The Cumberland Throw

Stat Attack Preview – Round 1, 2018: Eels vs Panthers

EELS vs PANTHERS

SUNDAY, 11 MARCH 2018 – PANTHERS STADIUM

Wow how time flies! Was it really all the way back in September when we were walking out of ANZ after the Cowboys semi final loss and thinking “bring on 2018”?

Well, 2018 is here and round 1 matches are being discussed, team lists are being analysed and stats blokes like yours truly are trying to dig into the numbers to help guide tips, or simply to put minds at ease about why a win is likely.

Of course, with only trial form on the board, and roster changes across the clubs, statistical predictions for the opening round have a bit more of an unknown factor. The historical analysis cannot take recent form into account.

But rugby league has a funny habit of turning to history as the best guide to match winners when certain clubs meet. Back in the late 70s and early 80s, the Eels could barely buy a win at Lidcombe Oval against the Magpies. And what about the Dragons long run of losses against the Raiders in Canberra? The Red V did not win a single game in Canberra from 2000 to 2013! It mattered little about personnel, form or ladder position.

Now, as we look into Parra’s opening round clash with Penrith, we have to factor in traditional rivalry, that intangible that seems to fire up certain teams. Panthers players simply do not like the Eels (see Jennings’ well publicised comments). The Eels will always be big brothers to the Riff, so the younger Western Sydney siblings love nothing better than lowering those Blue and Gold colours.

With only days away to kick off, and bearing all the perils of round 1 analysis, here’s a quick overview of the history between the two clubs:

Quick Facts

  • Head to Head – Parramatta and Penrith have played each other 94 times.
  • Eels have a 59.6% win ratio with a 56 to 37 win record over the Panthers.
  • Parramatta and Penrith have played each other 46 times at Penrith.
  • Eels hold a slender 23 to 22 win record.
  • Last 10 games at this venue sees 5 wins a piece.
  • Last game between the Eels and Panthers was Round 8, 2017 @ ANZ with the Eels running out 6 point winners 18 – 12.
  • Last game at Panthers Stadium between the Eels and Panthers was Round 19, 2016 which saw the Panthers win 22 – 18.

After a superb preseason from the Eels (thanks to Sixties for his off season reporting) the Eels are looking very slick – especially if the trial vs the Knights is any indicator.

With great depth at the club this season, finally all Parramatta fans are very confident about the likelihood of a successful year.

This weekend’s match will provide a much better view of how the season ahead will look. Obviously you don’t win a title in March, but you do want to have a good start to the year and throw down the challenge immediately to the top contenders.

Penrith will be a very solid team and one to watch out for. They have had a few bumps and bruises during the off season and were very poor against a second string Bulldogs out fit in their last trial. So they will be looking to make amends after that poor performance.

Can we smell an ambush? Round 1 against a team copping some early criticism is probably not the ideal scenario, but if you have genuine ambitions to be a contender, then dealing with fired up teams comes with the territory.

The Eels will not be looking to take this game lightly and will want to show a strong 80 min performance. The Eels last 20 minutes of matches in season 2017 was statistically quite poor. So no doubt Brad Arthur will want to see an improvement there right away.

So Blue and Gold Army, get out to Panthers Stadium this Sunday to cheer the boys home.

Yours in Blue and Gold,

Colmac

 

https://i0.wp.com/thecumberlandthrow.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Champion-Data.png?resize=194%2C79

Stats courtesy of Champion Data.

All these stats and more can be viewed on our match centre at http://mc.championdata.com/nrl/ including live game stats.

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14 thoughts on “Stat Attack Preview – Round 1, 2018: Eels vs Panthers

  1. Colin Hussey

    With all the so called turmoil with the Panthers up to this point losing several players to the Sharks and Titans, rumours of dissent and conflicts with the coach and the head of the club, it would be easy to dismiss Penrith and see a big win for the eels.

    As shown there is not really a great gap between the two clubs, and there is as much, if not more rivalry between the on field participants as there is the off field at Penrith. Thing is that the Eels have been in that boat as well but after a couple of settling years and last year being quite settled to be sure (the Irish in me) the eels should be seen as the favourites for a win.

    Thing is that over the years Penrith teams have shown they have a big ability to shock their opponents, so could very well cause an upset and win. Over the years though I can remember that the eels seemed to win a couple more at Penrith with the opposite happening when played at Cumberland/Pirtek, this Sunday? Anything could happen.

    I’m tipping the eels to win, but gee not sure how much though. They will need to bring every bit of their trial game enthusiasm to the game and not switch off one minute.

    1. sixties

      It’s important that there is no attention paid to the rumours coming out of Penrith Col. As you said, there can be no switch off, because the talent is there in the Panthers and the Eels can’t allow them to play with confidence.

  2. Milo

    Col and ColMac i agree with this; there will be an ambush of some type; will it be for 80 mins? or only 20? I do not think we will have this in the bag as some may think; i predict a 2 point win.
    Colmac, i walked out of Homebush last September with my lady and the trip home to the coast was quiet, long and disappointing. I was apparently cranky for a week…..I am over it now though. Unlike the 2009 and 2001 loss.

  3. paul taylor

    I think we need to play tough and direct. No touch footy with them. They have weaknesses and I am sure we will trouble Moloney all day. His defence can be suspect and he gives up some penalties most games. Play direct and fast and we will nail them.

    1. Milo

      I agree with that Squiz; defence and discipline is a key. I also think some ball playing two / three passes wide to move their props around will help. Our backs should cancel theirs; so our fwds have to win the middle 1/3 of field.

  4. The rev aka Snedden

    Sixties I’m tipping a different side to the one that is named (eels) why I don’t know I’m thinking Kenny will come in the side somewhere.

    I’m tipping our boys to win n win well. Why you ask … well I think our spine have had a fair bit of time together n know how we operate and will run off our forward momentum there for create space for the backs.

    The panthers spines is new with jimmy at 5/8 playing his 1st game with cleary n there fullback is new playing with jimmy same goes for Peter Wallace. There spine will need time to gel. I also think Peter Wallace’s service from DH is poor.

    We’re as with king he gives the halfs a 3rd option at general kicking n that is we’re I think we will target. Put pressure on there DH n there forwards will loose there way.

    We also have a much more potent back line even with out gutherson. I like what I saw in the trial from Hoffman he looks like he might be in for a big year.

    #Eels4life#

  5. Rocket

    James Maloney is vulnerable with his defence but the Panthers will have minders for him.
    He is capable of ripping defences to bits. His won two premierships with different teams and lost a grand final with the Warriors. He has improved every team his been in. We can’t take the Panthers lightly.

    1. sixties

      Rev, I think we have that potential to win handsomely, but like Rocket, I’m wary of the BBQ specialist – Maloney.
      He just brings out the best in his teams. I won’t be taking anything for granted.

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