that the Dolphins can’t match. Parramatta needs to, and will, find those gears in this contest. Go you Eels!

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 28 d The 16

Man of the Match: Mitchell Moses

Gol

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