This is a bit more difficult to write after the last few performances from the Eels.
Let’s face it, the numbers have been awful across the board.
By way of difference, rather than running through the typical match stats, I’m going to examine the returns of two Eels players renowned for the impact of their running game.
Let me be clear, this isn’t apportioning blame to these two. However, when breaking down a team whose performances are drifting further away from their best, a team showing none of their traits from earlier in the season, I wanted to explore how individuals can also stray from their strengths.
First up I’ll look at Dylan Brown’s runs over the last two games against Souths and Manly.
We all know how much of a devastating running 5/8 Dylan is, but when we look at his runs and stats over the past fortnight you really can see a player straying from his natural game and obviously way down on confidence.
Dylan Brown vs Manly
Four runs for 38 metres really isn’t the Dylan Brown we know and love.
Dylan Brown vs Souths
Four runs for 34 metres. The runs are in different locations but there’s an involvement trend.
Now lets compare his game to Cody Walker’s.
Cody Walker vs Eels
Although Cody didn’t run for huge metres, his involvement and knowing when to chime into the back line sees him as the competitions leading number 6. Now consider where Souths tore Parra apart and look at how this heat map relates.
Some of the best players the game has ever seen, learn by watching videos of opposition players. Billy Slater was renowned for his library of footage of other fullbacks.
Perhaps Dylan can sit down, watch some video and start to learn where and how to impose himself in attack.
Now we look at Maika Sivo.
After a promising start to the season, Sivo’s contributions have become disappointingly low. His recent lack of involvement in games has alarm bells ringing.
Sivo v Souths
The 13 runs for 106 metres are at the low end of involvement for a winger and average out at around 8 metres per run.
Sivo v Manly
Given the role of outside backs in kick returns, or early set carries, these 8 runs for 68 metres really aren’t good numbers for the big Fijian. It seems like he’s waiting for the game to come to him. These running metres break down as 39 kick return metres, 19 Hit Up Metres and just 9 normal run metres.
And now to this last week’s team heat maps.
Against Manly we had plenty of runs in the Manly half but just nothing worked. Both Runs and Set Starts were plentiful in the Manly half.
Runs v Manly
Set Starts v Manly
These graphics don’t look as awful as you’d expect, but sometimes a picture might tell a different story to the result. Which brings us naturally to defence.
The Eels defence has rightly become a major talking point. Time and time again I have mentioned our compressed defence and our inability to slide when the opposition shift the ball to their wings.
Six tries down the left side against Manly were further evidence of Parra’s defensive struggles – and the inability to defend against the most basic shift is becoming more pronounced.
To be clear, the blame starts further in. The woes stem from the decisions and movement of the edge forwards, then the trouble spreads out to the centre and wingers.
The wingers are getting found out because their feet are planted, or they have to jam in because their inside men have read the play incorrectly, leaving the winger with no other option.
The only time this season our edge defence was functioning consistently well was when Marata was playing in the centres. We beat Melbourne with that team structure. But we went away from it. We still had quality middle forwards to cover for Marata yet this combination hasn’t been used again.
There is so many possible points for discussion and everyone has their own opinions.
Where do the Eels start? Better recruiting? Rethink their Sports Science department? New coach?
Do we need to throw lots of money at say Joseph Manu or do we focus on retention?
Are our top players worth top dollar without being premiership winners and/or consistent representative players?
For the players coming off contract, do the Eels management take a step back and really look at the worth of those blokes for a full season, and not just what they produce for half or three quarters of a season?
All I know is I am die hard Blue and Gold man and whatever happens, my passion and love for this great club will never waver.
Yours in Blue and Gold
Colmac
Good observations Colmac and I couldn’t agree more on your comment re Marata and your ending sentiment.
Dylan Brown and Mika Sivo are two very difficult conundrums for the Eels front office.
For Dylan Brown, you could blame the men inside him not winning the ruck and giving him the room and a retreating defence, or when comparing him to Cody Walker you could say that the total lack of attacking threat outside Brown allows the defence to target him. But, the harsh reality is Brown isn’t developing. Every Eels fan wants it to happen and would be guttered if he was lost. But despite having the mentoring of the great Andrew Johns, his game really hasn’t developed. His effort is brilliant, chasing down line breaks like Hindmarsh once did and his speed off the mark is such a potential asset. But the ball playing the engaging of defenders and reading gaps in defence has not matured. When you compare him to Shuster, who he had those battles with in U/20’s, it starts to become a question of – Is this yet another junior prodigy in the Eels system that never gets to the heights of what every one wanted and hoped.
Sivo, has long been a Sunday afternoon dry track specialist. If he ran has hard from his own 10m line as he does when he is 10m from the try line, he would be fantastic. If he just ran hard at Saab last week he would have made 20m every single time. it is difficult to say a player with 17 tries should be in reserve grade (if reserve grade was a thing), but he really should if he is to learn there is more to playing wing than crashing over the try line.
Great work Colmac as always.
Dylan Brown has been a worry for a long while, is he playing to instructions or is he holding back? Or both. 2 try assists is not a playmaker. He is a great runner, kicker but doesn’t do much of either. He is a great defender and that’s been his best asset this year. He would be better at No 9, darting out of dummy half, early kicks,40/20s to take the pressure and predictability off Moses. Bring Smith or Cartwright to 6.
Waqa is a great finisher and he can’t pass so he could replace Sivo on the wing and bring in Penisini and keep him there.
We were definitely at our best when Marata was at centre, things turned badly when that was changed.
The players are playing like they hate each other.
A circuit breaker is needed given we are guaranteed 6th let’s rest and test the players now so they are fresh for the finals.
Gutho – would rest him but he’s best no1.
Waqa – finisher not provider
Penisini – don’t know why he was dropped
Marata
Dunster
Smith
Moses
Makatoa – the effort was rewarded
Lussick
Pappali
Lane – can play 80. Was good last year
Cartwright – already lost 4 games
Stone – already lost 4 games
D Brown – Needs a rocket. Cover for Lussick
N Brown – Tired/errors – need impact
Paulo – Tired – need impact
Kafusi – HIA
Could not agree more Colmac, Marata was great on the edge / centre role. To me it is our mental toughness and attitude towards defence that needs to be much better.
I have no idea how we will aim up this week, and believe the 80 min performance will be the only way forward.
To me it does not matter about recruitment, its about the mental toughness of the team, and this comes from within.
Leadership as captain and team leadership with coaching is also imperative and now is the time.
Tks Colmac. Many said Marata will eventually get found out in the centres, Will Kennedy (Sharks) stepped him once and I thought here it is, they’ll hang him for that, when Kennedy steps the best of them every week. No, he was raised as a centre and then manufactured as a forward. He actually knew what he was doing, when blind Freddy (Fittler??) could see that others didn’t. I’ve thought all along that we have either a laziness, lack of agility or a ‘I’ve done my job’ attitude from the inside when opponents go wide, and allowed to work their plays like training runs. My first ground attendance was v Manly at BankWest and I could see huge corridors out wide with Turbo and Schuster causing havoc with our numbers in the wink of an eye, our middle was pretty tight all day, you know ‘I’ve done my job’, but it was like we had 2 separate defensive units.
Good analysis and you shine a light on 2 players who are off their A game. I think you could similarly focus on Paulo, Brown bros, opacic & gutho. Here’s hoping the new blood fires a return to form. And 100% agree about Marata – we’ve lacked stability since he was moved.