The Cumberland Throw

Stat Attack Preview – Round 25: Eels vs Broncos

7.50pm, Thursday, 24th August 2017

Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, QLD


This match has a definite Semi Finals feel to it. The Eels will look to show why they are worthy semi-finalists and keep their Top 4 dreams alive. The Broncos are also looking to cement their spot in the Top 4 after a scratchy performance against the Dragons last week.

These two teams played one of the games of the season just a few weeks ago and I really can’t see this clash being any different. This is a must watch encounter, no matter which team you support.

Let’s look at the numbers between these two sides.


Last 10 Games

Season Round Date Eels Broncos Venue name Result
2017 21 28-Jul-2017 28 14 ANZ Stadium Eels win by 14 points
2016 23 12-Aug-2016 16 38 Suncorp Stadium Broncos win by 22 points
2016 1 03-Mar-2016 4 17 Pirtek Stadium Broncos win by 13 points
2015 8 25-Apr-2015 16 28 Suncorp Stadium Broncos win by 12 points
2014 5 04-Apr-2014 25 18 Suncorp Stadium Eels win by 7 points
2013 23 16-Aug-2013 12 22 Suncorp Stadium Broncos win by 10 points
2013 9 11-May-2013 19 18 Pirtek Stadium Eels win by 1 point
2012 21 30-Jul-2012 42 22 Suncorp Stadium Eels win by 20 points
2012 1 02-Mar-2012 6 18 Pirtek Stadium Broncos win by 12 points
2011 17 01-Jul-2011 12 16 Pirtek Stadium Broncos win by 4 points


Parramatta has a reasonable record against a team which has been a mainstay of finals football. The last 10 games sees the Broncos just ahead with 6 wins to Parra’s 4.


Score Aggregate

Eels – 180

Broncos – 211

Score Average

Eels – 18

Broncos – 21


Quick Facts

  • The Eels and Broncos have played each other 51 times.
  • Broncos have a 31 – 20 win majority over the Eels.
  • At Suncorp, they have played each other 17 times with the Broncos leading 11 wins to 6.
  • The Eels at Suncorp have played there 21 times for a 6 wins to 15 losses.
  • The Eels past 10 appearances at Suncorp have seen them win 4 of those 10 games.
  • 2017 – Parra sit in 5th spot with 14 wins and 8 losses. The Eels score 19.2 points p/g and concede 18.5 points p/g.
  • 2017 – Brisbane are currently 2nd with 15 wins and 7 losses. They score at 24.7 points p/g and let in 16.9 points p/g.


By Quarters (And Golden Point)

0 – 20 20 – 40 40 – 60 60 – 80 GP
Eels 12 12 9 6 1
Broncos 10 13 12 13 0

Both teams start well and the first half will be key. Even though the Eels pegged back the Broncos after they come out of the blocks hard last start, the Eels will not want to have that repeated.

With showers expected and a mild night in Brisbane come kick off, handling is going to be paramount and ball shifting could be down to a minimum. Last game went end to end, side to side. With the likely greasy conditions, it will be up to the forwards to lay good ground work up the middle before using the ball on the edges. Points could be at a premium in this game.



*average per game (Ranking)

Eels Broncos
Runs 154 (10th) 161 (2nd)
Run Metres 1464 (9th) 1583 (2nd)
Line Breaks 4.2 (8th) 4.3 (5th)
Offloads 9.2 (12th) 10.9 (4th)
Tackle Breaks 21.6 (12th) 27.6 (4th)
Possession % 48.9 (15th) 50.8 (7th)
Complete Sets 26.2 (12th) 27.7 (4th)


*average per game (Ranking)

Eels Broncos
Tackles 327 (5th) 312 (9th)
Missed Tackles 24.3 (7th) 25.0 (8th)
Ineffective Tackles 15.7 (12th) 14.5 (2nd)


*average per game (Ranking)

Eels Broncos
Errors 10.6 (13th) 9.6 (3rd)
Penalties Conceded 6.8 (12th) 5.7 (3rd)
Incomplete Sets 8.8 (9th) 8.3 (4th)

The statistics alone would be indicative of a comfortable Broncos win. However, these numbers weren’t very different just on a month ago when the Eels overpowered Brisbane. What we can take from this data is that going to Suncorp and beating the Broncos is a difficult task.

Parramatta need to be smart and keep the errors and discipline in check. You don’t want to give Brisbane cheap metres and extra sets for them to attack.

Our fringe defenders in Moeroa and Edwards need to be fully focused as the Broncos centres in Moga and Roberts can inflict big damage on both sides. Moga rates highly with run metres (7th at 3194m), whilst Roberts can add to his line break tally. He and Milford work well together on that right side. Roberts has 14 line breaks (10th ranked) many courtesy of a Milford offload. Milford sits 10th in offloads with 37. Also in the Top 10 offloads list is Adam Blair with 41. So our middle defenders need to wrap that ball up when going in for tackles.

This should be a great game of rugby league and I can see it going down to the wire. Reading into the Eels press this week, it seems that they are feeling confident and very much up for this match. This puts a lot of confidence in this Blue and Gold Army member for an Eels win.

Yours in Blue and Gold


Stats courtesy of Champion Data. All these stats and more can be viewed on our match centre at including live game stats.

Champion Data

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7 thoughts on “Stat Attack Preview – Round 25: Eels vs Broncos

  1. Rowdy

    G’day Colmac, thanks for the data mate, it makes for interesting analysis of the hypotheticals.

    I had given much thought to how we might play this game and who we might pick in our top 17 to accomplish the task? Your statistics give some weight to my own assessment on how to beat the Broncos up at Suncorp tonight. BA knows how to win up there (2014) and how to ambush. So here goes:

    I reckon we’ll need to blunt Brisbane’s edges from the getgo. If we start with Big Frank on the right edge it would compliment having moved Big Tep to the left, both aggressive in D.
    I’d also start with Vave up front with either Mannah or Alvarro because we need to start with aggression and go forward in the middle to match Sims and their 2 bullies, Blair and Blinky Bill the blind foot stomper.

    I wouldn’t waste the energy Kenny Edwards brings off the bench by exposing him to an early onslaught starting him either. If it aint broke don’t fix it! Gowie and Hoff drop off my bench. That leaves Matagi, Peni and whoever we rotate out of the starting side for Vave.

    In conclusion, I would get a ferocious 15 – 18 minutes out of Vave and Big Frank, just pumelling their forwards before we repeat that again with our rotation. That’s the best way to dull their halves and give ours the greatest opportunity to dictate play.

    1. sixties

      Cracking response Rowdy. I reckon your tactics could be on the mark, though I’m not sure if it will be with the personnel. I’d be starting Kenny to defend next to Mitch Moses if Tep is moved to the left. But bashing their halves and edges would be a good start.

  2. jonboy

    Thanks Colmac.

    Can I ask please about the “By Quarters” stat and what the numbers represent? Is it average points scored or periods won / lost etc?

    1. Colmac

      Yes jonboy it is a win loss scenerio. Think of it as the scores revert back to nil all every quater. Hope that helps.

  3. John Eel

    Given the great game that our forwards had in the last encounter I thought Milford was very quiet in the previous match. Lets hope we can do the same again.

    They are not a big pack the Broncos but they work hard and aggressive.

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