Date: Sunday July 17^th

Venue: Pepper Stadium

Gates Open: 1:30pm

Kick off:  4:00pm (NYC U20s 1:45pm)

Head Referee: Ben Cummins

Assistant Referee: Alan Shortall 

Head to head:

Head to head odds: Panthers ($1.28), Eels ($ 3.85)

Broadcast: Live Channel 9: 4:00pm

 

Last four encounters:

 

1. Panthers 20, Eels 18 at Pirtek Stadium (2016)
2. Eels 10, Panthers 4 at TIO Stadium (2015)
3. Eels 26, Panthers 20 at Pepper Stadium (2015)
4. Panthers 38, Eels 12 at Pepper Stadium (2014)

 

Preview:

As we enter the championship rounds of the NRL home and away season, this round nineteen encounter will see the out of sorts Penrith Panthers square off against the undermanned Parramatta Eels.

The Panthers enter this encounter having lost a match they were widely expected to win. Coming up against a Cronulla Sharks team missing their Origin stars, which included the likes of Paul Gallen, James Maloney, Jack Bird and Wade Graham, the Panthers faltered badly to go down 26 points to 10.

On the other side of the coin we have the Parramatta Eels who many suspected would lose to the Sydney Roosters, especially after the Roosters led the Eels 18 points to 6. However, a spirited Eels fight back led by Corey Norman led to an unlikely victory – 22 points to 18. Norman was named man of the match having laid on a try assist for all four of the Eels tries.

Unfortunately the Eels will be without Norman this week as he has been stood down for disciplinary reasons. Can the Eels overcome the odds and adversity yet again? There’s only one-way to find out, tune into this Sunday afternoon’s game any way you can.

 

Value Bet:

For this week’s value bet I like the Eels chances of defeating the Penrith Panthers by a margin of 1 to 12 points at $4.75.

In the first try scorer market, the Panthers have Dallin Watene Zelezniak and Josh Mansour both at $7.50 whereas the Parramatta Eels have Bevan French at $10 and Clint Gutherson out at $14.

 

Interesting fact:

Over a week ago the Eels overcame the odds to defeat the Sydney Roosters at Pirtek Stadium despite the fact they only had 44% of the possession and made a staggering 57 tackles more than the Roosters.  Those aren’t usually statistics you win games with. This means the Eels defence ultimately helped them secure victory. Given the fact the Panthers aren’t the best attacking team going round, this could have the Panthers fairly worried.

 

It will be a big game for:

In last week’s preview I highlighted that it would be a big game for Jeff Robson and this weekend’s game will be no different. Robson will have to do without the Eels best player this season (arguably) in Corey Norman.

At this stage it is unknown who will replace Norman in the halves, but it is speculated that Clint Gutherson will be the man to play five eighth. As Gutho is usually an outside back, Parramatta will rely heavily on Robson to steer the Eels around the park.

Robson was very impressive against the Roosters despite playing second fiddle to Corey Norman. He looked to have a very nice handle on the game, which is something the Eels have lacked since the departure of Kieran Foran.

However this Sunday’s game will be a big challenge for Robson who will be tasked with steering the Eels around the park as the primary playmaker and general play kicker. Given that he is not the most noted kicker of the ball he will have to make sure he has his kicking boots on, as the Eels will really need him towards the end of their sets.

One could speculate that the Panthers would know where the ball is going on the last tackle. This means Robson is going to need good service from his dummy half, Isaac De Gois. Given IDG’s form, that shouldn’t be a problem for him.

 

 

Danger man:

This weeks danger man is Panthers five eighth and potential utility player Bryce Cartwright. Whenever teams come up against a Penrith Panthers outfit that contains Bryce Cartwright, he is always automatically highlighted as a danger man.

Although starting his career in the forwards, a still young Cartwright has found himself in a multitude of positions including lock forward, second row, centre and now five eighth. According to most experts a shift to five eighth for Cartwright was inevitable and it’s not hard to see why many people have that view.

Cartwright is a fairly big man and has some very impressive skills: a great offload, the ability to attract more than one defender, a good passing game and a nice short kicking game. On paper he seems the perfect option for the Panthers in the halves and it looks like Panthers coach Anthony Griffin would agree after releasing Jamie Soward.

Despite being well favoured for the five eighth role, Cartwright is yet to really stamp his authority on a game in that position. He has shown glimpses of brilliance from five eighth but his performances have been pretty inconsistent thus far. Cartwright will be determined to own a game from five eighth and who’s to say he can’t do it this Sunday against the Parramatta Eels.

 

 

 

Penrith Panthers (10^th coming into the round)

 

1. Matt Moylan (C)
2. Josh Mansour
3. Waqa Blake
4. Zak Hardaker
5. Dallin Watene Zelezniak
6. Bryce Cartwright
7. Nathan Cleary
8. Leilani Latu
9. Peter Wallace
10. Regan Campbell – Gillard
11. Isaah Yeo
12. James Fisher – Harris
13. Trent Merrin

 

14. Suaia Matagi
15. Jeremy Latimore
16. Chris Grevsmuhl
17. Tyrone Peachy

 

18. Dylan Edwards, 19. Will Smith, 20. Sitaleki Akauola

 

Coach: Anthony Griffin

 

Late mail: Matt Moylan is expected to take his place at fullback and be fit to play, so expect the Panthers to be 1 to 17.

  

Parramatta Eels (14^th coming into the round *12 points deducted)

 

1. Michael Gordon
2. Clint Gutherson
3. Michael Jennings
4. Brad Takairangi
5. Bevan French
6. TBA *(after Corey Norman was stood down a few days ago)
7. Jeff Robson
8. Danny Wicks
9. Issac De Gois
10. Tim Mannah
11. Manu Ma’u
12. Tepai Moeroa
13. Beau Scott (C)

 

14. Kenny Edwards
15. Peni Terepo
16. David Gower
17. Daniel Alvaro

 

18. Rory O’ Brien

 

Coach: Brad Arthur

 

Late mail: Corey Norman was stood down earlier this week due to off field misconduct, as a result the Eels will need to find a replacement. Clint Gutherson is the most likely to replace Norman at five eighth. In other news Michael Jennings is expected to take his place following his match winning effort in Origin three.

  

Two key match ups:

 

Nathan Cleary vs Jeff Robson: T

The first key match up is a battle of the halfbacks as Panthers young gun Nathan Cleary squares off against Eels veteran Jeff Robson.

When it comes to players who you may think will be superstars in the future it’s hard to look past Panthers boom young halfback Nathan Cleary – the son of former Penrith Panthers coach Ivan Cleary. Young Cleary once stated that if his father was still coach at the Penrith Panthers that he would not be playing NRL this season. One could suggest that Ivan Cleary thought his son was not ready to play NRL. However, in Anthony Griffin’s eyes, Nathan Cleary is ready for NRL and it is very hard to argue with that sentiment.

The eighteen-year-old Cleary made his debut in round thirteen against the Melbourne Storm when the Panthers were defeated by a sizeable margin. Cleary didn’t have a massive impact on the game in that one. However in just his second NRL match Cleary was able to have an impact by scoring a try and helping to guide the Panthers to a much needed win against Manly Warringah Sea Eagles.

Cleary’s impact continued into round fifteen when he was named man of the match for the Panthers in their win against the Souths Sydney Rabbitohs. At this point in time the NRL community stood up and took notice of Cleary as a player to watch in the future. Fast forward to the present day, round nineteen and the young half is well and truly the primary playmaker at the Panthers. Even at this early stage in his career some experts have earmarked him as a future New South Wales Origin halfback in years to come.

Against the young Panthers half will be veteran Eels halfback Jeff Robson. Robson isn’t known for his supreme playmaking ability but he is a very experienced campaigner. Pressure situations like the Eels are currently in require an experienced individual like Robson tasked with controlling the game as opposed to a rookie with no NRL experience (which might have been the case for the Eels if they had not signed Jeff Robson).

The thing that impressed me most about Robson last week was his defence. He has always been a very solid defender and hammered that point across last week as he took down every player that ran his way. Roosters back rower Boyd Cordner was the victim on a number of occasions. However, the Eels will be hoping Robson can be more than just be a capable defender come Sunday afternoon. They will be hoping Robson plays a man of the match game and keeps the their slim finals hopes alive.

 

 

Trent Merrin vs Beau Scott:

The second key match up is a battle of the lock forwards as Panthers superstar Trent Merrin squares off against Eels hard man Beau Scott.

This season has been far from Trent Merrin’s best NRL season. It’s not that he has been poor this season, but he has been far from his best. Last year Merrin was in the NSW Origin team and looked certain to be selected again this season. However, his non-selection came as a shock to many as some people even had him earmarked as the next NSW Origin captain, namely Panthers general manager Phil Gould who really seen Merrin as a player to lead NSW into the future.

Of course, to suggest Merrin’s Origin days are behind him would be a a premature call indeed. On his day he is one of the game’s most potent and damaging attacking forwards, He has the ability to offload the ball at will and can often attract more than two or three defenders to a tackle which is a very handy ability in today’s modern game.

Merrin will be eager to get back to his best form and after seeing him play for a few years now his best form could only be one game away. The Eels will aim to shut down his second phase play and will also want to get good first up content on Merrin as he has great footwork close to line and can often slip out of a tackle.

Opposing Merrin will be Eels hard man and captain Beau Scott. Just like Merrin, Scott found himself left out of the NSW Origin team this season. However unlike Merrin many would suggest this season has been one of Beau Scott’s better seasons.

After departing the Newcastle Knights last season many Eels fans feared Scott was too old and would find the transition to the Eels too challenging.

Impressively, Scott silenced the critics and has been one of the Eels best this season. Even Scott’s snub from the Blues has come as a shock to many given his recent success in that arena and his outstanding form this year. Who could deny his ability to shut down playmakers. His notorious confrontations with Thurston may well have been a handy addition to the Origin team this year.

However come Sunday afternoon Origin selection will be the least of Beau Scott’s worries as he and the Parramatta Eels will be trying the best to keep their slim finals hopes alive. Knowing the type of player Beau Scott is, he will give nothing less than his best!

 

  

My Tip:

My tip for this one was summed up earlier in this preview in both the value bet and interesting fact segments.

I see the Eels overcoming the odds yet again and this isn’t blind faith, I actually believe the Eels can come away with victory. Over a week ago the Eels put in a spectacular defensive performance to beat the Sydney Roosters and throughout the course of the year the Eels defence has been a cornerstone of their success.

The Panthers on the other hand have struggled with their attack, and last Sunday was the perfect example as they struggled to score points against a very undermanned Cronulla Sharks outfit (they only scored 10 points at home).

Given that, I see the Eels causing the Panthers a few problems. Put me down for an Eels victory but only just, Eels 14 – Panthers 12.

 

Man of the match: Manu Ma’u or Nathan Cleary

 

Enjoy the game, GO THE EELS !!!

Nathan