I hope you can forgive me that I don’t much feel like celebrating the Parramatta Eels or rugby league this week. You get that way when the five eighth you just entrusted the next decade of the club to adds his name to an unfortunately lengthy list of footballers who are better players than they are role models or citizens.
Dylan Brown’s stand down likely has as much to do with the AM radio bleatings of bitter, agenda driven egomaniacs and the lack of political pull that the Eels have within the NRL as it does with his alleged crimes. Yet the blame lies squarely at the feet of the player for his actions, with some shared along the line to those that have mentored him over his seven years at the club and didn’t make the “keep your hands to yourself” lessons stick.
It takes a lot to suck the excitement out of another chapter in the long Eels v Bulldogs rivalry, but congratulations, this week has managed it. Every match is the same from here: must win, and while the Bulldogs haven’t met their preseason expectations, they’ll smell blood this week and will be a tough out.
Game Info
Date: Monday, June 12th, 2023
Venue: Stadium Australia, Homebush
Kick-off: 4:00PM AEST
Referee: Liam Kennedy
Bunker: Ben Cummins
Weather: Cool, dry
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo
Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)
I don’t understand why an Eels team without Dylan Brown, Shaun Lane, Ryan Matterson, Joe Ofahengaue and Wiremu Greig is at such short odds. It’s been a challenge to tip in this season, and I’m honestly not sure what to expect.
There is minimal value in tipping an Eels win, and I honestly feel like this is a look on match.
When I feel that way I normally look t markets that don’t require tipping winners – total tries, total match points etc. There is no history between Parra and the Dogs that indicates a high scoring game, but I think it will be. Maybe it’s that sort of weekend?
So I’m tipping over 52.5 total match points which is returning $4.00.
Happy, responsible punting,
Sixties
Teams
Parramatta Eels
1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Sean Russell 18. Daejarn Asi 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Junior Paulo 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Andrew Davey 13. J’maine Hopgood.14. Ofahiki Ogden 15. Brendan Hands 16. Matt Doorey 17. Makahesi Makatoa.
19. Jack Murchie 20. Ky Rodwell 21. Haze Dunster 22. Luca Moretti
Yes! Reg is back baby!
While there is one notable out that we’ve talked about earlier and will talk more about later, there are some troops coming back for the Eels this week. Reagan Campbell-Gillard is slated for a slightly early return, joined in the front row by Junior Paulo returning from Origin duty. Andrew Davey takes his spot in the second row back after a concussion stand down, pushing Matt Doorey to the bench.
The other out is Wiremu Greig, gone for what is probably the season with a lisfranc injury that usually has a 5-6 month recovery. It’s a massive shame for the big man who was coming into his own as a first grade footballer and an impact weapon. I’d love to have seen what he could do with this new found confidence off the bench, but instead Ofahiki Ogden will get the chance to cement that role for 2023.
Canterbury Bulldogs
1. Hayze Perham 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Jake Averillo 4. Paul Alomoti 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Karl Oloapu 7. Matt Burton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Tevita Pangai Junior 11. Jayden Okunbor 12. Jacob Preston 13. Harrison Edwards. 14. Khaled Rajab 15. Kurtis Morrin 16. Chris Patolo 17. Corey Waddell.
18. Kyle Flanagan 19. Jackson Topine 20. Braidon Burns 21. Blake Wilson 22. Franklin Pele
There are a lot of unfamiliar names in that Bulldogs team, who are recovering from an injury crisis of their own that has put forwards Viliame Kikau, Raymond Faitala-Mariner and Luke Thompson out of action and may yet claim the best player for the Eels in the round 7 clash, Reed Mahoney, who is in doubt with concussion.
Boom rookie Karl Oloapu has been thrown to the wolves at five eighth, shifting Matt Burton to half, while walking brainsnap Jayden Okunbor has shifted from the wing to the edge. The most generic name in the NRL locks the scrum in Harrison Edwards, who I can tell you nothing else about.
On the bench, I guess Josh Reynolds is suspended, again, so Khaled Rajab plays his second NRL game as a utility. The rest of that bench hardly strikes fear in the hearts of opposition packs, and Corey Waddell is always good for a mistake or two so hopefully he sees plenty of action.
Us
Having just released their backup half to Manly for mostly compassionate reasons, the Eels are now without their international five eighth indefinitely. While it is debatable whether Jake Arthur would have stepped into the halves in this case (he’s a much closer like-for-like to Mitch Moses than he is Brown), it does limit the choice of backups to one: 2023 recruit Daejarn Asi.
An extended chance in first grade may be exactly what Asi needs. He has impressed in brief stints at the Cowboys and Warriors, playing all across the backline but looking most at home as a five eighth. His time in reggies across NSW Cup and Qld Cup has been similarly nomadic, playing wherever he is needed which, for the Eels side this year, has mostly been fullback.
Will Penisini is one of the form centres in the NRL
Asi has put on eight tries in 12 NSW Cup games this year, and has equalled that amount in his 18 first grade appearances over three seasons. He’s got a solid kicking game and is a good runner of the ball, making him a good fill-in for the role Brown plays in the Eels side. Asi’s defensive efficiency is the main concern in first grade, he certainly won’t be making the defensive plays of Dylan Brown, but with the ball he should be a capable replacement.
With only five days to prepare for life without Brown, it is unlikely we see the final form of what Parramatta football sans Dylan looks like this week. Brown and Moses have shared playmaking duties equally through 2023, something that just won’t be able to happen with Asi in the halves, so Mitchell Moses will likely step up into a controlling role. He should set season highs in touches and runs, and that will be good news for Andrew Davey and Matt Doorey, provided they can run some solid lines on the right edge. Will Penisini should be a beneficiary as well, particularly as he has been electric with every touch over the last month.
The path to victory against the Bulldogs last time around was through the middle of the field, and I suspect the second verse will be same as the first in the rematch. The Eels outgained the Bulldogs by 500 metres, helped by a lack of discipline by their opponents and Reagan Campbell-Gillard having a mammoth game. Without Shaun Lane and Ryan Matterson that level of dominance may be difficult to match, but RCG, Junior and Ogden should bring more than enough heat to toast the Bulldogs lukewarm pack.
Them
Last time around the story of the Bulldogs was the capitulation of Reed Mahoney, who was bullied by his former teammates targeting him mercilessly. He made mistakes, didn’t get the ball away from dummy half, and fell off of tackles. Even without knowing if he will play, there is a good chance he will be more composed and put in a better performance now that the emotion of his return to Parramatta is behind him. That isn’t to say the Eels won’t be trying to exploit the weaknesses in his game, but him having another shocker can’t be relied upon as a path to victory.
The Bulldogs do have a couple of attacking weapons with proven history carving the Eels apart. Tevita Pangai usually finds his best attacking form against us, throwing offloads at will and generally causing trouble with every touch. Josh Addo-Carr has speed nobody in the Parramatta backline can match, and while Clint Gutherson did a great job containing it last time around, Matt Burton has a great high kick and there has been history of the Eels struggling under bombs in the last few seasons.
Providing the Eels can shut down those threats, there are opportunities to be had against this side. Hayze Perham was brushed off like a toddler tackling a grown man when faced with Will Penisini running at him, and any line break should be able to be converted into a try, whether support is there or not. Those breaks should come, the Bulldogs have conceded the third most points of teams this season and scored the second fewest. Nearly half of those points are conceded down their left edge, where Mitchell Moses and Will Penisini will be licking their lips in anticipation.
The Game
It’s all on your shoulders, Mitch
Even without Dylan Brown, there is no excuse for the Eels conceding a lot of points in this one. The Bulldogs are last in the NRL in line breaks, second last in post contact metres, concede the most penalties and miss the second most tackles. They don’t do a lot with the ball and are frail without it. They have thrown a rookie half to the wolves to be paired with a centre with a kicking game, neither of whom is capable of taking an NRL team by the horns and directing it around the park. They have to be beaten.
Brown’s stand down is a setback, but it isn’t the end of the 2023 Parramatta season. The upcoming draw is friendly enough to give the Eels some time to adjust to their new spine, but at the same time, any loss could be a mortal wound to their 2023 finals chances. The forwards, once again, need to stand up and win this game.
No game is easy in 2023, and upsets lurk around every corner. We’ve already been shocked by two too many of those upsets, so the Eels best be showing up fully committed to the cause on Monday. The Bulldogs may not have looked great so far this year, but their season balances on a knife’s edge just like our own, and that level of pressure can galvanise a team. They’ll make it tough, but if Parramatta can’t win here, they’ll have nobody to blame but themselves.
Go you Eels!
Prediction: Parramatta 30 d Canterbury 16
Man of the Match: Mitchell Moses
Gol
This is a very good preview Gol. I like and concur with what you said about Dylan shooting himself in the foot.
I also like your analysis on the game. If we were to lose this it would be very disappointing. However as you point out we still have the talent to win.
So disappointed for Woody. I have liked him since his first game with the Eels. It is always easy to like the big guy in your team who has more than his fair share of mongrel.
John, I spoke with Woody on Saturday. He remains very upbeat about his season.
Tks Gol, good write-up. On paper, I don’t get nervous about the selected team, it’s got enough of everything to compete strongly with the Bulldogs. I still get nervous about our consistency, but I look to the senior players, and there’s plenty of them, to set the platform for our game plan. High completions please.
Good luck to Daejarn Asi, I have not seen him play this year, but having a few NRL games under his belt at other clubs takes the first time factor out of play and he gets to fit in with some really good players who will bring out his best.
BDon, we have to trust that the next up man will get the job done. Whether it’s short term or long term, it’s all over the Daejarn now.
When I saw the appointment of the ref and more so the touchie Noyen, I thought someone at the NRL was a bit of sadist
Yeah, I noticed the ref in particular. Seemed scared to blow his whistle last time out against the Cowboys. Surely he can’t be worse than that time, can he?
I’d hope we learn from his last game and take full advantage of his reluctance to blow the whistle, rather than what we usually do of playing our normal, penalty-averse game and giving quick ruck to an opponent who then gets to lay all over us.
The trouble as I see it is that once we start doing what other teams do, the refs get stuck in. As it is, they somehow find ruck infringements for minor issues with us, compared to the opposition.
Yes Graz, I too remember Noyen and that NRLW call he made.
I failed to understand the NRL decision with Brown. Five years maximum penalty if guilty. What happened to the compulsory 11 years policy? The NRL are flipfloppers. Ammone from Saint George attacks a guy with a hammer and he is allowed to play. What gives? NRL.is on its own with stupid rules.
And just the same – when will footballers get the message – they are not gods who can do what they like.
Monday – Parra never goes well. But. here’s hoping
Zero, I’ve stayed out of most of this. I think the NRL emphasise the discretionary nature of their stand down policy. There is undoubtedly a combination of factors at play – dealing with someone’s behaviour, dealing with shock jock pressure and public perception and ultimately dealing with evidence.
This season sure has had its fair share of unluckiness in injuries, and now stupidity in behaviour.
Fair dues, if Brown has a case to answer, then there is a case to answer, irrespective of the lottery of the stand-down rule.
But he is young, with a lot more room for growth in maturity and, if Matt Lodge can still have an NRL career after what he did, then there should certainly be a path to redemption for a young man like Brown with authentic contrition, appropriate punishment and and affected change in behaviour.
Monday is a big one for the Eels in that it provides an opportunity to jump 4 ladder placings to sit just 1 point behind 8th placed Manly.
Despite the adversity, I hope the motivation is there.
Sharks getting smashed by Storm at halftime. Nicho having a shocker. I was hoping he would have a blinder.
Haha I was hoping the same, John.
We are selfish as fans 🤣
Mitch probably thinks the $30,000 wouldn’t go astray
Graz it is not $30,000 anymore. I think around $15,000. Still not to be sneezed at.
For him it is more about getting to play with a team full of elite players. I think it will bring out the best in him playing at that level if he gets the opportunity.
Last time he filled in for Cleary he had a good game. Especially in the second half after Wighton had tried to do it all by himself in the first half. Felipe Kaufusi hitting him late in the back did him no favours.
Was the Kaufusi hit in the first half? From memory, yes. Played out the game wounded, didn’t look out of depth at all, as you said, Wighton overplayed. I think it’s back to $30k now, the 15 was a Covid squeeze.
Take your point on the payment. I was not aware it had gone up again.
When Mitch was injured by Felise I think it was about the 8 minute mark.
Well said Chris.
Gol, second verse same as the first.is that a Ramones reference?
Herman’s Hermits – Henry the VIIIth.
And yes, I know it’s tragic that I know that.
Showing your vintage Billie
I thought the same
Thanks Gol, we just have to win. And win at all costs. It’s simple; each player do their job and we will win.
Still the better team Milo.
I’m pretty nervous about this game the game after a bye always makes me nervous.
Keen to see what Asi offers our season is sitting on the cusp of a good run or big fall injuries and our 5/8s sticky hands followed by potential origin call ups we need to bank the points while we can
Good summary including the emotional journey
Given all of the circumstances going into this game. That was a very nice win.
There is a photo on Fox where Koli is rubbishing Steve Smith for getting out at the Oval to a rubbish shot in the second innings.
If you look into the background of the photo, you will see a Para supporter in an Eels jacket watching on.
Eels supporters are everywhere.