Following an impressive, yet somewhat rusty victory over archrivals the Manly-Warringah Sea-Eagles, our Parramatta boys will be travelling south down the M1 to tackle the red V of St. George Illawarra.

The early signs from the Blue & Gold were incredibly encouraging. Plenty of ball movement, forwards getting over the advantage line and popping offloads, and our playmakers linking together either side of the ruck.

No doubt some kinks need to be ironed out, but a foreboding message was sent by the Eels to the rest of the competition last Sunday afternoon at Lottoland – Parramatta are prepared to break and frustrate every little part of your game and if you want to beat us, you will have to earn every point you score, every metre you make and out control us, because we believe we have your measure.

It’s a far cry from Eels teams of years gone by, but one that has slowly developed in the golden west since Brad Arthur first took over the squad in November 2013.

And who would have thought it?

After a surprising round one victory over Western Sydney neighbours and top four favourites, the Penrith Panthers, the Dragons have suddenly turned what looked like a tick in the W column for most of their opponents this year, into genuine, bona fide contests.

The Saints are coming!

But is one performance enough to shut the doubters up? Well that’s what we’re here to dissect ladies and gentlemen. Let’s check out how the Dragons outfit will look this week.

Threat: The Dragons have previously been on the end of some Gutherson magic in 2016

The Opponent

With a team that has forgotten how to score points for the better part of the last 18 months, the Dragons sure looked like they knew their way to the try line last weekend.

After running in seven meat pies to two against the heavily backed Panthers side, St. George turned the heads of many a rugby league expert, and broke the hearts of many a rugby league tipper (was anyone else denied a full-round by the Dragons last weekend?)

Gareth Widdop was brilliant, showing just what he can do when he has a forward pack that makes in roads in front of him.

So too were the aforementioned Dragons forwards. Minus hooker Cameron McInnes, the whole starting pack ran for over 100m each and made in-roads into the Panthers defensive line all day long. It was a far cry from the team that was dominated by the Rabbitohs in the Charity Shield.

But were the Dragons THAT great? Or the Panthers THAT poor.

The stats suggest both. Of the Panthers starting forwards only Issah Yeo ran for over 100m and the team missed a whopping 47 tackles over the 80 minutes. Add to that 7 conceded penalties and a 59% completion rate and it’s fair to say, the Panthers were abysmal. So much so that I don’t think we’ll see another Penrith performance like that this year.

But kudos to the Dragons for taking full advantage. Their forwards stuck it to the Panthers big men and kept coming all day long, and it is this facet of their victory that our Eels must take most notice of.

Paul Vaughan was fantastic on Club debut. Russell Packer continuously got over the advantage line. Tyson Frizell did his usual thing, Joel Thompson had Bryce Cartwright clutching at air and Jack De Bellin played with plenty of confidence.

So just how do we bring a team on cloud nine back down to earth Eels fans? We fight fire with fire.

With this in mind, let’s examine the Dragons threats this weekend and what we’ll need to do to counteract them.

Three’s a crowd: In their last encounter, Bevan French scored a hat-trick against the Dragons. Eels fans will be hoping for the same again this time round

Josh Dugan: You’re not an incumbent Origin & Test player if you lack ability, and while it’s regularly debated whether Josh Dugan is a Fullback or a Centre, there’s no denying he’s a danger man. When he runs the ball with speed he can very easily make the man attempting his tackle look foolish. With the ability to fend and break tackles, Dugan looms as a genuine threat to any shooting defensive line. He’s not going to burn you with raw speed and acceleration, but he will take advantage of gaps and break through into the back field and get his team on the front foot. Negating his ability to do this goes very far in the field position game and starting the Eels defensive sets on the right foot. As he’s not a noted ball player, the key to preventing Dugan doing damage with the ball inside the Dragons attacking 20 is by rushing him with a straight line. He is a Fullback that has struggled to play the overlap and release his outside men, and the ball usually dies with him as a result. You limit his options, you kill the ball from reaching the outside men on the fringes.

Nene MacDonald: This man has scored three tries in three career games against Parramatta and to think he can’t make it four from four is naive. A strong kick returner of the ball, MacDonald’s form last year reminded me of younger Israel Folau. He could run over the top of his more esteemed opponents with brute strength, was difficult to tackle around the legs and cross field kicks to his side of the field were usually good for a four pointer or at least a repeat set. Josh Hoffman will have to be particularly vigilant marking up against this man as he gives away a fair height advantage. Positioning himself to run into catching the high ball could be the difference between the Dragons getting a roll on and the Eels starting a new set with seven tackles up their sleeve.

Aerial Raid: The Dragons will look to Nene MacDonald with cross-field kicks this Sunday

Euan Aitken: The deceptively strong and fleet footed Euan Aitken is a very undervalued player. While his stats may not necessarily read superstar, good things always happen as a by product of his work. Whether it’s generating a quick play-the-ball or creating metres for the men inside and outside of him (or even himself), Aitken invariably proves a handful for opposition defences. Michael Jennings will have to be right on top of his game otherwise some hitups from Euan could have the Dragons attacking against a retreating defensive line with time and space to create try scoring opportunities.

Gareth Widdop: I’ll said it before and I’ll say it again, Gareth Widdop was brilliant last week. He ran and kicked for plenty of metres, scored a double, kicked 7/7 and had two try assists in a near faultless display from the for Melbourne Five-Eighth. With the pending arrival of Ben Hunt in 2018, many were beginning to question this man’s ability to lead the Dragons around the park, but didn’t he extinguish those claims quickly? Widdop is still a very classy player, of that which there is no doubt. He’s been in the unfortunate position of having a defensively capable forward pack the last couple of years, but one that has lacked that real punch up the middle to give him the extra second or two he needs to execute his set plays and to play what is in front of him. No man out Kograh way would be more happy than Widdop now that Paul Vaughan has arrived.  With the Dragons forwards leading the way last week, Widdop was able to generate points around him, proving that if given the time and space, he’ll do the damage. The key to stopping Widdop is in the tried and tested strategy of containing the forwards. Very few halves can out play a dominated forward pack and unfortunately for Saints fans, Widdop doesn’t fall into this mould. If you stop the middle men, you stop Widdop. He has shown when rushed he can be forced into passes over the sideline and misdirected kicks.

Man-handled: Doing a job on Gareth Widdop prevents the point-scoring opportunities of the Dragons

Russell Packer & Paul Vaughan: These two big men in the middle are colossal and their potential is just as big as they are. On their day both can get over the advantage line with ease. Packer in particular has a knack of finding his knees and feet very quickly when taken down and can generate plenty of quick play the balls as a result. Vaughan on the other hand is the tough, aggressive head just reading to cart it up again and again. Both are metre eaters, yet both can go missing when you meet fire with fire. If you keep these two busy defensively, they’re not the types with the aerobic capacity to back up continuous defensive sets with effective runs. Fatigue reduces their effectiveness significantly and wearing them out goes a long way to getting the result. When one considers the way we attacked up Manly’s middle third last Sunday, you can’t help but get excited about the prospect of Matagi, Brown and Mannah relentlessly doing this to the St. George props. Wear them down and we’ll negate the strengths that they bring. Some sneaky second phase play could work a treat here.

Tyson Frizell & Joel Thompson: Both Frizell and Thompson are great fringe runners. They both run great lines and some sleight of hand passing could see either one of these two go bustling over. The work of the men either side of Manu Ma’u and Tepai Moeroa will be crucial to limiting the opportunities that these men have on the edges. Frizell is now an Origin starter and as damaging a runner as they come. Thompson proved with a hat-trick last week that he’s no lemon himself. Maintaining a consistent line with line speed is what limits the damage these two can do. You know at some point one or both of them will make inroads, but damage control is what decides how much. Maintain the line and it won’t be broken.

Destructive Runner: Tyson Frizell is always a hard man to contain on the fringes

Jai Field: There’ll be many league fans who aren’t familiar with Jai Field, but for those of you who saw our predictions for 2017, you may have remembered that I cited the way that the Dragons use Jai Field will have major implications for where they place this season. This man is lighting quick, potentially more so than Bevan. He scored a great solo try against us at the 9s after burning Corey Norman on the outside and if used correctly, could prove the game breaker the Dragons need. As we all know there’s no substitute in rugby league for speed. The little man sniffing in and around the ruck only needs one offload to turn nothing into something. Markers will have to work hard if he’s in at dummy half, just as any gaps in the defensive line will have to be quickly shut. Don’t give this man an inch!

If the Dragons think they’re going to get the space and time they were provided by the Panthers this Sunday, they better think again. A resolute Eels defensive line will see stop to that and the Red V will have to earn many of the points that were simply given to them last weekend.

The forward battle is incredibly important. If Matagi and Mannah can reproduce their efforts on the peninsula, it will go a long way. Same too Nathan Brown and Daniel Alvaro. All ran for well over 100m and got over the advantage line. The start of the former two is most important. If we can remove the confidence of the Dragons early in this contest and post points within the first 10 minutes, it will go a very long way to building the foundations to an Eels away victory.

Similarly if we build pressure the way we did against Manly, I get the feeling the Dragons will crumble more quickly than the Sea-Eagles did. I think you’ll quickly see a trend develop throughout Eels games this year, and that’s that this is a team that will frustrate their opposition into errors. For the life of them, they won’t realise why they can’t bring their A game to an Eels encounter, but they’ll feel every bit of irritation and aggravation as they try to understand it.

Middle Contest: Dominate the Dragons middle men & the Eels will go a long way to winning

This is where we will be most dangerous in this clash. If we frustrate the Dragons into repeat defensive sets and get them playing under fatigue, the Red V of the last 18 months will quickly show themselves again, and the team from last Saturday will be quickly forgotten. Just as if we encourage them with a little bit of space and time, their confidence will build and the Dragons will put in a repeat Penrith performance.

With that being said however, I fully expect this to be a close encounter, with another 1-12 margin for the victor. St. George will come into this one with their self-belief high after a stirring victory over one of the competition heavyweights, but they’ve only served to put the Eels on notice and come in even more prepared for this clash.

A likely low-scoring encounter, one gets the feeling that if the Dragons pack aren’t dominant the Eels will have a little bit too much class for their counterparts. The likes of Corey Norman and Clint Gutherson will see to that. Just as if the Eels hit a two-tries or more lead, they won’t be run down and if they play in similar vein to the way they did at Lottoland, they’ll becoming away with the WIN in Wollongong. That being said, anyone discrediting the effort of the Dragons effort to down the  Panthers last week as purely being poor isn’t giving this St. George team enough credit. You still have to finish off the opportunities your opposition presents to you and they did that with relative ease.

Be careful Eels fans, the Saints are coming, but Dragons fans, so are the Eels.

Clint

All images courtesy of the Parramatta Eels, NRL.com and Getty Images.

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