I’m not sure there is a better way to start a season than by beating the Bulldogs by a lot to not many. Desperate Bulldogs mates across western Sydney are resorting to Paul Carige videos in group chats, trying to get a rise out of us Eels fans as we bask in the glory of a now 14-3 record against the “family club” since 2015.

From old rivals to new, this week the Eels head out even further west to Penrith, facing down the defending three-time premiers. While the strength of this rivalry off the field probably comes down to how far down the M4 you live (let me tell you from experience, having die-hard Panther fans in your life isn’t much fun right now), you can’t deny it has produced some cracking contests in recent years (plus a couple of finals games we don’t talk about).

Truth is, nobody across the NRL has much to brag about when it comes to the Panthers, and a 4-2 record in the last six contests is more straws than any other NRL side can clutch. Parramatta presents a unique challenge to the otherwise unstoppable Penrith juggernaut, and Eels fans will be heading to Penrith Stadium with more confidence than most. Is that confidence justified? On with the preview to find out!

Game Info

Date: Friday, March 15, 2024
Venue: Penrith Stadium, Penrith
Kick-off: 8:00PM AEDT
Referee: Ashley Klein
Bunker: Grant Atkins
Weather: Potential rain
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

After being at short odds last week, the Eels are rank outsiders against the Panthers. This is despite a terrific regular season record.

There are probably larger returns to be found than the straight forward head to head bet, but why complicate things!

Parra start at $3 in the head to head market. I’ll go with that.

Happy, responsible punting,

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Will Penisini 4. Morgan Harper 5. Sean Russell 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. J’maine Hopgood.14. Brendan Hands 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Joe Ofahengaue 17. Kelma Tuilagi.

18. Ofahiki Ogden 19. Wiremu Greig 20. Luca Moretti 21. Makahesi Makatoa 22. Blaize Talagi.

It was a strong Eels debut for Morgan Harper

An unchanged 17 for the Eels, with Maika Sivo still two weeks away from a return and Wiremu Greig making his comeback from injury on the extended bench. Blaize Talagi is the only outside back on said extended bench, a brave show of faith in the rookie a week after our halfback limped through most of a game. I’m choosing to believe it is confidence that Moses will be more than right come Friday night.

I’d expect the late change again with Junior moving out of the starting side, simply because it worked so well last week and was a big factor when it was tried last year against the Panthers. The Penrith bench without Spencer Leniu isn’t as big a threat as it once was, so maybe Junior is kept in the front line to fight JFH and Leota instead, but I think Brad Arthur sticks with a winning formula here.

Penrith Panthers

1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Taylan May 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo. 14. Soni Luke 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Liam Henry 17. Luke Garner.

18. Daine Laurie 20. Mavrik Geyer.

A couple of changes for Penrith as suspensions end and injuries heal. Mitch Kenny pushes Luke Sommerton out of the side, while Scott Sorensen comes straight into the back row. Tyrone Peachey can’t win a place on the bench, with Soni Luke the preferred utility. Daine Laurie has been rumoured to be stepping in to that role in a late change, which frankly, I’d prefer.

Without Leniu, you have to give the clear bench advantage to the Eels in this one, with the workmanlike middles Lindsay Smith and Liam Henry alongside back rower Luke Garner. The Panthers middles defend stoutly, as all Panthers do, but this group are no replacement for the elite, game changing charges of Spencer.

Round One Lessons

Round one was a real “first day of school” for the Eels, easing their way back into the season. The new kids showed off a bit to get some attention; Morgan Harper with a classy putdown, Joey Lussick with a 40/20 kick, Kelma Tuilagi with a few big hits, while the cool kids largely kept the fashions of 2024 to themselves as Gutherson, Brown and Moses weren’t required to do much more than direct the team about to earn the win.

He wasn’t needed much last week, but we’ll need a big game from Mitch here

If round one was all friendly vibes, round two is the surprise test that jolts you back into the reality of a school year. The good news for Parramatta is that their key to success in previous contests with Penrith, holding their own (or better) in the middle, was front and centre in the win over Canterbury. The forwards look fit, the service was sharp and they earned the right to offload then did so at will. The defence had a bit more venom about it than in recent years, and the one-week sample size suggests the Eels have wisely abandoned the clean ruck approach (though they didn’t commit a single ruck infringement last week, mainly because they didn’t need to).

The outside defence of the Eels largely remains untested, though with the little good ball they had the Bulldogs did try some work on the edge of the ruck that was covered well. For the glass half-empty and full of dead flies folks the Parramatta edges gave a little bit to work with in conceding some late tries, but the sample size from last week is far too small to make any meaningful judgments on the wide defence. Penrith hasn’t traditionally tested the Eels in that way like say, a Rabbitohs or Roosters would, but they are more than capable of capitalising on a mistimed rush or lack of trust over-commitment if those are still regular parts of the Parramatta defensive system. It will be a big watch for all Eels fans.

Sleepy Cats

Penrith started 2023 slowly, with a loss in the World Club Challenge followed by a 1-2 start to the year, including a golden point loss to the Eels most remembered because Nathan Cleary kicked a 2 point field goal and still didn’t win. 2024 has started in a similarly pedestrian fashion; they were below their best in the World Club Challenge, albeit also fighting horrid conditions and some old fashioned home town refereeing, and then they couldn’t trouble the scorers against Melbourne last week. Their attack was out of sorts in England; runs were mistimed, Cleary and Yeo linked like they’d never played together before and they failed to turn field position dominance into points. Last weekend was little better, uncharacteristic errors led to few genuine attacking chances and ultimately no points were posted.

I’d love to say I think the Eels can hold Penrith to zero for a second week running, but there’s more chance of Waqa Blake ever donning an Eels jersey again than of that happening. Things will eventually click for Penrith, but if Parramatta can rush their decision making and force perfection in their execution, good things will happen. That means getting up in the face of Panthers playmakers and holding shape out wide, and showing good discipline to avoid cheap chances at our line. Easy game footy, when you think about it.

One area to watch is the Penrith offloading. They threw a monstrous 23 offloads last week, but of course didn’t produce any points off the back of them. Still, late offloads and second phase are sure fire ways to put fatigue in the legs of opposing forwards, and Penrith don’t need much help in that battle to tire out their opponents. Soni Luke was the unlikely man to match Bryce Cartwright’s offload total from last week with six, he’s the kind of livewire dummy half that can give tired Eels forwards fits. He didn’t have much of a breakout year last year, but he must be closely watched and handled when he gets onto the park.

The Game

Former Panther Bryce Cartwright was massive last weekend

While there isn’t much form on the board, I feel fairly confident in predicting this will be a tough, tight, entertaining contest. The Eels will be confident based on last year’s results, where they spanked a Panthers team with plenty to play for right in front of their home fans, without our halfback. If the defensive strength holds against tougher opposition and the reads out wide are solid, most of the battle will be won for the Eels.

For all the bluster, a win here would be a nice bonus for Parramatta. You don’t expect to go into the home of the defending premiers and come out with two points, but it is a distinct possibility, if far from a probability, this Friday night. The Eels match up well with the Panthers, and Parramatta hit the ground running last weekend where Penrith looked scrappy and unlike themselves. Let’s hope their warm-up takes more than just one week.

Prediction: Parramatta 18 d Penrith 14

Man of the Match: Clint Gutherson

Gol

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