There aren’t a lot of positives to being an Eels fan right now. It has become tradition for Parramatta to deliver a month or so of putrid football in every season, but usually we don’t expect that to start until just after the Origin period. Early in the season when hopes are high, it has hurt just that bit more to have them dashed like they have been these last two weeks.
If you thought that paragraph was depressing, wait until you take a look at the rest of the preview. This is an existential musing on just how stuffed the Eels might be right now, one that I am hoping looks horribly out of touch come Sunday morning, but nonetheless is a major concern for season 2024 and beyond. There are a lot of tough questions to be asked of the club; recruitment, roster management, why there isn’t a members entrance to the Leagues Club after games anymore so I have to line up, but ask them we must.
Sixties gave me a reprieve on the grades after the Canberra game, of which I am very thankful because for all the threats I’ve made of replacing the grades with a poo emoji and calling it a day, that would have been the time I actually did it. Unfortunately I’m not much more ready to write about this football team here four days later, but I can promise that this preview is poo emoji free.
Game Info
Date: Saturday, April 13, 2024
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Kick-off: 5:30PM AEST
Referee: Peter Gough
Bunker: Gerard Sutton
Weather: Cool, dry
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo
Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)
After the last couple of weeks you’d be well advised to keep your wallet, or purse, closed for this week’s game. Unless of course you are backing the Cowboys.
For mine, though the Eels are the outsiders, the odds are far too short to entice any investment on them.
It’s always too tough to suggest tipping against my Eels, so if you’re keen, I’d be getting on total match points. The Cows still leak points and I fear Parra conceding plenty too. Even if my hopes of an Eels victory come to fruition, I believe it will be high scoring.
My selection is 54.5 or more total match points at the return of $3.50.
Happy, responsible punting.
Sixties
Teams
Parramatta Eels
1. Clint Gutherson 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Will Penisini 4. Morgan Harper 5. Sean Russell 6. Daejarn Asi 7. Dylan Brown 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. J’maine Hopgood.14. Luca Moretti 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Joe Ofahengaue 17. Kelma Tuilagi.
18. Ofahiki Ogden 19. Blaize Talagi 20. Wiremu Greig 21. Makahesi Makatoa 22. Maika Sivo.
There had to be changes after that “effort” against Canberra, and Brad Arthur has gone with the steadiest hand the pathetic Eels roster management has left him; Daejarn Asi. Asi had a few ups and a few more downs in his time in grade last year, but I distinctly remember having a few “Dylan Who?” moments in his first couple of games filling in for Brown. Let’s hope we get that Asi on Saturday night.
Welcome back Carty, bring the heat please.
Maika Sivo is busted up and the effort hasn’t been there; the big winger has been dropped and needs some soul searching and perhaps a time machine. Bailey Simonsson, whose traditional Raiders revenge game was horrendously wasted, moves to the wing and Morgan Harper returns to centre. Nobody will be thrilled with it, but it is the best we can do right now.
Bryce Cartwright makes an early return from his rib injury and pushes butterfingers Wiremu Greig out of the side, as Ryan Matterson returns to his bench role. Brendan Hands can’t even make the squad, so the perpetually gassed Joey Lussick will again be asked to play about 20 minutes more than I am comfortable with him playing.
North Queensland Cowboys
1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Tom Chester 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter. 14. Jake Granville 15. Griffin Neame 16. Sam McIntyre 17. Jack Gosiewski.
18. Jake Clifford 19. Thomas Mikaele 20. Semi Valemei 21. Jamal Shibasaki 22. Viliami Vailea.
This preview isn’t really about the Cowboys, but here’s a token look at their team list. Tom Chester has come in for the injured Zac Laybutt, while Heilum Luki remains sidelined and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki remains in his starting role, now into his fourth week of waiting for a breakout. I’m not a bitter Supercoach owner, no way.
Jason Taumalolo has moved into both the front row and the “nurse his way through” stage of his career, years of workload catching up with him despite Todd Payten trying to manage his workload in his time in charge. Don’t do ten year deals (looks at our five eighth). Oh. I’m sure that one will be fine.
The New Game
Evolution in rugby league happens gradually, often you don’t realise it has happened until you’ve been left behind and are banging stones together to make fire while other teams are torching defences with matches. The seeds of the current evolution were sown in the “freak season” of 2021, where speed was the name of the game as the six again era created unique attacking conditions that were rightly reined in come season 2022 and beyond. Yet some of the ideas that came from that year have bubbled in the back of coach’s minds since then, and in 2024 we’re starting to see the mass adoption of a new style of rugby league.
The captain is many wonderful things, but a speed demon is not one of them.
Five rounds of footy is enough to call a trend, and indeed this week there are some excellent pieces of writing on how rugby league is changing. Mike Meehall-Wood at The Roar outlines these new strategies, while Liam Callahan of The Maroon Observer (and formerly PythagoNRL) talks this week of the evolution in tactics for the Queensland-based sides to get the most out of their personnel. He likens the Broncos attack and how they get Reece Walsh into space to throwing long range nuclear warheads at the opposition, changing games in an instant as a counter to the choking, grinding style of Penrith.
Indeed, some of this is born of the Panthers’ dominance. Teams have tried to beat them at their own game, but our Eels being annihilated in the 2022 grand final laid to rest the hopes that you could fight the power with power. Instead, teams have leaned into the old boxing adage of countering power with speed. It nearly worked for Brisbane in 2023, and that was with a coach who simply “let the boys play”. Now we’re seeing coaches effectively plan and execute plays to create speed mismatches, and doing so early in the tackle count. And the Eels are not ready.
Nobody is going to accuse the Eels of being a fast team. Sure, players like Clint Gutherson and Maika Sivo have topped the Speed Tracker at times, but a high top speed doesn’t mean as much in rugby league as the time it takes you to get there. In that regard there is little sizzle to the Parramatta side, only Mitchell Moses has that off the mark pace, and he’s got “halfback pace”, catching defenders by surprise more than beating them through sheer speed.
That hasn’t mattered much when a dominant forward pack, elite kicking game and some well structured red zone attack has been enough to keep the scoreboard ticking, and opponents only attempt to pick apart the edge defence when in attacking positions. Increasingly, teams are willing to attempt these spreads very early in the tackle count, often when the middle is compressed and there are a lot of one-on-one matchups to be found out wide. Parramatta defenders are losing these one-on-one matchups, badly.
There is risk to this style of course. Turnovers are more likely off spreads, and turning the ball over in your own half is a recipe for disaster in many cases. The attacking being shut down will usually sap the momentum from the set, as the next tackle will likely only have one, maybe two options for runners that the defenders can key on, setting up opportunities for kick pressure and more good field position. There’s a reason why teams haven’t just spread the ball for the last 30 years, but players are evolving and conditions are changing.
The new dropout rule reduces the pressure of conceding field position. Teams can’t just grubber and grind a defensive side, knowing there’s about a 40% chance they won’t recover the short kick. Meehall-Wood notes that increased off-ball motion and shorter passing has reduced error rates on these spreads, further reducing risk.
Unlike some previous strategic shifts in rugby league, this is one that can’t be taught. You can learn to wrestle, your backs can (theoretically) bulk up and start doing the work of forwards, slide defence can be drilled. Even going back to the 70s and 80s, halves can learn to kick a bomb or chip and chase, and tactical innovations like sweep plays are easily deciphered over a single off season. As we all know, you can’t teach speed, which is why this new innovation is so scary for Eels fans.
We’re Stuffed
Put simply, with this roster and this management, if the game continues on this path the Eels are stuffed. Personnel take years to shift, and the balance of Parramatta cap sits in forwards and halves whose skillset is in working off of those forwards. If the club has identified this shift in the game, they haven’t taken action on it, then again recruitment hasn’t taken action on much of anything in the last three years, but that’s another story.
Remember when Sean Russell ran down Xavier Savage in the pre-season? Didn’t quite look that way last weekend, did it?
It makes sense that the new way of attacking is designed to exploit the slide defence that every team in the league uses, and while Parramatta has never effectively mastered the technique, there have been moments where combinations stuck for more than a couple of weeks in a row and defenders learned to trust each other. That is all out the door now. Teams either join in this attacking revolution, or create the defence that counters it. The former is not an option without significant roster rework, and the latter feels like a tall challenge for a coaching staff that has always evolved rather than revolutionised.
Our outside backs aren’t fast and agile enough to consistently win one-on-one scenarios in space. Nobody has the closing pace to shut down breaks, and our defensive style relies on multiple players in contact (to be fair, this applies to most of the NRL), the slide defence meaning you will forever be pushing up from the inside against faster men. We can take comfort that nobody has really figured out how to defend Reece Walsh in space, but last week we couldn’t handle Ethan Strange in space, and that is the major concern.
You don’t fix a defence in a week, but you can sure as heck spot your opponents weaknesses and exploit them in a couple of video sessions. Every Eels opponent is going to be chancing their arms on exit sets, and I don’t think it is going to be much fun for us to watch. We haven’t got the cattle to counter that, and it blunts one big Parramatta advantage: Mitch Moses’ kicking game, which we don’t even have for another month or two right now. If field position is not going to matter, Parramatta isn’t going to matter.
The Game
The Cowboys have plenty of cattle to run this edge attack, with Scott Drinkwater, Tom Dearden and Valentine Holmes all adept in space. Their edge back rowers are plus athletes, and they’ll run a handy contest through the middle as well with Cotter, McLean, Neame and the ghost of Taumalolo. Within the first ten minutes they’ll have tried an early shift and hearts will be in mouths. They’ve proven adept at scoring points this year have the Cowboys, and points will be on offer from this defence if the last three weeks is anything to go by.
The blessing for Parramatta is that the Cowboys have also been great at conceding points. If Daejarn Asi is a steadier halves partner for Dylan Brown and Clint Gutherson can find the right mix of support and playmaker, the chance for points will be there. This is still an attack that has been strong at stripping numbers on the edge and offering multiple options with back rowers, halves that can run it themselves and, when you are covering all of that, props that are impossible to contain one-on-one near the line.
It’s just that those are harder ways to earn points than simply having a fast man run at a not so fast man, and the Cowboys have a lot of fast men. That’s before considering that the Eels should have stepped up last week but instead phoned it in, their halfback is missing and the multi-million dollar front rowers have been outplayed significantly in the last two games. I’m off this team until they give me a reason to get back on.
Go you Eels!
Prediction: North Queensland 34 d Parramatta 16
Man of the Match: Scott Drinkwater
Gol
Hard to read but an honest and thorough preview, this could be an ugle game to watch for Eels fans.
Fingers crossed a lot of soul searching, brutal honesty and reality checks were done since the Raiders loss and the boys turn it around.
Good read, for the content, not the tipping. The Storm stripped us early and wide around 3/4 years back, Manly did it at BankWest 2 years back. Blake Ferguson used to cop flak for poor reads but both these games showed our system was exploited by adept coaches and fast players(JAC and Turbo both embarrassed us). Maybe we should take credit for opening the way for the new style. Gol, I thought you were about to let loose with some Creedence..’5 year plans and new deals, wrapped in golden chains’..there’s a bit of that going on.
Oh, the game, our only hope is low errors/high completions.
No mention about our coaching staff having anything to do with how we play, tactics , game plan, mental application, effort , team selection ,mongrel , bench usage . Our two feeder teams to first grade 0/5. First grade having 40 pumped into them. All we’re doing is hoping next week will be better. But hey, that’s what we accept at the Eels.
Good write up Gol. I am glad you brought this out. Canberra stripped us for numbers so easily that it became one way traffic. Stuart clearly watched the Manly game.
Rugby League can be so unpredictable because teams catch the bus but sometimes don’t get off. Parra are still stuck on the bus but, because the game is so unpredictable and the referees quite often contribute to this Parra is a big chance this week. They are catching the train to the game – we hope they get out at the right station.
I am tipping the Eels to do a make over and surprise the Cowboys. I understand your negative thoughts been there so many times but not for this weekend. Question – what does crow taste like.? One of us might just be tasting it.
Thanks Gol.
Appreciate the efforts during this difficult couple of weeks for supporters/members.
It’s been like a period of morning.
Always hoping for a win. So fingers crossed.
Gol, do you mean mourning or morning as in the start of a new day.
Always remember it’s just game and our life doesn’t rely upon it. It’s always good to vent about all things that go wrong especially with the Eels. North Sydney never went away they just changed colour’s.
One day, one year we will be kings it’s just that my lifetime shrinking in the meantime let’s just enjoy the times. That way we can live longer. We love the wins hate the losses and we know how to hate.
Cheers
Sorry, I meant Pete.
Lol Damn auto correct missed that. Mourning was meant. But a new day is required
Relax guys, Parra to have a big game this week. The players are hurting big time and are keen to set things straight. We aren’t a bottom team, even without Moses, so it’s time now to revert to type.
I enjoyed reading this article, thank you.
We are stuffed as it stands right now but I don’t think our team is so busted that it would take years to balance our roster.
Our halves are at least as good and better than most pairings. Gutho would get a start in most NRL teams despite not having the blistering pace of other fullbacks. Not everyone in the backline needs to be Reece Walsh. Will Penisini has great footwork and power, he’s a keeper for the future.
Our fowards when on song and tuned are the best in the comp in my opinion.
It’s so frustrating to know that we are three good outside backs away from being a title contender yet we look so far from winning a premiership right now. Most non contenders are lacking halves or forward which are much
harder to find or develop. It’s like having the rarest Paddle pop licker prize sticks but we can’t find the common ones.
FFS, how hard could be to recruit a couple of young, fast outside backs currently in lower grades that can’t get a start at their clubs.
On a side note, we took for granted how many times Mitch Moses saves our bacon with his cover defence. He did mask our deficiencies.
Today’s game, everything points to a flogging, there is nothing to even remotely hang our hats on, I’m already picturing Drinkwater, Deardon and co punching holes in our defence all night. I have that feeling of dread and I don’t really want to watch the game but I know I will. So, Parra will win, that’s just what they do, they’ll come out tonight and give it to the Cowboys and suddenly a team that stunk like Eastern Creek on a windy day will smell like a Sunday roast. That’s Parra.
How are we in front ?
How hard is it to catch a football Morgan ?
He did have a mixed bag!
I thought Dylan had a blinder. Asi played well too.
Joe O’s try was the set move Woody dropped against the Raiders.
And this is where BA really falls down as a coach, he’s not a problem solver. He doesn’t identify where we are getting beaten and address that issue, and compounding that we have a deliberate but slow R&R system that is simply not nimble enough to compensate. BA needs a Frank Ponissi type GM who can do the problem solving for him. However, we have a board full of bureaucratic types who are all about committees and governance but forget that we have a premiership to win and 16 opponents who simply won’t play by our self imposed rules. Have a structured approach, sure, but you also need a provision for quick action when needed, as it is right now.
Thought our effort was much better last night. Sean Lane needs a spell in reggies, no impetus in attack or defence, constantly plants his feet and turns his shoulder inwards in defence when all others are trying to slide. Simmonson was good as was Dylan, much more enthusiastic effort, well done guys.
I actually thought Lane’s 2nd half was much better.
Speed has been identified as a problem for us. There must be players in our lower grades that fit the bill and these need to be promoted into the NRL side and we need to persist with them as they adapt. They cannot be worst, surely, that what we have there currently. Btw is Harper the slowest player in the NRL?