Date: Thursday, March 12, 2020
Venue: BankWest Stadium, Parramatta
Kick Off: 8:05pm
Referees: Grant Atkins, Peter Gough
Head-to-head: Played 158 Eels 67 Bulldogs 84 Drawn 7
Odds: Eels $1.35 Bulldogs $3.25
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo
Last Four Encounters:
Bulldogs 12 Eels 6 Bankwest Stadium (2019)
Eels 36 Bulldogs 16 ANZ Stadium (2019)
Eels 14 Bulldogs 8 ANZ Stadium (2018)
Bulldogs 20 Eels 12 ANZ Stadium (2018)
The Warm Up
The upside to being walloped in the NRL has always been the following week’s opportunity for redemption. When Parra had to supplant that week with an entire pre-season, their wait for atonement for a finals capitulation to the Storm must surely have felt like an eternity.
Whetting the appetite even more in this round one clash is the chance for the Eels to avenge the late season loss to the Bulldogs which effectively ended their pursuit of a top four spot in the 2019 Finals Series. It was an ugly loss at a time when the Eels were building momentum.
The “Doggies”, the Eels greatest rival for the throne of the most dominant team of the 80s, will have their own motivation for the win. Few rate them as any chance of qualifying for the Top 8, so there’ll be a point to prove against their much vaunted western Sydney rivals.
Canterbury will bark and niggle all night in an attempt to drag the Eels into the kind of spoiling contest that they’re famous for.
Not that their football capabilities should be sold short. Talent and physicality in the forwards has been partnered with a young and exuberant back line to create a team that caused more than their share of upsets in the back half of last season. But can they overcome the last minute off-field dramas that have resulted in the loss of arguably their most dangerous forward, Corey Harawira -Naera?
For their part, the Eels are fielding a team tipped by many to challenge for the title, and they hold the home ground advantage. With all players fit to begin the season, supporters will be expecting them to hit the ground running.
A close to sell out crowd at Bankwest Stadium has been predicted.
There’s probably no better way to begin the season.
I’ll repeat my words of advice from last year.
“The Eels faithful need to get loud and drown out the Bulldogs drums.
Those on the corporate side, get ready to rattle your jewellery.”
Bring. It. On!
Feed Your Footy Brain
In their last 18 clashes, dating all the way back to 2011, the Eels have struggled to score points against the Bulldogs. Over that period, they’ve only registered more than twenty points on two occasions; a 22 to 12 victory in 2014 and last year’s 36 to 16 result at ANZ Stadium.
In that same time frame, the Dogs have registered more than 20 points on six occasions.
However, that stat is probably misleading, given that none of those Bulldogs scores have occurred in the last 8 encounters. Even after their last up win, the Dogs recent record against Parra reads two from eight.
Using those last eight matches as a form guide, indications are that total match points will be less than 40. Only one of those matches produced 40 or more points, with five games sitting at less than 30 match points.
Sixties’ Quest For The Filthy Lucre
(Quoted markets are NSW TAB)
If you follow the only statistic that rarely changes between these teams (see above), then you take on the total match points market. Selecting less than 39.5 points – @$1.90 – would have produced a return for punters in 7 of the last 8 games.
But far be it for me to tip the opening round based on logic! If I was logical I wouldn’t suggest going on the punt.
I’m looking for more than money back with this tip. Take the first half line/over under double with Parra -5.5/over 18.5 total points with the return of $3.20.
I’ll keep an updated tally on a weekly $20 investment so you can have a laugh throughout the season.
Current bank: zero
Usual gambling warnings apply.
Tracking: Waqa Blake
With a much vaunted spine, and two big name forward recruits, why nominate Blake as the Eels player to watch in this match?
The answer is simple.
Big Waqa is probably the most unknown quantity in the Eels top 13.
Waqa Blake
He was a mid season acquisition in 2019, and was just starting to find his groove in the team in the last few games. Post season, he sustained an injury during the World Nines, forcing him into an entire preseason of rehab.
The talented Fijian is taking his place in this centres this week without playing a solitary minute of trial footy. This isn’t a rushed decision. It’s been the plan since January.
That’s not to say that he hasn’t had any time in opposed sessions. Blake has trodden the usual path of non-contact opposed, then full contact work. He’s renewed acquaintances with Moses and Fergo, and started to built up a combination with Ryan Matterson.
Waqa has looked all power, pace and class during his rehabilitation journey. He absolutely glides over the turf when he runs.
I’m expecting him to find form very quickly. He will make an impact this week.
Danger Man: Reimis Smith
In my original draft for the preview, I nominated Corey Harawira-Naera as the danger man. Without question, the Bulldogs are weakened by his exclusion.
Smith introduces Maika to the Liverpool kiss.
In his absence I’ve nominated former Eels NYC winger, Reimis Smith.
And just like my selection of Waqa Blake, putting the spotlight on him is all about the unknown factor.
There’s no questioning the pace and elusiveness of “Smith the Winger”. However, his exposed form as a centre is minimal.
Will the Dogs benefit by putting him closer to the action or will his positional play – especially defensive inexperience – be a liability?
Is it a genius play or forced by necessity?
The Eels are bound to look for the answers.
Team Lists:
Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Michael Jennings 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6.Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown
Interchange: 14. Brad Takairangi 15. Marata Niukore 16. Kane Evans 17. Peni Terepo 18. Will Smith 19. Ray Stone 20. Oregon Kaufusi 21. George Jennings
Bulldogs: 1. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 2. Nick Meaney 3. Reimis Smith 4. Will Hopoate 5. Christian Crichton 6. Brandon Wakeham 7. Lachlan Lewis 8. Aiden Tolman 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Dylan Napa 11. Josh Jackson 12. Joe Stimson 13. Adam Elliott
Interchange: 14. Dean Britt 15. Renouf To’omaga 16. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 17. Kerrod Holland 18. Ofahiki Ogden 19. Jake Averillo 20. Sione Katoa 21. Jack Cogger
And The Winner Is?
Cue the usual references about a lottery when it comes to tipping results in the opening round of the season. And for good reason.
You can forget about using trial form – good, bad or anything in between, it can all be tossed aside.
So we look to the team lists and try to determine, using only 2019 form, the strongest side on paper. And we all know the folly of picking winners on paper! Rugby league matches aren’t won on resumes.
The 2019 form guide tells you that the Bulldogs hit their straps in the latter part of the season, with the Eels joining a list of their scalps. The Dogs played the type of footy that caused opponents to lose focus. They found a way to scrap out the wins that they couldn’t find earlier in the year.
Brown fires up
Their Round 23 victory over Parra was typical of that. The 12 points to 6 result was one of only two losses suffered by the Eels at Bankwest Stadium. It was a tight, niggling affair that saw Nathan Brown lose his cool with an outrageous shoulder charge which triggered a near all-in melee.
Any Eels game plan went out the window as the Bulldogs dictated how the match would be played and Parra simply obliged. It’s not too much of a stretch to predict that Canterbury will approach this week’s encounter with similar intent.
Ultra fast line speed, a tight and controlled middle and pushing the referee’s limits in the wrestle will form the basis of their defence. A steady platform from the forwards with a dose of second phase will be at the core of their attack. It’s unlikely that such offence will cause too many surprises, but they’ll aim for a high completion rate and good territory to apply the pressure.
What do the Eels need to do to be the team dictating the direction of this match?
Without giving too much away, I’m expecting subtle differences to the Eels already formidable attack. You’ll see far more than you witnessed in the trials. The form of Moses, Brown, Gutherson and Mahoney will be key to the Eels’ fortunes. Furthermore, the additional firepower in the pack via the contributions of Campbell-Gillard and Matterson will be asking new questions of the Dog’s defence.
That said, the Eels need to find the next gear in their defence in 2020, especially when under pressure in the quarter. Premierships are won on the back of a consistent, uncompromising defence. We all recognise the scoring potential in the Parramatta squad. They can attack with the ball, it’s time to attack against it! The Bulldogs might not throw too many attacking challenges at their opponents, but they don’t rattle easily. As such, they’re probably a good early season yardstick to gauge how the defensive attitude is tracking.
Obviously, I can’t offer much insight about the Dogs in the lead in to this clash, but standing down Corey Harawira-Naera will impact their attack.
Conversely, from what I’ve seen of the Eels, they’re focussed and the senior players seem to have found a new level of ownership for what they will produce.
On that basis, I’m tipping the Eels to overcome an enthusiastic Bulldogs team by a healthy margin.
Eels 28 Bulldogs 14
Man of the Match – Mitch Moses
Eels forever!
Sixties
Images courtesy AAP, NRL and Eels media
Nice first up report for 2020, Sixties. Man that’s starting to get confusing with a 40/20 thrown in. I might change my name to 20/40!
A gritty pack of Dogs are always going to keep us honest. There’s been plenty of talk about how the dogs beat us at home last year. I’m sure I don’t have to remind everyone that it was a THURSDAY NIGHT game. Did anyone else notice that the other game we lost at Fortress Bankwest last year was against the Riff on a THURSDAY NIGHT!!!!! ARGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I am confident enough to pick the Eels to win, but I don’t share your enthusiasm for the score line. I’m expecting a low scoring battle up the middle with a slippery ball creating more than a few moments of flat lining heart rate on my part.
My 2 sons and I have been counting down the “sleeps till kickoff” for the past 2 weeks. See you at the game folks!
Welcome to season proper everyone!
I haven’t forgotten JonBoy. I sat with you over on the jewellery rattling side on that Thursday night last year. We played passionate but dumb footy that night. I’m sure we’ll be focussed this week.
Looking at the pic of Brown and Jackson, shows up perhaps one of the greatest artists of niggle in the modern game, and he has the size to be able to show and prove it. I believe the eels will win but the game could be torrid, having one of our favourite and best refs in charge always allows for the eels to win, on the most penalties against.
Will be interesting to see how the new rules are enforced and covered by both sides also.
Eels to win but not by a great amount 7.
You did have to remind me about the officials Colin. I was doing my best to avoid it. Hopefully they aren’t a factor.
I was doing ok until I saw his name as a ref for the match, hope his old man can put some sense into for the eels.
Ps, You had to tell me who his dad was and really made things much sadder.
Dogs yet to lose at Bankwest? I know they are a tough team etc. But I am getting a feeling about this one.Eels will be in fine form and unstoppable , 36 -6.
I thought about being bolder with my tip Eggman but there’s always the risk of looking very wrong rather than a little wrong when you go for the big win call. I chose to be what I considered conservative by limiting it to a 14 point margin.
Sixties, as long as we defend and play our game we will be ok. More pressure on us but we will be ok. I predict a 24-10 win, MOM RCG
That’s the key Milo. Play our game and we win comfortably. Let them dictate and it’s a long night ahead.
Yes and a game against this type of team is what we need in my view.
I am north of the border.
What is the actual starting time.
Is it 7.05pm or 8.05pm.
NRL app says 7.05.pm.
And remember BA is the coach – it’s his head on the chopping block.
Not everyone’s selection choice with Penni but we go with it.
Parra by 20 points.
805 NSW time, so that means 705 QLD time.
Correct.
Thanks. It was somewhat confusing.
“Ultra fast line speed, a tight and controlled middle…” sounds good Sixties. If we can keep the Dogs to 2 tries or less we should have to many points in us; 24 tries to 12 is my tip/hope.
I anticipate a comfortable win but I don’t want the players to feel that way, if that makes sense. They have to feel like every point is earned.
Geez Sixties, Score should be Eels 28+ Dogs 2 or zero. This Eels side shouldn’t have more than a penalty or two scored against them facing this depleted Dogs side. If the Dogs spring a win then good luck to them, but if the unlikely does happen I hope Brad starts dropping the non performers
It’s round 1 Ray. They haven’t had time to be non performers.i don’t want the players to be thinking about a slaughter. If your goal is a landslide win, then the chances are you will fail because you won’t be thinking about earning it. That was a problem last year. After big wins we’d think we could do it the next. But that’s not treating the opposition with respect. Earn the right every week, big score or not.
Spot on sixties and that’s the message and game plan for the team against the pups on Thursday night.
Yes Sixties, point taken, I’m probably over assessing the situation as usual, getting too excited LOL. I’ll just settle for a win.
Supporting is a passion RayT. Without passion we wouldn’t really be supporters.
Its Footy Season!!! Yeah Baby. Looking forward to reading plenty of victory reports this year.
Mitch and Forty are warming up as I type..
We became a little error prone in the Penrith trial after the game was an arm wrestle for the first 15 minutes. Hope we’ve got that wrinkle ironed out, a Dogs game will need good mental application,energy and patience to break them down and put some Parra punishment on them.
We’ll be right BDon. That was a trial. The team look very focussed.
Ethan Parry not named for NSWP cup? What’s on there 60s?
He’ll need to battle for a spot from RM Cup. He’s not been at his best.
Great read as usual mate.
We can’t play the dogs in the slugfest arm wrestle slow down the ruck game . We need to play upbeat , sideline to sideline and use our edge runners to fully expose their weaknesses . If RCG and junior can punch hard early we will create opportunities. The last few days is going to unite the dogs initially and then reality will hit them hard and fast if we have our game heads on.
Just had hip surgery so won’t be there but cheering loudly from the lounge at home . Enjoy everyone ✅
More surgery mate? Keep well. Parra will create opportunities, far more than the trials. I’ll cheer extra loud for you.
Thanks Sixties, great read and great offseason coverage. Looking forward to tonight. I hope we can dominate the Bulldogs pack. They have a great pack and they’ll be trying to get under the skin of N Brown. I’m positive although surprised by a couple selections on the bench.
Anyway, this is a real test.
Hi Guys, I haven forgotten any of last year, strange no one mentioned the first game of the nines, could be very similar, although I have suspicion BA was playing the nines in regulation with a view to it being a genuine trial.
I will be disappointed if Dogs score 14 as per your prediction 60’s, even more so of course if we don’t win.
I have said for a long time that we should approach every game with a view of conceding no more than 2 tries and a total of 12 points.
I will back us to score more than 12 on 90% of occasions, that means if we can keep the opposition to 12 or less we win all but 3 games.
That’s a good season!
Finals? stick with the plan!
24 plus to 6 is my target……but I am always an optimist!
PS I will take 32 to 30 all my bullshit notwithstanding!
Ignore that first game of the Nines. Ignore trials. We are switched on. I can’t argue too much with less than 12 points and you’d want that. I’m thinking a penalty goal and two converted tries, but I concede that such a score wouldn’t be ideal.
Cheers Pete. The Dogs game is always a test, somehow, some way. But I’m confident about this one.