Date: Saturday, July 27, 2019
Venue: BankWest Stadium, Parramatta
Kick Off: 3:00pm
Referees: Chris Sutton, Chris Butler
Head-to-head: Played 40 Eels 21 Warriors 18 Drawn 1
Odds: Eels $1.55 Warriors $2.50
Broadcast: Foxtel, Kayo
Last Four Encounters:
Warriors 24 Eels 14 ANZ Stadium (2018)
Eels 32 Warriors 24 ANZ Stadium (2017)
Warriors 22 Eels 10 Mt Smart (2017)
Eels 40 Warriors 18 Mt Smart (2016)
The Warm Up
Just when you thought that “bad Parra” had been quarantined for the season, those ills proved that they were still free-ranging within the Eels psyche, completely immune to the importance of any match.
What Eels team will front up on Saturday at BankWest?
The Panthers game aside, the Blue and Gold Army have had plenty to cheer about since home matches have returned to Parramatta. On this basis alone, the assumption would be that the Eels will be switched on this weekend. The bookies seem to agree.
What of the Warriors?
Much was made about them being unable to convert a monstrous territorial and possession advantage into more points against the Sharks. From my perspective, it was one of their best performances of the season.
Why?
They had a game plan which led to enjoying such dominance, and they didn’t deviate from that path when the points were tougher to come by. Such composure is a winning formula.
The video sessions this week, for both teams, will highlight the undeniable – the weaknesses in Parramatta’s defence.
Opposition teams enjoy incredible latitude through the Eels middle – mostly on the back of a passive line, minimal wrestle, and the subsequent fast play the balls with defenders still on the turf.
Oregon celebrates his first NRL try.
The 2019 Eels are the least penalised team in the NRL, and ruck infringements are obviously down. Yet it must be asked – are the Eels sacrificing match momentum in allowing such fast play-the-balls? The loss of hard working forward, Shaun Lane, won’t make the pack’s task any easier. That said, there’s interest created by the inclusion of Oregon Kaufusi and the return of Danny Alvaro.
This could be a high scoring encounter.
That’s becoming standard fare for the 2019 Eels.
Having a Punt
Those punters that took my suggested TAB special market bet – both teams to score 20 points or more @ $3.75 – came up trumps even though the Eels went down.
Professional punters will probably give this match a wide berth. History tells them that form lines count for nothing in many matches that involve these teams. A match between them could be anyone’s guess.
This week I’m going to make two suggestions.
My banker bet is the old fave of mine – the line/ over under double. Take the Eels giving away 5.5 start coupled with over 44.5 total match points paying a delicious $3.60.
The long shot bet is for Warriors forward, Agnatius Paasi to score a try anytime @ $9.00. With huge question marks over the Eels defence, there might just be a try to be found by a big Warriors forward.
The favourites in the first try scorer market are:
Eels: Sivo $7 Hoffman $8
Warriors: Beale $10 Maumalo $10
Feed Your Footy Brain
The Eels have a poor recent record against the Warriors, winning just two of their last seven clashes.
Coincidentally, the Eels have played the Warriors at Parramatta just once during those seven clashes – and that was a 17 to 13 loss back in 2015.
Do the Warriors have the wood on the Eels or has the venue been the mitigating factor?
Tracking: Waqa Blake
This is the debut that Eels supporters have been itching to see.
Over the last few weeks, I’ve been watching Blake go through his rehab program on the Old Saleyards fields and the message for fellow supporters is simple. This bloke is the real deal.
The talented centre fairly glides over the ground, and is lightning quick at full pace. Eels players have welcomed him with open arms, and with a couple of weeks of opposed sessions under his belt, he’s ready to go.
Tall and powerful, Blake can beat an opponent with pace or a fend. Brad Takairangi has shown how valuable big centres can be when chasing offensive kicks. The Eels will be taking in that strike power on both sides of the field against the Warriors.
Ayshford and Hiku might be in for a long afternoon!
Danger man: Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
No prizes to me for nominating this bloke.
As the 2018 Dally M winner, RTS has a very impressive resume of performances. His 2019 numbers aren’t too shabby either.
The evasive Warriors custodian continues to offer a safe harbour for arachnids – as evidenced by his average of five tackle breaks per game. He takes full advantage of these misses in clocking up 198 metres per game, with a ridiculous season high of 334 metres.
The concern for the Eels is what Tom Turbo did to them around the ruck last week. He repeatedly got into dummy half and ran. His pace created lines breaks and fast play the balls.
Tuivasa-Sheck will eat those sorts of opportunities up! Any slow moving forward will be facing his prodigious step – and given that he averages 31.7 possessions per game, I’m expecting him to do what comes so naturally for him.
The Eels best beware!
Team Lists:
Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Brad Takairangi 4. Waqa Blake 21. Ethan Parry 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Kane Evans 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Marata Niukore 12. Manu Ma’u 13. Nathan Brown
Interchange: 14. Oregon Kaufusi 15. Daniel Alvaro 16. David Gower 17. Tepai Moeroa 18. Jaeman Salmon 19. Andrew Davey
Warriors: 1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 2. Gerard Beale 3. Peta Hiku 4. Blake Ayshford 5. Ken Maumalo 6.Kodi Nikorima 7. Blake Green 8. Agnatius Paasi 9. Issac Luke 10. Leeson Ah Mau 11. Adam Blair 12. Isaiah Papalii 13. Jazz Tevaga
Interchange: 14. Lachlan Burr 15. Sam Lisone 16. Bunty Afoa 17.Chanel Harris-Tavita 18. Adam Pompey 20. Adam Keighran 21. Ligi Sao 23. Chris Satae
Manu Ma’u vs Adam Blair
The Tongan Terminator turned in what was arguably his most disappointing performance in Eels colours in last week’s loss to the Sea Eagles.
Missed tackles, poor defensive reads and pressured passes are not normally the domain of the ultra-consistent Ma’u, but that’s exactly what we witnessed at Brookie.
Manu Ma’u
For confidence, let’s remember that he averages around 120 running metres per game, with 2 tackle breaks thrown in for good measure. His runs are characterised by a combination of power and a surprising step – ask the Raiders defence to describe what that’s like.
After stints in Melbourne, the Wests Tigers and Brisbane, proud Maori Adam Blair finds himself playing out the final years of his career at home in Auckland. Now in his 14th season of NRL football, the 308 game veteran has had a mixed 2019.
His average of 63.7 running metres per game is hardly going to set any NRL records. You can also expect him to give up at least one penalty per game.
How do you quantify the leadership that he brings to this Warriors pack? We can probably assess that after full time and then again at the end of the season.
And The Winner Is?
Two weeks ago, the Eels executed a composed demolition of the Tigers. Though the try tally finished equal, it was a totally professional performance from Parramatta.
One week later, the first set of the Manly clash was all that was needed to realise that the team hadn’t fronted.
We can gloss over the Eels shortfalls and praise their attack, and the climb from the 2018 cellar. But in doing so, we’d be ignoring an attitude that manifests in a lack of intensity and a lack of commitment to defence.
Statistics aren’t needed for what we see in Eels performances. But the numbers do add the exclamation point. The Eels sit 15th for missed tackles and 16th for ineffective tackles. That’s bottom of the table stuff.
The players have to get in front of the ball carriers in defence. If you aren’t willing to do that you risk the attack gaining the ascendancy and getting a roll on in the sets.
In contrast, the Warriors sit 7th for missed tackles, averaging around five less missed tackles per match than the Eels.
In attack, the Warriors and Eels produce very similar stats in both run metres and offloads, but Kiwi side have dramatically improved their discipline when carrying the footy. The previously maligned helter-skelter merchants are now competition leaders in producing the fewest incomplete sets. This is likely the product of Blake Green’s composure in the halves.
The Warriors demonstrated their ability to grind out a win in defeating the Sharks. The Eels can play composed footy, as evidenced in their defeat of the Tigers.
Will it be a tight contest?
I expect the Eels to win, but I also fear that they will leak points.
Eels 38 Warriors 24
Man of the Match – Mitch Moses
Eels forever!
Sixties
Hope we are up for the Warriors, we lost our 2 point safety buffer last week. Agree, putting bodies in front of ball carriers and giving Mahoney more support are key. Looking forward to seeing how Waka, Kaufusi and Alvaro go.
When we don’t aim up in defence, it’s like watching touch footy. Tom Turbo has a field day last week.
Line speed, line speed, line speed. For the love of god please move up and make good contact. Please Please Please.
I fail to see why Mannah is still not in this team. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.
It was missing from the first set last week Anon. That must be remedied.
According to the Eels webb site and team update, Hoffman is out and Parry comes in, in his place
Correct Colin. Trained well.
I am hoping that Parry has a good game, and with Blake inside him should be a help and encouragement as well. Going to be a tough match & don’t see a lot in it.
The Warriors will stay in the contest Colin.
Great to see a running 5/8 at Parra again. Let Dylan back himself and prosper. Our attack needs to fire because our insipid defence won’t allow us be confident in beating anybody.
We are massive Dylan Brown fans at TCT, having watched him throughout junior reps and lower grades. He’s got bigger, but to me he’s the same young bloke as he’s always been.
Dylan Brown was in the clear last weekend players inside n outside of him n he didn’t pass. 6 point’s gone begging
Dylan did the right thing in not passing to either option, they were both shadowed by the defence. Dylan has innate football nous sadly you don’t.
100% Seth. I had the same opinion and I also spoke to him about it yesterday. He said the options were covered so he held it. Got the penalty from the quick play the ball then scored in that set off Brown’s pass.
Dylan did the right thing as both options were shadowed by the defence. Dylan shows innate football nous, sadly you don’t.
You don’t know me to say I don’t but if that helps you sleep easy at night I’m happy for you
Actually I sleep poorly, you were the one that said six points went begging, what are you suggesting, that he hogged it ?
Yep but let me watch the highlights of the game n I’ll get back to you
Sorry I think the boys will win well. Going by the points we score at Bankwest stadium n the avg points teams score against us. I’m tipping Eels 34 worries 10
Hope so Rev, but I’ll take any win!
Was almost correct with my score worries score a few more then I thought n we came up short. But hey a wins a win I’m happy
I’m expecting a big win by the boy’s today.
Many reasons why.
#1 Bankwest stadium is our fortress.
#2 we score on avg 32ppg
#3 opposed teams avg is 4 points.
#4 the boys middle will be smarting after last week’s game.
With that said I’m expecting a great game from our forward pack.
I was worried about Hoffman but Brad Arthur did the right thing in bringing in Parry. His faster taller n bigger weight wise so can take the ball up like Ferguson does.
P’s on Ferguson I have the inside scoop that Ferguson left hospital yesterday morning. Let’s say I have friends who works in the hospital. They also inform me that he will play this yr there not sure what rds they said if he recovers fast then his in by rds 23\24
#eels4life#,
Rev, while I believe we will win, I don’t think it will be by a big margin, warriors have strong players across the park, as such our defence needs to be at least 90% better than last week. To rely on home ground/fortress mentality is a false sense of security, as they need more focus in every area of their game, a mind set that believes because we win there is a false mind set.
Re the non DB pass, I also believed the same thing however several have mentioned the aspect that Guth on one side had over run DB and the player on the other side was covered by the defence.
I’ll watch the reply I have it on tele
He’ll play again – soon.
Our defence is rubbish don’t deserve to win don’t deserve to be in finals. Parrathetic
Imagine if we make the 8 and play the Storm with that defence. No one at our club is prepared to take ownership of the problem.Until someone does we will be also rans
I’m happy to be in the conversation
Same mate.
Enjoy the win mate. Nobody is saying we will win the comp. But you have to enjoy winning games.
Fair enough. I’m selfish, I just want to see another premiership before I drop off the twig.
Anonymous, I would guess that you aren’t a true supporter. Having a shot at the defence is one thing. Not being happy with being in finals contention is absurd. The Eels don’t deserve your type of support mate.
Great result, l will definitely take the two points from that gritty come back win. I’ve looked at RTS pass and it was forward and both referee and linesman were beside RTS when he threw it. Although, we did our best to give the game away with silly errors and a 76% completion rate. It was NZ ill discipline that helped cancel our errors out.
Our defence has been poor all year but only
18 missed tackles, is a major improvement in intent and attitude. Credit to the middle. I note Reed was given an early rest in first half instead of 75minute mark. Credit to the coach, as Reed played about 30 minutes of each half which will keep him energized no point giving him an early shower at 70minutes. Even though we let in 4 tries I still think our defence won this game. We showed if we hold the middle our points will come. The Luke try was soft but all other NZ tries were wrong defensive reads out wide.
If we can defend with less than 20 missed tackles per game we can win our remaining games. Strong defence will get us Top 4. If we get a home semi we will go deep into September and maybe just maybe October. But first an away win next week.