20TH May 2017
ANZ Stadium, Homebush, NSW
After both teams came out of Round 10 with their egos severely dented, you could bet that pride will be on the line as much as the two premiership points. Undoubtedly, this clash will be crucial for each side as we head into the State of Origin period.
For one player, this week marks a new dawn in his young career. No doubt all eyes will be on Mitchell Moses as he finally dons the Blue and Gold for the first time. It’s probably unfair and unrealistic, but many would be expecting nothing less than a Man of the Match performance from the Eels 2018 key signing – I mean 2017 key signing.
So let’s delve into the history of these two teams.
| Season | Round | Date | Eels | Raiders | Venue name | Result |
| 2017 | 5 | 1-Apr-2017 | 18 | 30 | GIO Stadium | Raiders win by 12 points |
| 2016 | 24 | 21-Aug-2016 | 18 | 28 | GIO Stadium | Raiders win by 10 points |
| 2016 | 6 | 09-Apr-2016 | 36 | 6 | Pirtek Stadium | Eels win by 30 points |
| 2015 | 26 | 06-Sep-2015 | 24 | 28 | Pirtek Stadium | Raiders win by 4 points |
| 2014 | 26 | 06-Sep-2014 | 20 | 33 | GIO Stadium | Raiders win by 13 points |
| 2014 | 22 | 09-Aug-2014 | 18 | 10 | TIO Stadium | Eels win by 8 points |
| 2013 | 19 | 20-Jul-2013 | 0 | 14 | GIO Stadium | Raiders win by 14 points |
| 2012 | 10 | 13-May-2012 | 34 | 40 | GIO Stadium | Raiders win by 8 points |
| 2011 | 16 | 25-Jun-2011 | 12 | 25 | GIO Stadium | Raiders win by 13 points |
| 2010 | 5 | 12-Apr-2010 | 14 | 24 | Pirtek Stadium | Raiders win by 10 points |
The Raiders absolutely dominate the recent history with 8 wins to Parramatta’s 2. This gives us a score aggregate of Eels 192 – Raiders 238 which translates to a match average of Raiders 24 – Eels 19
Across their total history, Parramatta has played Canberra a total of 54 times with the Raiders slightly ahead with a 28-26 win loss record.
This will be the first time Parramatta has played Canberra at ANZ Stadium. Parramatta’s history at ANZ now stands at played 64, Won 28, Lost 35. As for the Raiders, they have played 21 times at ANZ with a 12 – 9 win loss record.
In 2017, Eels have a 5 – 5 win loss, Canberra 4 and 6. Points For average has the Eels 18.2 and Raiders 23. Points Against average sees Parra 21.4, Canberra 19.3
Not to dwell on this stat again, but the final 20 mins is again very crucial. Parramatta has only won once in this final time period, whereas the Raiders have won 6 times. The Raiders are very strong finishers.
Attacking Numbers:
*Average per game (Ranking)
| Parramatta | Canberra | |
| Runs | 154 (8th) | 145 (14th) |
| Run Metres | 1418 (13th) | 1418 (14th) |
| Offloads | 9.8 (9th) | 9.6 (10th) |
| Line Breaks | 3.4 (13th) | 3.9 (7th) |
| Possession % | 49.5 (13th) | 49.9 (10th) |
| Complete Sets | 24.9 (15th) | 25.8 (11th) |
Defensive Numbers:
*Average per game (Ranking)
| Parramatta | Canberra | |
| Tackles | 318 (8th) | 289 (15th) |
| Missed Tackles | 23.5 (7th) | 23.9 (10th) |
Discipline Numbers:
*Average per game (Ranking)
| Parramatta | Canberra | |
| Errors | 11.3 (13th) | 10.8 (9th) |
| Penalties Conceded | 6.8 (13th) | 6.3 (7th) |
| Incomplete Sets | 9.4 (13th) | 9.4 (12th) |
The statistics in these tables show that both teams aren’t really setting the competition on fire. Most of these numbers also show that both teams are very close in game play.
The Eels will have to nullify the involvement of Jordan Rapana. Rapana is high in the rankings in a lot of stats. His runs, run metres and line breaks are all in the Top 10 in the comp, but he is a confidence player. He comes in second (18) with most errors in the competition. Get him with a few errors early and his impact will be minimal and his confidence down. This is where the Eels can hold off the Raiders go forward, as its usually on the back of Rapana’s runs.
I’m looking forward to this game as it provides the Eels with the opportunity to turn around a horrid performance against the Roosters and get back to their winning ways. And no doubt the Blue and Gold faithful will enjoy a victory over one R. Stuart.
Colmac
Champion Data
Stats courtesy of Champion Data. All these stats and more can be viewed on our match centre at http://mc.championdata.com/nrl/ including live game stats.
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The key figures to me are
Line breaks, the eels are a bit in front but may not be capitalising on them
Possesion, not a lot between them but eels worse.
Completion sets, nothing much between the two teams but not a good look for the eels.
Tackles, the eels are better there but still too many points are scored against us.
Missed tackles, again not much between the two teams but the team that can miss less has more chance to win.
The biggest concern though is found in the last three areas, and they are simply not good enough for a team that wants to make the finals and go further, it simply means they are not concentrating and perhaps that 2nd half problem is greater than we see.
Having watched the Sharks and Bronco’s win their games, the tackling especially by the Broncs was constant and fearless, even when a player submitted the broncs still were pushing the limits, but they did it across the board, even when attacking they were basically defending their line, and that is where the eels have to go.
That said, I think the eels can win tonight but, tight wet weather/heavy ground will take its toll.