Welcome to this week’s statistical preview. This 2016 Round 6 clash sees the Eels play the Raiders for the 52nd time. From a historical perspective, you cannot split these two sides with Canberra just ahead with a 26/25 win rate.
Looking at the results on a venue basis, 21 games have been played at Pirtek/Parramatta Stadium, with the Eels ahead via a 13/8 win rate. One should expect to see the home team holding an historical advantage over opposition teams on their home patch, so let’s hope that the Eels add to that statistic this weekend.
If you break down this year’s stats by quarter, they show that out of the 5 games played by both teams, the Raiders have won 4 times in the first 20 mins, and matched this in the 40 – 60 minute period. But they haven’t won the 2nd quarter (20 – 40 minute) section at all.
Parramatta on the other hand have “won” every category of quarter match breakdown at various times this season. So, if Parra can defend well at the start of both halves, and can then attack in the back end of the halves, this could see a very good Parramatta victory.
In another developing trend, when Parramatta have led at half time (3 times), they have converted each lead to a full time victory. Conversely, the Raiders have lead twice at half time and have a 50% success rate.
For those interested in specific results since 2007, the following table is a great reference point.
| Season | Round | Team | Score | Team | Score | Venue name | Result |
| 2015 | 26 | Eels | 24 | Raiders | 28 | Pirtek Stadium | Raiders win by 4 points |
| 2014 | 26 | Eels | 20 | Raiders | 33 | GIO Stadium | Raiders win by 13 points |
| 2014 | 22 | Eels | 18 | Raiders | 10 | TIO Stadium | Eels win by 8 points |
| 2013 | 19 | Eels | 0 | Raiders | 14 | GIO Stadium | Raiders win by 14 points |
| 2012 | 10 | Eels | 34 | Raiders | 40 | GIO Stadium | Raiders win by 8 points |
| 2011 | 16 | Eels | 12 | Raiders | 25 | GIO Stadium | Raiders win by 13 points |
| 2010 | 5 | Eels | 14 | Raiders | 24 | Pirtek Stadium | Raiders win by 10 points |
| 2009 | 3 | Eels | 18 | Raiders | 16 | Pirtek Stadium | Eels win by 2 points |
| 2008 | 13 | Eels | 30 | Raiders | 12 | Pirtek Stadium | Eels win by 18 points |
| 2007 | 4 | Eels | 38 | Raiders | 6 | Parramatta Stadium | Eels win by 32 points |
From 2010 onwards, the Eels have only managed to secure one victory over the Raiders. Without knowing this statistic, I wonder how many people would be familiar with this poor recent record by the Eels. Anybody assuming that the Eels are strong favourites for this match should think again. When the Raiders up- tempo forward charges have been on song, Parramatta’s defence have often had trouble in containing them. Despite some solid form this season, the Eels will need to take their game to another level to feel confident of securing a win.
| Position | Team Name | Played | Win | Loss | Draw | Bye | Total for | Total against | Points |
| 3 | Canberra Raiders | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 117 | 98 | 7 |
| 8 | Parramatta Eels | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 59 | 6 |
What does the points table tell us?
With only one loss this season, the Raiders find themselves in third place despite giving up nearly 20 points per game on average. In contrast, the Eels have conceded less than 12 points per game. The rock solid Eels defence has certainly been a highlight during the early part of the season.
Of course, the other side of the coin is the attack of both sides. Canberra have produced some of their most entertaining football this season on the back of Dally M leader, Josh Hodgson. The Green Machine have tallied up 47 more points than the Eels across the 5 matches, which converts to almost 10 points per game. It’s hard to argue with those numbers when it comes to judging the threats posed by both teams.
Perhaps we’ll find out what aspect of the game is more important in securing the premiership points. Is defence the key, or should we be putting more pressure on the opposition defence through greater variety in our attacking shapes?
Whatever line we can draw through the numbers, it will still be great for the Eels faithful to let Stuart know how we regard him.
A victory to the Eels will help those calls to sound out long after the final siren has blown.
Colmac
Yeah, good right up mate.
I’m looking forward most to the halves battle. Our halves combination is potentially the most lethal in the competition but we still wait for one of them to put their hand up and be the dominant play maker?
I am also interested to see how our third man in tackles completes his task. I find that too often our third man comes in a little too late and stifles a promising set in defense. It’s a given to slow the ruck down but by doing it too well, it slows everything down and allows the opposition to set themselves well for an attacking raid. It is a fine line here, but we need to complete a tackle with less mess.
That’s an interesting take on the third man in. I’ll make a point of looking at that.
Of the top 8 teams, the Raiders are the 3rd best team in attack. however they are the worst team in defence. Of the top 8 teams the Eels are the worst team in attack however they are the second best team in defence.
Looking at the Raiders fadeouts at the end of each half you wonder if it is their very big forwards struggling with the pace and energy needed. further they are a young side that is down on experience. They do not have any 200 game players in their forwards. Most experienced is frank Paul Nuuausala with 182. Shaun Fensom has 130 games. Having said that with Tim Mannah out the Eels only experienced forward is Beau Scott with 205 games.
Raiders Forwards 501games
Eels Forwards 417 games
The Eels do have Danny Wicks and IDG coming off the bench with a lot of experience. They also have a big edge in experience in the halves Eels 264 games, Raiders 132.
That experience is something that the Eels identified as being essential to add for them to achieve success. Well spotted Johm Eel.
Love this review, it’ll have me really on the edge of my seat for the first 20 minutes today. I can feel my anxiety levels building already.
I think we’ll be able to shut them out with our defence, but contrary to the stats, I’m not convinced we’ll be able to break their defence.
It’s going to be a tough one.
Hopefully Foran will stand up and start earning the big bucks he’s being paid.
Oops, got my name wrong
Looking forward to this one Trailer Eel! After the final round from the past 2 years, we should have a point to prove. I know it’s different seasons, but those last two losses really stung!
Ideally, I would like to see a Ricky spray at the presser with all of our sponsors logos behind him at Pirtek.
I have been waiting for this for two years.
Come on you eels (and the referees)!
I’m with you on that one!