After coming so close to upsetting premiership favourites, the Melbourne Storm, our Parramatta boys head into sudden death footy against finals surprise packets, the North Queensland Cowboys, at ANZ Stadium this Saturday night.

Their spirited win against defending premiers, the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks, shocked many – showing incredible defensive courage; taking their opportunities in attack when they presented themselves and in doing so have set up an unlikely finals show down with the mighty blue and gold.

With nothing to fear, there’s no doubt the Cowboys will throw caution into the wind in their second sudden death match in a row, backing themselves to defensively scramble their way to another victory. However, they’ll have to do so against a more potent attacking side in our Parramatta Eels.

The worst thing our boys can do is be suckered into playing the Cowboys game. The Sharks took the bait; hook line and sinker – and that’s why they will now watch the rest of the finals series from their lounge rooms, instead of challenging for back-to-back titles – falling victim to the emotion of refereeing decisions and trying to finesse their way past the Cowboys instead of matching them play-for-play.

If you ask me, the Sharks-Cowboys game completely reflected the problems that exist between the mental disparity of the two State of Origin teams at present. You have the Sharks, a team full of NSW representative players, turn up against a weakened Cowboys team (still brimming with plenty of QLD representative players) expecting to win, establishing an early lead, and then try to finesse their way to victory with plays that weren’t on; halves that failed to be ruthless and take control when it was required; forwards who took the selfish option; players trying to play the referee instead of to their systems and structures (and it backfired on them big time); and an overly emotional team reacting to referee decisions in the heat of the moment instead of putting it to one side, and working towards the next play and re-gaining momentum.

Middle men: The Eels pack will have to go toe-to-toe with the Cowboys hulking forwards

Conversely you had a Cowboys team that was completely committed to its defence (only conceding questionable tries); that stuck to the strengths it knew it had at its disposal on the day; play with a composed and controlled temperament; and that waited, earned and took its opportunities when they presented themselves.

For Origin fans, this is a very familiar narrative – and it proves why if you’re a NSW supporter why, as Andrew Johns so delicately put it, “NSW still don’t get it”

This is not a mentality our boys can get caught up in this week. The emotional charge of sudden death footy as the ability to bowl over even the most measured and poised players in the game, so it’s something we must be weary of, and it’s something we HAVE to put to one side if something doesn’t go our way.

The easiest way to ensure this is to continue to play our brand of footy and what’s worked so successfully for us so far this year. You do this by getting a couple of first scores and playing controlled football throughout the rest of the contest. Force the Cowboys into playing catch up footy and force them into error. The want a dog-fight, but we have to take it off the cards – and if you analyse the Cowboys vulnerabilities throughout the year, there are a few ways in which we can do it.

Breaking down the North Queensland Cowboys defence:

• Targeting the Cowboys Wingers: Something the Cowboys wingers have been guilty of all year has been unnecessarily rushing up in defence and being caught in no-man’s land. Kyle Feldt in particular has made some very poor decisions at crucial times this year and as we speak, Antonio Winterstein is playing nowhere near full strength. Pressuring these guys into split second decision making, by creating pressure on their inside men could provide dividends, particularly if we look to play the centre, as opposed to the winger. One set play in our arsenal that I think would be particular effective inside the Cowboys 20 is our open side play to the left edge that shifts the ball with decoy runners in motion running back against the grain, passing the ball back to the fullback for a 2-on-1 for Semi. This and any variation of this play (e.g. hitting a different runner or with a hit-and-spin) is something we can definitely use against a committed Cowboys line that will be looking to rush up and shut us down quickly. Check out these highlights where the Cowboys wingers have been found wanting. The Broncos here and here; Titans here and here; Tigers here and here; Dragons here and here; Knights here; Sharks here; Roosters here; and Storm here.

• Isolating the Cowboys second-rowers: One recurring theme that seems to present itself quite often when analysing the Cowboys video, is just how regularly their second-rowers concede points when isolated on the try-line. Gavin Cooper, Ethan Lowe and Coen Hess have all been equally as guilty as each other when faced with an angle runner inside their own 20 metre zone. This bodes incredibly well for the likes of Manu Ma’u, Tepai Moeroa and Kenny Edwards who have had success themselves when utilising this strategy (click on their names to view). While the finals will always result in players upping the ante defensively, no one is immune to fatigue, and any quick play-the-balls in the Cowboys red zone should be followed up by our halves straightening the attack looking to hit our edge forwards on the unders line as they step off their outside foot. As the following teams have shown, there’s success to be had there. Raiders here and here; Manly here; Titans here and here; Rabbitohs here; Tigers here, here, here and here; Dragons here; Eels here, here and here; Storm here, here and here; Panthers here, here, here and here; Warriors here; Roosters here and here; Sharks here; and Broncos here.

Target the edges: Kenny Edwards could be the man to create some damage on the fringes

• Kicking in behind the outside backs: The Cowboys don’t possess the quickest outside backs across 10-20 metres, and their turn and chase at times can leave something to be desired. A well placed Moses or Norman grubber has the potential to come up trumps (or at least produce a repeated set) if well executed. The ideal space exists in-behind Kane Linnett, who as a bigger man with knee problems, doesn’t enjoy the same acceleration off the mark he did when he first came into grade. The turn and chase of Kyle Feldt is pot luck (and he’s fallen over many times while attempting to do as such this year), while Antonio Winterstein is struggling to do anything that requires him to move outside of running a linear line. There’ll be opportunity for points off the boot this week, as the tape here shows. The Raiders here; Broncos here, here and here; Manly here; Raiders here, Storm here and here, Panthers here; and Sharks here.

• Shifting the ball back up the middle after playing the edges: A tiring and retreating Cowboys middle has leaked a plethora of linebreaks and tries this year. While powerful, they are no longer agile when under fatigue. Given the way our boys like to play their footy, it’s natural that this will be a tactic of ours. However, upon more closely inspecting the tape, there is a lot of opportunity for those middle forwards of ours with leg speed, hitting the line with support players to make some serious inroads. Players like Nathan Brown, Suaia Matagi and Tim Mannah could do some damage if we’re tactful in the way we go about. Having players like Moses and Will Smith in support will make us even more effective. In fact, we scored a try against the Cowboys in Townsville earlier this year doing this very thing! Many other teams have enjoyed success playing back up the Cowboys guts as well. Check out Manly here; Titans here and here; Tigers here and here; Dragons here; Eels here; Sharks here, here and here; Storm here; Raiders here and here; Rabbitohs here; Panthers here and here.

Fast men running the unders: Speedsters like Michael Jennings running back against the grain have found success against the Cowboys in the past

• Hitting the inside shoulders of the halves and centres: You can’t fault the bravery of the Cowboys defensive line last week, they were enormous and even bi-partisan supporters would have been impressed by their resilience. However, the Sharks lack of composure prevented them from being able to utilise their damaging backrowers and centres against the inside shoulders of the Cowboys halves and centres. This becomes a particularly pertinent point with the potential return of Justin O’Neill. There will be a man who hasn’t played in five weeks having to test out a damaged elbow. Alternatively, there’s Javid Bowen, who has been suspect in defence whenever lining up one man in, Te Maire Martin, who has a busted shoulder and Michael Morgan who does have a shirt grab in him from time-to-time. Much like hitting the Cowboys backrowers on the goal line, targeting these men with the unders line with bodies in motion will not only isolate them one-on-one, but it will provide us with the opportunity to run over the top of them. How direct we play will be key to this, and we must ensure not to work our build up plays too wide of the centre of the field. Our settlers must be played adjacent to the goal posts before going open side, this will help us create the necessary width needed to play nice direct attacking footy and isolate their halves and centres, without trying to shift the ball from one sideline to the other. As other teams have shown, points are on offer if you can execute this style of direct footy. Look at the Dragons here; Eels here; Sharks here and here; Storm here and here; Warriors here and here.

There are a few factors that will contribute to a potential win this Saturday night, but none more so than our composure. The Sharks lacked it, and it’s what ultimately cost them. Our ability to complete highly and control the tempo of the game is what will determine this one. Execute this properly, and we will find ourselves progressing to a preliminary final showdown against the Roosters, fail to do this, and we’ll be packing our bags quicker than you can say 2005.

The Cowboys are ripe for the picking for a team that’s willing to pick them apart. The absence of Matt Scott and Jonathan Thurston has been massive for them this year, and there have been times where they have looked lethargic and bereft of ideas without them. The Sharks game would have been very physically tolling, going beyond regulation time and requiring large output from their middle men, followed by a return flight to Townsville, would have left the North Queensland boys very fatigued. Having to back up an effort like the one against the Sharks would take a monumental effort, and if a team is willing to play controlled possession focused rugby league against them, you’d imagine this would catch up with them in the back half of the game. However, that is a big if, and requires our boys to execute similarly to the way they did against the Storm – and keep the likes of Taumololo, Hess, Granville and Morgan from being able to do their thing.

Shutdown the town: Limiting Jason Taumololo is key to an Eels victory

Our mighty Eels will have to be out in full force this week to bring this one home – there’s no easy wins in semi-final football – and that means both the ones taking the field, as it does mean the ones viewing from the sideline. If ever there’s a time to turn up to a match Eels fans, it’s this weekend.

Straddle in Blue and Gold Army, if we’re prepared to win (and we’re going to have to be to get the win), our finals ride will continue, but we need soldiers at every station. Bring on the weekend – YEEEEEE HAAAAAA!

Clint

All images courtesy of the Parramatta Eels, NRL.com & Getty Images.

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