State of Origin might have taken some of the shine off of the traditional Parra and Manly rivalry match this weekend, but you can never take the feeling out of a clash between these old foes. Even without four Origin players and a handful more sidelined by injury or “other”, “Father v Son” as Eels coach Brad Arthur coaches against his son Jake for the first time is a narrative worthy of a beer commercial.

The game might be played without four representative stars, but it counts for two crucial points just like any other match. The winner here secures a spot in the top eight, the loser is dragged further into the swamp that is 10 teams split by 3 competition points. Every battle between sides in that group will have significant ramifications on the makeup of the finals.

The Sea Eagles beat the Eels in their first clash this season, one of the stupider games of 2023 where five tries were scored in the last 12 minutes and Josh Schuster played what has turned out to be his only good game of the year. It was just one of many “should have, could have” games for Parramatta, and this weekend can’t be another added to that category. It might not be the prettiest football you’ll see, but it’s still Parra and Manly. Let’s dig in!

Game Info

Date: Saturday, June 17th, 2023
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Kick-off: 5:30PM AEST
Referee: Chris Butler
Bunker: Adam Gee
Weather: Cold, dry
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Last week was another example of close enough but not quite good enough for the speculation.

The Eels are again at short odds this week despite missing three of the spine and a number of key forwards. Manly’s absences are obviously key in determining the probability of an Eels win.

Taking the -4.5 line for Parra gets you $1.95, and that’s probably the best tip in a clash where I expect the Eels to focus on the basics (completions and kicks).

If you’re feeling more adventurous, there are interesting odds in the score a try and win market. I’ll pretend I’ve put my coin on Hopgood to score in an Eels victory which is returning $7.

Happy, responsible punting,

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Sean Russell 6. Ryan Matterson 7. Daejarn Asi 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Brendan Hands 10. Ofahiki Ogden 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Andrew Davey 13. J’maine Hopgood.14. Luca Moretti 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Matt Doorey 17. Makahesi Makatoa.

18. Haze Dunster 19. Jack Murchie

Ryan Matterson is back, in halves form.

The good news for the Eels is that players are starting to return from injury, including Ryan Matterson and Joe Ofahengaue this week, with Shaun Lane looming on the extended bench for an unlikely early return. The bad news is that Mitchell Moses being called into the NSW team and Dylan Brown being stood down results in Matterson playing five eighth this weekend. He last played five eighth in first grade back in 2019 for the Tigers, but did spend his lower grade football with the Eels as a half. We’ll talk about how that might look later on.

Ofahiki Ogden steps into the starting lineup for Junior Paulo, a deserved promotion for a man who has played some good footy in recent weeks. Josh Hodgson remains sidelined with injury so Brendan Hands will again play 80, with Luca Moretti retaining his place on the bench. If Lane comes back I would expect it is at the expense of Doorey, either directly or via Andrew Davey moving from the starting side to the bench.

Manly Sea Eagles

1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Josh Schuster 7. Jake Arthur 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Toafofoa Sipley 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Samuela Fainu 13. Sean Keppie. 14 Karl Lawton 15. Josh Aloiai 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Ben Condon.

18. Aaron Woods 19. Raymonds Tuaimalo Vaega.

Origin steals Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans from the Sea Eagles, which is certainly a bigger loss for Manly than the equivalent players the Eels lost, and considering we lost our halfback and best forward, that’s a big statement on how important those two men are to Manly’s chances. Kaeo Weekes replaces Trbojevic for the third time this year, while former Eel and mid-season transfer Jake Arthur takes the place of DCE.

There have been plenty of reshuffles across the backline, as noted Eel-killer Brad Parker is out with injury and replaced by Reuben Garrick moving in from the wing. Christian Tuipulotu takes his place. In the pack another former Eel in Sean Keppie locks the scrum for the injured Jake Trbojevic, while Samuela Fainu, who I’ve never heard of, is in the second row, leaving names I actually know on the bench in Josh Aloiai and Ethan Bullemor.

Us

I can’t imagine the gameplan will be very complicated, or pretty, this weekend. Ryan Matterson may be named at five eighth but I would expect, like last week, that Clint Gutherson shares an equal number of touches with halfback Daejarn Asi. Matterson and perhaps Bryce Cartwright will operate as links on the edges, playing a slightly more pass focused game than usual but taking the line on plenty.

I’m as surprised as you are that Bailey Simonsson has turned out to be a very good centre

Asi does have a solid kicking game, but he is no Mitchell Moses which will put more pressure on the Eels middle to dominate the territory battle and press their kick chase. Luckily on the other side of the field Jake Arthur has hardly proven himself Moses’ equal as a kicker in his chances in first grade which might lead to more broken play and kick return opportunities if either side is willing to chance their arm.

This is a game where the forwards will earn their salaries. The chances are going to come from hard earned field position, and that comes from hard running. There’ll be a time and place for good offloading and some passing before the line, but whichever team can provide their makeshift halves the most opportunities is likely to be the one that wins the game.

The Eels are well set in that regard, with Reagan Campbell-Gillard having a game under his belt and some fresh legs. I expect a big return to form from Reg here. As long as Ryan Matterson and Bryce Cartwright don’t overplay their hands, both will make big contributions to any Parramatta victory, and I’m hoping J’maine Hopgood can find the balance between defensive workhorse and being able to use his incredible offloading ability.

The difference in the game could well be what both sides get out of their fringe players. Andrew Davey hasn’t exactly lit it up in an Eels jersey, but he has had a couple of good moments with his ball running. Matt Doorey is another who could break a game open if he finds his form, and Ofahiki Ogden is growing as a player week by week. He’ll relish the chance to start. Makahesi Makatoa isn’t a powerhouse, but he can chew through hard work in big stints which will be valuable when missing some big names. Both packs lack some experience, but I feel there is more upside in guys like Moretti, Davey and Doorey than you’ll find in Keppie, Bullemor, Condon and Lawton.

Them

While I back the Eels forwards to win any contest, the Sea Eagles middles are underrated metre eaters. Taniela Paseka regularly runs 150+ metres but in recent weeks he has been asked to play 50+ minutes and his defensive efficiency has suffered as a result. Toa Sipley hasn’t been trusted as often this year but has made the most of his two starts in recent weeks. Sean Keppie has turned around a career of mediocrity in the last two weeks, going from a guy making 50 metres a game to a guy making 150+.

The biggest danger in that pack is back rower Haumole Olakau’atu, who has been somewhat quieter in recent weeks but is an aggressive carrier and good line runner with a lot of strong recent form against the Eels, including two tries in round 3. He will find a way to pick out smaller men near the line and test them, particularly Hands and Asi.

Speaking of big men, Josh Schuster has had his problems in recent times but he certainly plays against the Eels like he has been holding a grudge. I don’t have any faith he can carry a team as a playmaker, but Jake Arthur should do just enough organising outside him to allow Schuster to pick his moments. Things just happen around him, the Eels need to bash him out of the game early and take away his confidence.

While the Bulldogs last week didn’t do a very good job of exploiting a speed advantage, Manly will probably look to get Jason Saab and Tolu Koula into space early. Saab in particular is miles faster than anybody the Eels can match him with, and the side need to be aware of early kicks, likely coming from Schuster. Without Tom Trbojevic the Sea Eagles won’t have the confidence in their early shifts that we’ve come to expect, so winning field position and recognising when trick shots are coming will be important to winning the battle.

The Game

The King usually stands up in games like these

This is a battle of two teams being led by halfbacks that have barely spent any time with their current first grade squad, and it will play out accordingly. That means winning the middle, creating chances through fatigue and beating your opposite one-on-one in good ball. Disciplined, mistake-free footy hasn’t been a strength of Parramatta this year, and Manly has been middle of the pack for errors and strong in discipline and low missed tackle counts.

Yet even with two of the best attacking players in the game, Manly has been near the bottom of the league in line breaks and tackle breaks. That hasn’t stopped them becoming one of the better attacking teams in the competition, but without the spark of Trbojevic and Cherry-Evans, the individual ability to create through strong running and skill isn’t quite there. They’ve got some fast guys, some big guys and some one-note forwards. The Eels should be able to handle that.

Having watched him lead the Eels around a few times, I’m not too worried about the Jake Arthur revenge game. We know that he isn’t quite up to the speed of first grade, so cutting his decision time and pressuring him should nullify his contributions. Kick pressure will be crucial, especially without our best exponent of it in Josh Hodgson. If we can shut Arthur’s kicking down, the Sea Eagles have no other option. That might generate some desperation chances as they run the ball against a line expecting a kick, but give me a team scrabbling to make a play on the last over a set kick chase line any day of the week.

I worry that Manly will pull off a few moves against the run of play and keep this one close. A fluke kick or bounce from Schuster, getting Saab into open space to use his speed or Olakau’atu running hard in broken play. In an old fashioned grind I think we come out on top, but the result is far from assured. I’ll be very nervous watching this game, but I’m predicting the good guys come out on top.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 20 d Manly 16

Man of the Match: Reagan Campbell-Gillard

Gol

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