There’s not many more heartbreaking experiences in rugby league than losing a game on the siren at home, particularly when you should have wrapped the game up much earlier (and when it costs you your perfect round in tipping!). However, that is the reality for our Eels as they head into this crucial Round 6 clash against former Coach, Ricky Stuart’s, Canberra Raiders.

In the post-match presser Eels captain, Kieran Foran, alluded to the fact that “we could very well be 5-0” at this stage, but the reality is, we are 3-2, and have to be treating today’s game with a strong degree of urgency, and as a must-win.

Now the supporter in me feels, every game is a must-win. What are you talking about must-win Clint? We should aim to win every game! And I agree. However, the coach in me recognizes, you can’t win them all, and that certain games pertain more importance to the way in which they shape your season – this is one such game.

I remember clearly in 2005, after a rather mixed start to our campaign, following a strong victory over the Wests Tigers in round one and a scratchy win over the Panthers at home in round four (as well as some poor losses to South Sydney & Cronulla), our Eels were handed an absolute thrashing at the hands of the Broncos in round five at Suncorp. It was the type of game where we did everything wrong, they did everything right, but all-in-all, you seriously questioned where the boys heads and hearts were that early April Sunday afternoon.

Following the Broncos clash, we had a road trip to Olympic Park. Now on any given day, this was a test of a team’s mental fortitude, however for us, it was set to be one of those season-defining type games.

So down to Melbourne we went, battered and bruised with our tails between our legs from the week before, keen to make amends and not let a season of promise suddenly go to waste. Following some very typical last minute Brian Smith changes to the originally named 17, our beloved Eels came away with a very gritty 26-14 victory (with current NRL referee, Henry Perenara scoring a very crucial try).

It was the type of performance that made you take notice as a supporter – this is a team, that despite a disappointing setback, has the ability to galvanize itself and match it with the big boys.

Try Time: A little bit of Semi magic will go a long way against the Raiders

Now although I don’t view this game as the real turning point of our 2005 season (that was to follow a few rounds later against the North Queensland Cowboys at home). It was a very important performance in the scheme of our season. Melbourne may not have been at the height of their powers, but they were a side building towards it and who were a tough opposition for any team to face and we were a side of tremendous promise, who had to start finding ways to live up to our potential.

They had a hooker who controlled the ruck brilliantly in a young Cameron Smith, who continuously got the forwards rolling over the advantage line; a controlled half with an astute kicking game in Matt Orford; a brilliant running five-eighth who was a constant threat to the line in Scott Hill; some big bulky forwards in Robbie Kearns, Alex Chan, Antonio Kaufusi and Brett White, who kept coming at you all day long; a defensively sound lock who tackled himself to a stand-still in Dallas Johnson; some great edge runners in David Kidwell and Ryan Hoffman; one winger who was no-fuss and went about his business effectively in Matt Geyer, the other a talented rangy player with great finishing ability in a then young Greg Inglis; a youngster at fullback who despite some indifferent performances and some origin appearances the year before, was a young player ready to make an even bigger name for himself in Billy Slater; and an impassioned Coach, in Craig Bellamy, who had spent a couple of seasons building his squad and was ready to take his team to the next level.

This was our opposition, this was round 6, April 16th, 2005.

Fast forward to almost 11 years to the day, April 9th, 2016, and our beloved Eels face a very similar opposition, under similar circumstances at Pirtek Stadium.

While we may not be coming off a 54-14 hiding like we were then, the importance of a victory this afternoon against a team that will be there-abouts, is just as imperative today, as it was April 16th, 2005.

Despite an ultra impressive away victory against the Bulldogs at Belmore, the Raiders head into today’s game as rank outsiders. While the bookies may be reading a little too much into their Austin-and-Sezer-less loss at home the week prior to the Titans, it’s clear to all who have witnessed these two play together, that they pose a very real threat to any defensive line and will only get stronger the more game time they enjoy together. Their strong running games and ability to ask questions should be enough, to narrow the betting markets, but as we all know, rugby league isn’t played based on the bookies opinion.

Our Eels, after succumbing to a on-the-buzzer loss to ‘little brother’ Penrith, will be looking to make amends and prove to our coaching staff and supporters, that we have the ability to close out a game, when in a winning position; as well as the ability to bounce back from disappointment.

Today shapes as a cracker, with a dry fast pitch and a high of 23, these are the days you absolutely love to both watch, and play, rugby league in. I expect both sides to throw plenty at each other and a close contest not too unlike our previous encounter, to unfold.

This is the type of game that’s tailor-made for halves to dominant in – it’s a few rounds into the season; combinations have had the opportunity to build; and with the weather conditions of day football, now is the time for a set of halves to stamp their authority on a game.

But just who will this be today? We’ve already witnessed the Raiders pairing display a complete performance and put Canterbury back in the doghouse; while our boys are still experiencing some teething issue, with things not quite clicking as of yet.

So will Austin and Sezer bring Monday’s good form into today? Will Norman and Foran finally make their mark?

Who knows? But what we do know, is that whoever’s set of halves takes the most control, will win the game today.

So with that said, let’s take a closer look at how our opposition shape for today’s fixture.

Attack-Focused: Kieran Foran recognizes how important it is for the Eels attack to start hitting their strides

OUR OPPOSITION

The Raiders are pretty strong across the park. There’s a real balance to their side and squad that not many other teams possess. Moreover, everyone within this squad knows how to do their job and to do it with effect, just like that Melbourne side we played 11 years ago.

They have a hooker who controls the ruck brilliantly in current Daly M Medal leader, Josh Hodgson, who continuously gets the his big men over the advantage line; a controlled half with an astute kicking game in Aidan Sezer; a brilliant running five-eighth who was a constant threat to the line in Blake Austin; some big bulky forwards in Shannon Boyd, Frank-Paul Nuuausala, and Paul Vaughan, who keep coming at you all day long; a defensively sound lock who tackles himself to a stand-still in Shaun Fensom; some great edge runners in Josh Papalli and Elliot Whithead; one winger who was no-fuss and went about his business effectively in Jordan Rapana, the other a talented rangy player with great finishing ability in a then young Edrick Lee; a youngster at fullback who despite some indifferent performances is a young player ready to make a bigger name for himself in Jack Wighton; and an impassioned Coach, in Ricky Stuart, who has spent a couple of seasons building his squad and is ready to take his team to the next level.

Throw into the mix some seasoned campaigners in the ever reliable Jarrod Croker; former Newcastle centre Joey Leilua; impressive youngster Joseph Tapine and it’s easy to see why the Raiders are a team on the rise – particularly given the recruitment of our very own Junior Paulo for season 2017 and beyond, but that’s a story for another time.

They are a side going places, and as long as their halves stay on the field, they’ll continue to grow – for our defence, this will be their biggest test to date.

Now the form guide may suggest something to the contrary on the whole, but it’s only the games in which the Austin-Sezer combination has played, that gives any indication for what we’re to expect today – and if those games are anything to go by, it will mean our defence will be stretched unlike it has on any other occasion, in 2016.

In tandem with brilliant hooker, Josh Hodgson, these two absolutely run the show. The play direct and create regular space on the fringes; and their pass selection is top shelf. Concurrently, Hodgson knows when to play it up the middle, when to distribute the ball quickly, and as we found out in golden point in our 2015 clash, when to run.

Danger Man: Raiders hooker, Josh Hodgson, will be relentless in trying to break down the Eels defense today

The dominance of their middle (particularly in their win over the Bulldogs in Round 5) sets this platform, and creates the opportunities for these three to establish themselves on any given game. As such, the ruck defence of our middle third will have to be absolutely on point to prevent the Raiders any additional time and space. We can ill-afford to fall asleep in this area, and we were found out at certain times last week against the Panthers, with Penrith making cheap metres up the middle.

For this reason, it is good to see Daniel Alvaro return to first grade and in a starting position. His selection was no doubt, made with this exact point in mind. We will require big bodies for the full 80 minutes, working over the Raiders forwards in the ruck and slowing down the play the ball – on a fast track in sunny conditions that are conducive to expansive attacking rugby league, and a side who are well adept to playing expansive rugby league in the Raiders, this is where our biggest challenge will lie today.

With this in mind, let’s to look more closely at our main threats this afternoon.

Crucial Selection: The promotion of Daniel Alvaro to the Eels top squad, in place of the injured Tim Mannah, will be particularly important to the Eels defensive structure

WHO WILL TRY TO EXPOSE US & WHERE

Jarrod Croker & Edrick Lee: Croker had a game to remember when the Eels and Raiders last met. Scoring a double and kicking a sideline conversion near full-time to send the game into golden point, has left the Canberra captain with fond memories of Pirtek. Defensively sound and under-rated in attack, he and wing partner Edrick Lee are target men in the Raiders’ offence with the two scoring 24 tries between them in 2015 and forming a strong combination.

Eels fans will also remember that it was Lee who scored the near full-time try which lead to golden point in 2015, and that the big winger is a difficult player to tackle, who gets the Raiders sets going on the front foot. The more we can restrict Lee returning our kicks, the closer to the Raiders red-zone, will we be defending our sets; while Brad Takairangi & Clint ‘Captain America’ Gutherson will have to be in their face all day to limit their space, when defending closer to our line.

Blake Austin: With the best running game of any half in the competition, Blake Austin is a monumental threat. For a big man he posses both light feet and soft hands and seems at times to break the line with consummate ease. With the ability to pass before the line; at line; through the line; and to just offload in general, he is an incredibly hard player to tackle one-on-one. Of all the people I would be singling out to Beau Scott to make himself a nuisance to, Blake Austin would be pretty close to top of that list.

Don’t let him run: Raiders Five-Eighth Blake Austin is hard to contain

Aidan Sezer: Sezer has one of the most underrated kicking games in this competition, and for a couple of seasons now, has found open space a lot more regularly than some of the more fancied halves in the NRL. He’ll be the Raiders go to man on the fifth and pressuring him into rush kicks could be the difference between the Raiders establishing field position and our back three catching it on the full and returning the ball to a staggered defensive line. We must not allow Sezer to dictate the state of play with his kicking game and little efforts on the fifth will go a long way to doing just that, as will similarly targeting him in the defensive line, when we have ball in hand, as Sezer is not a noted defender.

Josh Hodgson: As an avid watcher of the Super League, Hodgson is a player who impressed me even in his Hull KR days. A crafty hooker who knows when to run, how to expose the markers, kicks for territory and provides exceptional service from dummy half, there should be little surprise to why this man currently leads the Daly M Medal count – he just controls the middle third and play-the-ball, both sides of the ball, so well.

Metre Maker: Preventing Josh Papalii getting over the advantage line stops a lot of the Raiders go-forward

Josh Papalii: Papalii is in tremendous form at the moment. Strong carries, plenty of metres and even a few ‘meat pies’ to boot in 2016. The one-time Eel to be can be one of the most damaging ball runners on the fringes, if you’re not regularly meeting him with up and in defence. Our back-row should be taking this challenge incredibly personally and I expect the likes of Scott, Ma’u, Edwards and Moeroa to look at Big Josh and say “You’re mine” if we are to be successful in containing him today.

Paul Vaughan: A very strong impact player off the bench. His charges over the course of his short career have resulted in many a momentum change in the Raiders favour. He is an example of why a sustained 80 minute effort is required to win in the NRL today, because teams can have forwards of his quality and output coming off the bench and sustain pressure in the middle third – keep him quiet and we build the necessary opportunities to create and sustain pressure of our own after the first 20-30 minutes.

Rugby League Weather: Today’s conditions are made for players like Michael Jennings to thrive in

I’ve alluded to it already in this article and I’ll say it again – today is a rugby league day – warm without being too hot; slightly cool air, but no wind; a dry track and two of the higher quality teams in the competition going head-to-head.

It’s really hard to separate the two sides at the moment. If our attack clicks, as today’s conditions are conducive to, then we’ve got this covered, but if they don’t, another tight content will ensue and are defensive line will be under continuous and mounting pressure from the opening whistle.

This is why it’s a halves game. I think as Eels supporters, we already have a fair idea of what the Raiders will bring to the table today – it’s our own side we’re a little unsure of, at least with ball in hand.

If the balls hit their mark, if the timing is right and our set plays are in sync, our outside backs will worry the Raiders defensive line. It’s the type of day where Semi, Jennings, Takairangi & Gutherson really have the chance to establish dominance over their opposition – particularly when you consider that Canberra aren’t the strongest side off the ball. As teams have shown in the past 12 months, you can score points against them provided the foundations of your attacking structure hold true and passes don’t go wayward. In short, it’s up to Foran and Norman to step up and control this game and ensure their set plays are in sync.

Additionally, this is a game where we have to step up and show how we respond to disappointment. When we played the Storm in 2005, our new halfback Tim Smith, and five-eighth John Morris, took control and laid on some great tries and were supported by a team that didn’t allow Cameron Smith or the Melbourne halves to assert their dominance.

The exact same type of scenario lays ahead for our boys today and just like it did 11 years ago. This is a must-win game for a team, that despite a disappointing setback, has the ability to galvanize itself and match it with the big boys.

Clint

All images courtesy of the Parramatta Eels, NRL.com and Getty Images.

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