The last few years have hardly been a fun trip to Moore Park for the Blue & Gold Army, and that trend continued last Sunday afternoon when our boys went down to a very energetic and purposeful Roosters side 48-10.

Our forwards failed to establish any dominance, (apart from perhaps a 5-10 minute period where we worked ourselves back into the game culminating in Clint Gutherson scoring) and the Roosters big men in Napa, Warea-Hargreaves & Taukeiaho rolled us for metres up the middle third, which the likes of Mitchell Pearce and his outside men capitalized on with great timing and precision.

To make matters worse we lost our playmaker in Corey Norman halfway through the game for the next 4-6 weeks, and the momentum that had been slowly building across our three-game winning streak had all but vanished.

With a game against another monster pack in the Raiders approaching, without any playmaker or noted kicker in the side, it was looking like dire straits for Eels fans on Sunday evening…..until that rumbling that had been building in the Parramatta river started tremor more aggressively….

And then it happened. Like sands through the hourglass, the soap opera that has been the mid-season transfer of Mitchell Moses from the Wests Tigers was finally green lit. His arrival placating a loss of almost biblical proportions on Sunday afternoon and allows us to head into our Corey-less period with a smidge more optimism.

Call it an act of God, or just plain luck, but we have finally got our man Eels fans, and he arrived at Blue & Gold HQ armed with a tablet to review our set plays and just one commandment from Brad Arthur: “Thou shall lead the boys around the park”

All Smiles: The Eels camp were happy Mitchell Moses arrived this week, in lieu of Corey Norman’s injury

And with those prophetic instructions, so leads us to the second-coming of the Canberra Raiders in season 2017.

In recent years, this is a side we have struggled against. Their bigger forward pack has rolled us through the middle third with ease and points have come in waves every time we look like we’ve worked ourselves into the competition. In short – we don’t like playing the green machine.

On the back of our loss to the Roosters, I can imagine most Eels fans must be feeling a bit down, particularly given our recent record against Ricky Stuart’s men.

So just how the hell can we jag a win this weekend?

Believe it or not Eels fans, it’s actually very attainable, so long as we’re willing to play smart.

Firstly, the Raiders are not in good form.

They can deny it all they like, they can act as though there’s some inconsistencies and chinks in their game that they’re just trying to work through, but they are currently out of form. Their start to the season suggests that, the patchy attacking play suggests that and some of the losses they’ve had suggest that.

Secondly, all is not well in Canberra land. I won’t use my article as a platform to spread rumours, but I can tell you Eels fans, that if the Raiders were based in the spotlight of Sydney, they’d be facing some of the same media speculation the Tigers have experienced in recent weeks – and these pressures are building underneath the surface. Now generally one of two things happen when this takes places. The team puts the dramas aside and comes out, puts on a comprehensive display and all is well again – OR – they continue to produce flat performances and lose to sides they’re expected to beat. Penrith is an example of a team who have gone through this recently, and Canberra are currently in the middle of it themselves, especially on the back of their loss to Newcastle.

And thirdly, there is a formula to beating the Raiders, but it comes back to playing smart. Anyone at home know what the formula is? I’ll give you a clue, we utilized it ourselves for most of the second half in our most recent encounter with Canberra. Manly used it in their victory in the nation’s capital too. It’s called “possession starvation”.

So what does that mean for us? Now is the time to take advantage of the Raiders and the best way to do it is with early points and controlling the flow of possession with an astute kicking game.

Forward Battle: The Eels big men will have to be diligent in their attacking approach to wear out the Raiders this evening

The acquisition of Moses allows us the opportunity to do this, but not before we have to manage the Raiders main threats beforehand.

Let’s have a look at the danger men for the green machine this weekend:

Nick Cotric & Jarrod Croker: Jarrod Croker has a habit of scoring plenty of points against the Eels. Likely to go down as the highest point scorer in history when his career comes to an end, Croker has scored 6 tries in his last 7 appearances against the Eels. The winger on the Raiders left edge, whoever it has been, has also scored 7 tries in the last 4 appearances as well, and when you’ve got a big bodied outside back like Cotric who can monster his way over opponents, combined with the defensive leaks experienced on the Eels right edge against the Roosters, it poses as one almighty threat. If we limit the ball the Raiders left edge experiences inside our red zone, we give ourselves every opportunity of winning.

Joey Leilua & Jordan Rapana: The dynamic duo of Canberra haven’t been as red-hot in recent weeks as they were to start the year, but this doesn’t make them any less of a threat. Consider the way Rapana ran around Semi in our earlier encounter this year and you know that this is a man who can match (and beat) the best. Both players can look well contained at any given moment, and then that one run or offload opens the floodgates to cheap metres, line breaks and points. Ball-and-all tackles are the way to contain these two. Hit-and-stick boys, hit-and-stick.

Punishing: Jordan Rapana was a threat all game long in the Eels last encounter with the Raiders

Blake Austin & Aidan Sezar: If the Raiders forwards get a roll-on, you better believe these two will punish us. Both are strong carriers of the ball and have the long kicking games to force any team into forever rucking it out of their red zone. If we can rediscover the line speed we displayed against the Panthers and the Cowboys we can put these two under some real pressure, which will only be compounded if we execute the possession starvation strategy.

Junior Paulo & Shannon Boyd: When I talk possession starvation strategy, I do so with these two specifically in mind. They (along with Josh Papalii) are the players who if you force to do a lot of defence, lose their effectiveness in attack. They are the prop forwards for your team if you have 55%+ possession every week, but if you fall below 45%, can become a liability, as they start to fall off tackles and concede cheap metres. This is why the possession starvation strategy is so important for us to come away with the win.

Work Him Over: Increasing the defensive output of the Raiders middle men is key to an Eels victory today

Josh Papalii: I have no doubt this man is excited (so too Junior Paulo) at the prospect of making Mitchell Moses tackle all day long. It is also something he will succeed at, if we do not play smart. I’ll give you a little hint Eels fans, if we keep this man (and Junior Paulo’s) hit count down in single figures, and have Mitchell Moses complete less than 20 tackles (assuming he doesn’t miss any more than 2 tackles) we will be in a position to win the game when it counts. Otherwise, we know what he will do.

Josh Hodgson: The Raiders hooker is a craftsman who can tear any opposition team apart on his day. He’d be disappointed with his teams recent run of form and keen to make amends against a side in which he has enjoyed a lot of success against. If we limit this man’s ability to get his forwards on the front foot and over the advantage line, we go a long way to winning the field position game, which aids us in our possession starvation strategy. It all starts with the number 9 and for the Eels defensive line, it has to stop with him there too.

Limiting Options: Josh Hodgson must be wrapped up ball-and-all, with little room to create

If we adequately manage these threats and starve the Raiders of possession, they are significantly less effective.

It doesn’t mean playing fancy. It doesn’t mean stretching the defence from one side of the ruck to the other. It means completing highly (at or above 90%) and using all six tackles, while kicking for repeat sets or over the sideline, forcing them to re-start the game from a standing start and with no momentum.

Now this sounds pretty straight forward out of the Rugby League coaches handbook, I mean after all if you do this against any side you’re likely going to win. So why is it so important against the Raiders?

Basic physics.

Defending takes more energy out of a player and a team than attacking does. Defending is more taxing on bigger players. The Raiders have bigger players…..you see where I’m going with this?

So we do this, then what?

Opportunities open back up down the middle.

Strategy: If we play smart today, opportunities will open up for the likes of Bevan French against the Raiders big men

The Bevan Frenchs, the Kaysa Pritchards and the Mitchell Moseses – all those players with a bit of acceleration start finding space against the tiring oversized packs. Throw on the Nathan Browns and the Siosaia Vaves who hit the ball with pace over the advantage line. They all start to make a few more metres then what was being afforded to them earlier on in the half. Then look for some quick shifts on the back of those runs – that is when we strike, but it can only be done on the back of completing highly first, and more importantly, on the back of possession starvation.

The acquisition of Moses this week gives us the opportunity to do that, but we have to be willing to play smart. We do that, and our new half will part the Raiders defence.

Forever B&G,

Clint

All images courtesy of the Parramatta Eels, NRL.com and Getty Images

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