It’s hard to deny that rugby league isn’t full of surprises. There’s always something around the corner, particularly when you’re an Eels fan.

Last night, that came in the form of our Captain and Halfback, Kieran Foran, stepping down from rugby league indefinitely to attend to a personal matter.

On behalf of The Cumberland Throw, I would like to offer our position of support to Kieran and take the opportunity to state that we will not be commenting on this matter any further.

As such, focus of this analysis will be placed onto who replaces him and how we manage the absence of our Captain.

LIGHTNING STRIKES TWICE?

It’s Round 9 and this evening we play the Bulldogs for the second time this season.

This follows on from our defeat at the hands of the Cowboys in Townsville last Saturday night, who we also played for the second time this season.

Now I don’t want to disparage the people who design the draw of the NRL competition and I full well know that given the nature of the current set up, it’s impossible to have one side play each of the other fifteen teams twice in opposing rounds.

However, something must be said of a system that fosters these kind of outcomes (which I’ll address and add some interesting statistics and information into the comment section below).

With that aside, these are the cards we have been dealt and we must play the game accordingly.

Which brings me to tonight’s game – I love it when we play beat Canterbury-Bankstown.

Similarly you could say I despise losing to them – and given that we have only won 2 of our past 11 encounters,  I don’t think any of us have been happy campers the past few years when we’ve drawn the Bulldogs.

It’s what makes our Round 3 victory such an incredibly satisfying result. I’m sure many of you will agree with me in saying that the way we man-handled our opposition that night, particularly given how they have done much of the same to us the past five years, was a great indication of what this team can do.

So how do handle tonight? In exactly the same fashion.

And if you want to get a better idea of how we manage their players, be sure to check out my Bulldogs Opposition Analysis from Round 3 here

The Bulldogs are a frustrating team to play against – you have to earn your points and your middle has to work overtime to limit the impact and roll on of their big forward pack.

We did this to brilliant effect in Round 3. Every try we scored, we earned; just as every tackle we made, limited the Bulldogs forwards.

Tonight however, is a slightly different proposition.

We have to try and repeat this effort without our Captain and Halfback, Kieran Foran and his replacement will be very indicative of our mentality going into this game.

A few names have been thrown around already, but the question most Eels fans have been asking the last 24 hours, is ‘Who does Brad Arthur turn to?’

Allow me to intervene and put my coaching hat on here for a second and ask a better question, because this is the heart of the real choice for tonight’s replacement and our mentality.

‘Do you want to replace Kieran Foran in the attacking structure? Or do you want to replace Kieran Foran in the defensive line? Which is going to have a greater impact on the outcome of tonight’s game?’

Below I’ll go through the possible replacement options and the reasons why/our mentality behind those decisions.

THE OPTIONS

Luke Kelly: Normally Luke Kelly would be the first man called in and it’s a shame he’s picked up an ACL injury, which will keep him out for the rest of the season.

I know he has a lot of critics and some of that has been rightly justified in the past, but there is no denying that he is a half who is capable of defending strongly in an NRL side and that he is capable of playing the supporting half role well – this is the reason why he has been continuously selected in the Eels time of need.

For me, I have only really seen Kelly struggle in First Grade when he’s been expected to play the dominant half role – with Corey Norman there, that would have negated that responsibility for him and again, it’s a shame we couldn’t call upon his services to fill in this evening.

Mitch Cornish: Cornish is a brilliantly talented half. With the ball in hand he looks sleek, skilful and seems to put his outside runners into holes quite effortlessly. I know when Foran was ruled out for Round 1, many Eels fans were calling for Mitch to replace him.

However, what most fans seem to miss is that rugby league is played both sides of the ball and in the NRL, if you’re not strong defensively, you’ll be targeted and seemingly found out.

Unfortunately for Mitch, this is the only thing that’s halted his NRL career so far. He’s by no means awful and I’m certainly not laying the boot into him, it’s just as it stands, he’s a little bit off the pace defensively when compared with the other half choices at the club.

If we select Mitch, there will be question marks asked of our right edge all night long. Now while Takairangi & Gutherson have come on leaps and bounds since Round 1, it’s a big ask for Cornish to step in and fulfil the defensive side of Foran’s duties, and expect him to do so to the same effect as Kieran does.

This will mean that the likes of Takaz, Gutho and Beau Scott will have to adjust their roles in the defensive line and it may disrupt our continuity and defensive patterns as a result – this would leave us vulnerable and mean we may have to cover for more points than our attack can handle at present.

Similarly though, Cornish brings a very polished long kick game which could be incredibly vital when trying to control field position and keeping the Bulldogs within their own half.

The question with selecting Mitch Cornish becomes twofold – ‘Can we manage his defensive workload effectively so that it doesn’t disrupt the defensive structure we’ve spent building all off-season?’ and ‘Can he bring enough in attack to off-set any potential defensive weaknesses and effectively relieve the pressure that would be mounted on Corey Norman?’

Brad Takairangi: Takaz is big enough and talented enough to make this transition and cover for tonight’s game. With plenty of NRL experience at five-eighth, tonight could easily see Brad shift in one in the defensive line and get his hands on the ball a little more. However, I also understand and agree with not upsetting growing combinations.

If I was Arthur although tempted, I would be reluctant to split up Takairangi and Gutherson. Not because I believe I can’t do the job; but more because I settled on this combination at the start of the year, because they’ve spent all off-season training together and they are now 9 weeks into their combination. If these two are my first choice right centre and winger, I don’t want to split them up.

Additionally, I’d have to question Takairangi’s long kicking game. I don’t have any vision or anecdotal evidence to share to suggest that this is a strong facet of Brad’s skill set; so on the law of averages, I’m going to lean on the side that suggests his selection in the halves would impact our kicking game and place further pressure on Norman to control the game.

Clinton Gutherson: I’ve developed a fondness for Clinton Gutherson. Not just because he’s my namesake, but because he’s shown a lot of character to come back from multiple season-ending injuries; was placed in a position where he was more-or-less told he’d have no opportunities to further his career at Manly, after signing a lengthy contract extension; was absolutely bagged following our losses to the Broncos and Panthers respectively; and has been peppered with excessive kick-return responsibilities because opposition teams say “Kick it away from Semi”.

Yet still he stands firm, turns up each week and has been consistently making metres for us and getting our sets started on the right foot. No doubt he is still raw and there are still some errors in his game, but I think of them more as ‘teething issues’ that are part and parcel of adjusting to First Grade above everything else.

Not many people would be aware, but the man affectionately known as Captain America (it’s a thing). has a lot of strings to his bow.

He was a super-talented youngster who made and dominated for just about every junior representative side he played in; he did so playing numerous positions across the backline (halves included); and as a fullback, he was a very strong link player with great pass selection.

It is for these reasons, he could very well fill-in at the halves this evening and why Arthur may consider him as an option.

Again I err on the side of caution here, not because I don’t have faith in Clint, but more so because I feel it would disrupt our defensive line too much.

If either he or Takaz move in, it means we need a three-quarter to replace them. It means anyone of Toutai, Folau (pending injury status), Morgan or Faraimo come in onto the right edge and the rest of the defensive has to adjust to being in different positions, as well as a new face. When you’re talking about structures, this is far from ideal.

Kaysa Pritchard: Some may find it interesting – the proposition of young Kaysa in the halves. However, with his dynamic kamikaze-style running game, he may be the best way to emulate Foran in the Eels attacking structure, without compromising too much in the defensive line.

It’s been noted in the Eels Injury Report that he sustained a low grade ankle sprain and will be unavailable for Round 9 selection in any team. However, it’s not uncommon for a player to play through these type of injuries when their coach calls upon them and he may just ask that of Kaysa tonight.

With his injury history in mind though, I do believe that it’s in Kaysa’s best interests that we allow him to recover and call upon him for hooking duties specifically.

Kenny Edwards: Not many people know that Kenny Edwards used to be a five-eighth himself.

It probably comes as no surprise when you start to reflect on the skills he has. For a big man, his hands are very light and his pass selection much smarter than the average forward.

Similarly, his presence in the defensive line is fantastic – he hits and he hits aggressively.

If asked to step into Foran’s shoes tonight I don’t think Kenny would let anyone down. If anything, he’s going to make us stronger defensively and he’s going to give the Bulldogs a bigger body to worry about closer to the line. The real question comes about to how his potential selection affects our kicking game and our bench rotation – his impact coming on in the back end of halves has been phenomenal and has been responsible for more than a few momentum swings in our previous 8 games.

Obviously playing Kenny in the halves places a large amount of pressure on Corey Norman as our chief kicker, particularly when you consider we are a team that plays without a noted kicking option at either hooker or fullback – but with that being said, his selection would cause the least amount of disturbance to our defensive line, and we can bring David Gower onto the bench, who played brilliantly against the Doggies in Round 3 and is very familiar with our structures.

Similarly, Tim Mannah may also be a late inclusion and Coach Arthur may refer to shifting Alvaro back to the bench in place of Edwards, if he’s selected in the halves.

WHO TO GO WITH?

As you can see from above, we have a few possibilities at our disposal. However, given our current circumstances, the choice in my mind comes down to two candidates – Mitch Cornish and Kenny Edwards.

Mitch Cornish brings one hell of an asset that’s important to containing the Bulldogs – a very strong long kicking game. He has the ability to keep the ball down in their half all night long and is very good at picking up his outside men of smart short balls. If he gets the green light tonight, don’t be surprised to see breaks or even points scored from his pass selection – and it’ll look very smooth.

However, as stated earlier, his presence will somewhat upset the applecart defensively – it becomes a question of just how much and whether we can accommodate this?

No doubt, he’ll be the biggest stress reliever to Corey Norman, but will he place further stress on the team against a large forward pack that would be looking to test him out? Only time would tell.

With Kenny Edwards on the other hand, we sacrifice our kicking game, placing all the stress onto Corey Norman’s shoulders; but gain a stronger body in the defensive line and someone who has the ability to effectively distribute the ball to outside men for opportunities, as opposed to directly controlling their edge with sleek set plays.

If it were up to me, I’d probably narrowly select Kenny Edwards ahead of Cornish.

The reason comes from the Brian Smith school of thought as he did many years ago with Daniel Wagon.

As we remember, Daniel Wagon wasn’t a noted ball distributer. In fact I recall many times as a youngster getting continuously frustrated when he was playing in the 6 for us.

In my youth, I didn’t understand the importance of the defensive line and just wanted to see fancy tries scored all day long; maintaining little regard for what happens off the ball, as opposed to having it in hand.

However, what Wagon brought to the team back then was the ability to play a supporting half role (without being a noted kicker) and he defended tremendously. It’s little surprise as to why when the likes of Jason Smith, Jim Dymock or Michael Buettner were out in the late 90s – early 00s that Brian Smith would call upon him – even Wayne Bennett did for 3 origins in 2001 (and subsequent Origin appearances in 2002 for which he was ruled out with injury).

It is this line of thought that makes me lean towards Edwards.

As much as I’d love to see what Mitch Cornish can bring to our attacking structures (and I really do want to. I absolutely rate the kid and would love to see him as part of our attack), I would be very hesitant to bring him back to NRL level and ask him to fit into our defensive line against a big team with strong forwards and edge runners like the Bulldogs.

If it was against a weaker running team whose big men weren’t as threatening, I’d be jumping all over at the opportunity to throw Mitch in there, but I don’t think tonight is the occasion for that.

But then again, I’m not Brad Arthur and this is the dilemma he and the rest of the coaching staff faces.

One thing’s for certain though, whoever he picks, is indicative of our mentality and how we’ll play tonight. Are we looking to win with our attack? Or are we looking to win with our defence?

So I’ll leave it open to you now Eels fans and I ask you to do so with the real question in mind:  ‘Do you replace Kieran Foran in the attacking structure? Or do you replace Kieran Foran in the defensive line? Which do you think is going to have a greater impact on the outcome of tonight’s game?’

So with that being said, who do you bring in?

 

Clint

All images courtesy of the Parramatta Eels, NRL.com and Getty Images.