Here we are – match week in the first round of the 2017 NRL season. Given that it’s team list Tuesday, I’m sure we can almost hear that first whistle. As this first stats story of 2017 hits your screens, the Eels are deep into their preparations for kick off against old foes – the Manly Sea Eagles at, errrmmm, Lottoland.
For Parramatta Eels fans, it’s felt like the longest summer. When your team doesn’t play in a finals series, it’s quite a stretch between drinks. It’s certainly made more difficult to swallow when the realisation kicks in that a points penalty, and not results, determined your team’s final placing. For Eels players and staff, competing for a top 8 berth was effectively taken away in April. This new season will start without that threat hanging over their heads.
Given that this is the first match of the season, there’s obviously no player stats for 2017. With this in mind I thought I’d take a look at recent history to see how Parramatta have started their seasons.
Could this be an indicator of the season ahead?
Could this be nothing more than a guide to your footy tipping selections?
Lets examine the last ten years:
| Season | Round | Match date | Match name | Venue name | Result |
| 2016 | 1 | 03-Mar-2016 | Eels vs Broncos | Pirtek Stadium | Broncos win by 13 points |
| 2015 | 1 | 06-Mar-2015 | Eels vs Sea Eagles | Pirtek Stadium | Eels win by 30 points |
| 2014 | 1 | 09-Mar-2014 | Eels vs Warriors | Pirtek Stadium | Eels win by 20 points |
| 2013 | 1 | 09-Mar-2013 | Eels vs Warriors | Pirtek Stadium | Eels win by 30 points |
| 2012 | 1 | 02-Mar-2012 | Eels vs Broncos | Pirtek Stadium | Broncos win by 12 points |
| 2011 | 1 | 12-Mar-2011 | Warriors vs Eels | Eden Park | Eels win by 6 points |
| 2010 | 1 | 12-Mar-2010 | Eels vs Dragons | Pirtek Stadium | Dragons win by 6 points |
| 2009 | 1 | 14-Mar-2009 | Warriors vs Eels | Mt Smart Stadium | Warriors win by 8 points |
| 2008 | 1 | 15-Mar-2008 | Eels vs Bulldogs | ANZ Stadium | Eels win by 8 points |
| 2007 | 1 | 17-Mar-2007 | Warriors vs Eels | Mt Smart Stadium | Warriors win by 16 points |
Over the past 10 seasons Parra have won 50% of their opening matches. Of these opening rounds, 6 of the games were at Pirtek Stadium, again for a 50% win ratio.
Incredibly, these fixtures have only featured five different clubs. Of these clubs, the Warriors have been drawn as our opponents on five occasions. They were almost becoming the Eels traditional first round clash.
We have played Manly only once to start a season in the last 10 seasons and that saw a comprehensive 42 -12 win to the Eels.
From a total points perspective, Parramatta have scored 228 and conceded 189, for an average score of 23 to 18.
Ultimately, the statistics point to Eels first round results being the proverbial toss of the coin.
What about the outcome proving to be an indicator of the season ahead?
The Eels have only featured in two finals series over the past ten years – 2007 and 2009. Both seasons saw Parramatta lose the opening round. Of course these seasons were in the distant past and only Tim Mannah remains from the 2009 squad.
The table above proves simply that the past is no indicator of the future, especially when it comes to predicting an opening round result. No doubt the Eels want to hit the ground running and kick the year off on a positive note. As Bernie Gurr stated in his recent press conference, we don’t want to look in the rear vision, we need to look through the windscreen.
My tip – each season is a whole new game. Enjoy round 1, but don’t read too much into it.
Colmac
Thanks and nice post Colmac!
Although we were beaten by the Broncos first round last season, I knew after that game that we were a good team with a bright future. I think the following week we went on to narrowly lose to the Cows? Whatever the results, we were a significantly better team than in previous years and that was quite noticeable.
We had a four point deduction over our heads before the season even kicked off too.
This year, all that is behind us and we can finally start afresh.
I’m tipping that we hand Manly their backsides on a plate at La La Land.
Starting without the points penalty hanging over our heads will be a massive plus!
Its a new year and I expect the eels to go well. Time will be needed for some new combinations to gel as well as the real makeup of the team for the year.
First game at Lar Lar land, well thats as good as the spam mail sponsor that the gulls now have, and I think it wlll be a tough game though with the gulls wanting to amend for last season as much as the eels, a wet game day is likely so whoever has sandpaper on their hands will likely win, maybe the 50/50 is a draw though.
I think it’s important to have both positivity yet also realistic expectations about the new combinations. They will need time, but the potential is mouth watering.
I actually expect Manly to be hard to beat On Sunday; they will have a strong start to season, and may not win all but think they will be more competitive. Just hope we can use the ball well and we have 3 top line players out – Peni, Au’va and Kenny I assume unless NRl allows him to play which they should.
That ground will be a bog on Sunday Mitchy. It will test the fitness of both teams.
It will also test the so called ground improvements that were supposed to have been carried out to improve drainage after complaints about the playing surface with tuffs being brought up by the boot sprigs, sure it was last year and a couple of clubs said it was dangerous to play there.
I believe it will be in the main a forwards game and see who tires first, meaning condition and fitness will be tested. I think the inexperienced players will need to watch things close regarding the ground conditions, do not want to see a long term injury sustained in the game.
Play sort of safe but play to win.
100% Mitchy. This will not be a walk in the park. We’ll have to earn every bit of this win.
Brookie will be a massive bog with the predicted rain. Colmac, would it be possible to list Manly’s first round results from the last 10 years?
Good point that Brooky will be bog a of track. It will be a big crowd in what should be a keenly contested game. The key for me is the 1st 20mins of the game and which pack gains the ascendency.
JJ, I’ve mentioned elsewhere that reserve seats are pretty much sold out. The weather will dictate the roll up for the hill. I always used to watch from the hill, but that was back when I was much younger and the best view at the suburban grounds was from the hill. It was a couple of dollars for entry and great value watching 3 grades. For the cost of a day at the NRL these days, (ticket, food, drink, parking) I prefer a guaranteed seat under cover. Don’t get me wrong, I still get to grass root footy for NSW Cup and junior reps, but the cost for those is minimal.