With the pre-Christmas section of the pre-season behind us, it’s time for my early tip for the Eels round one team.
There is yet to be any game condition opposed football at training, so there’s a big unknown in making these selections. In reality the coaching staff haven’t provided too many insights about a couple of positions, and especially whether the pathways players will jump straight to NSW Cup or remain in Jersey Flegg.
This post is not about who I’d select. It’s the players that I’m predicting the coaches will select.
Personally, I think they will play as many of them in open age football as they can. That will still leave four or five of the preseason squad starting the year in Jersey Flegg, but at some stage I reckon all of those involved in the preseason will get a taste of NSW Cup.
Richie Penisini
The knee injury to Richard Penisini is problematic. With the depth in outside backs as slim as it is, his likely extended time on the sideline (season?) leaves a hole as far as options are concerned at the NSW Cup level. I believe that Richie would have put pressure on the outside backs in that grade.
Perhaps the reported second tier signings of the Tigers lower grade wingers will assist in that regard.
Regardless, it was already imperative that the Eels add to their roster of outside backs, and they have one spot available for the right recruit.
Should injury strike in the NRL backline, there is some flexibility around Bailey Simonsson. Currently locked in a battle with Morgan Harper for a role in the centres, Simonsson could also be called upon to play winger or fullback.
Morgan Harper is in a battle with Bailey Simonsson
It’s then apparent that an early opportunity may present itself for Blaize Talagi. Again, should injury strike the backline, Lumelume and Cini both have limited NRL experience and Dunster is now second year back from major injury.
Arthur is probably more likely to find an experienced solution early in the season, and that might mean one of them, but don’t rule out a pathways player or two being blooded later on.
Heartache might also surround Ethan Sanders. We will learn about his future after Round 6 but Canberra seems most likely regardless of NRL opportunities that come this year at the Eels. I expect BA to use him in first grade if injury or suspension strikes. But the market for halfbacks is hot. With so many ageing playmakers across the NRL, the coin and path to first grade will be hard for any rising number 7 to ignore. The Colonel will attract good offers beyond the Raiders.
Another issue has been the absence of a number of players due to rehab during this preseason. The list is headed by club captains Clint Gutherson and Junior Paulo, but has also included Makahesi Makatoa and Wiremu Greig.
Judging training track form without the two captains is hard enough, but we know they will be NRL certainties.
Some conjecture regarding the best way to utilise Junior could be on the coaches’ minds. An argument can be made that the uniquely skilled Paulo might be more damaging off the bench.
Without doubt, the Eels strength lies in its pack. I rate the Eels forwards as a premiership winning collective. At this stage I can’t find a spot for Luca Moretti, and I reckon that the Italian representative has been one of the stars of the preseason.
Moretti is pushing for an NRL spot
Now look at the players that I can’t find a NSW Cup starting point for. I’ve had to list the likes of Makatoa and Ogden as likely NSW Cup interchange players, along with rising middles in Parker and Mataele. Then those that I regard as future stars – Sam Tuivaiti and Saxon Pryke – I’ve selected in Jersey Flegg to start the year. Saxon has been a machine during the preseason and Sam has an X factor about him. The depth and emerging talent in this part of the Eels roster is impressive. Players mentioned in this paragraph could even get NRL time at some stage in 2024.
The Eels NRL interchange will be a tough call. I’ve bracketed Brendan Hands with Woodie. Will BA go for four forwards or opt for a replacement dummy half/utility? Perhaps it will be horses for courses – based on the opponent. Whatever he decides to do, I believe that the Eels bench will be amongst the strongest in the premiership.
Of course, the listed teams are simply my opinion, based on exposed form, pre-season efforts and age/experience. Ultimately, the only opinions that matter belong to the coaches.
For now, here’s my NRL and NSW Cup early team selections for Round 1:
NRL Team List
Gutherson
Sivo
Penisini
Harper
Russell
Brown
Moses
Paulo
Lussick
Campbell-Gillard
Lane
Cartwright
Hopgood
Interchange
Greig/Hands
Matterson
Ofahengaue
Tuilagi
NSW Cup Predicted Team List
Talagi
Lumelume
Simonsson
Cini
Dunster
Asi
Sanders
Rodwell
Arthur
Moretti
Guymer
Doorey
Brazel
Interchange
Parker
Ogden
Makatoa
Mataele
Reserves
Keir
Momoisea
Flegg Round One Players
Twiddle (fullback)
Pryke (middle)
Tuivaiti (middle)
Martin (wing)
Lynn (5/8)
There may be clues as to which players will start the season in Flegg in Round One after the squad returns to work in January. Some might train with the Flegg team, at least for part of the week. However, all of the players that I’ve predicted to start there could just as likely start in NSW Cup. They’ve done enough in the early part of the preseason to have their names in the mix and a player such as Sam Tuivaiti is on the supplementary list (Development) for 2024 with a top 30 spot in 2025. This places him at the same level as Moretti. My call is based solely on age with these players.
Furthermore, injury and trial form will also play a factor. The coaches might even opt for youth in reserve grade. Given that both Lynn and Tuivaiti have already had a taste of NSW Cup, the coaches might decide to opt for them instead of a couple of the older boys.
Over To You
Let’s focus on the NRL. The most contentious NRL selections will probably be left centre, right wing and the interchange bench. You, the reader, might have a very different opinion to me. Then again, you could have very different selections outside of those spots.
I look forward to reading your lists and reasons.
Eels forever!
Sixties
Who are the lower grade wingers we are rumoured to have signed?
A couple of Ron Massey Cup players from the Tigers
What’s happened to Richie?
ACL
Talagi at 5/8 and Asi at fullback in reserve grade I recon. And Simmo over Harper. I thought Martin isn’t Flegg eligible anymore. Also tevita and Moimesia on a top 30 contract to not even make the cup team. Fkn joke recruitment
Simmo has an undeserved ego , plays for himself to often contributing unforced errors , he should be on last contract for mine , harper has a few mistakes as well i admit but hes a fierce competitor without fear , i will back those that are at training , is blaze being groomed as a fullback option ? Asi is certainly not nrl defensively capable in any position and plays frightened , out of the 4 you mentioned blaze is only one with real possibility’s
Simmonson back up at best , reckless and selfish , bombed a few not only for himself but others , greedy player .
Agree completely on your comment re Asi, its a shame as he has a certain style in attack that makes him look promising, but defensively you have summed him up well.
We cannot afford anyone at NRL level that is such a liability in defence.
Mick, we have a spot and I reckon we probably have enough cap space to recruit an outside back. Put it this way, we don’t need to spend coin on forwards. So for mine, looking to get the best that we can out wide would be my choice.
Good stuff 60s. I wouldn’t be second guessing your view to be honest. You’d be as close to this thinking as anyone outside the coaching staff….
Interested in your logic for the choices of Harper over Simonsson, and then Russell over Dunster or indeed Simonsson again.
Personally I’d be going with whichever combo gives us the best defensive structures (I don’t know who that is).
I’m still not entirely sold on needing any further x factor or strike power. We seemed to be more than capable of scoring points when needed. The issue to me was we crumbled like a cookie too easily in defence. So I’d prioritise an outside back that would be something like the love child of Dylan Brown and Ray Stone!
Good points Mick. Brown is our X factor imo
MickB love your love child concept and fully agree with the two parents
You give an X factor wrap to Sam Tuivaitai , haven’t seen him , why the high opinion ? To me Luca is the next best thing if given consistent game time.
Sam was one of the stars of the SG Ball team and was even elevated for a game in NSW Cup late in the season and held his own when brought on. That’s a huge step for a young bloke who could play another season in Ball.
That’s very interesting you have Harper over Simonsson, he must be really impressing in pre-season. It’s hard as a fan to pick what the coaches will go with so I’ll put out what I’d like to see.
1. Gutho
2. Sivo
3. Simonsson
4. Penisini
5. Russell
6. Brown
7. Moses
8. Greig
9. Lussick
10. Campbell-Gillard
11. Lane
12. Cartwright
13. Ofahengaue
14. Tuilagi
15. Paulo
16. Hopgood
17. Matterson
I liked the unrelenting force of our middles in that penrith game so I’ve modelled the pack off that. The middle is very hard to pick, outside of Greig all players are capable of putting in 50 minutes+ of quality football each week. There just isn’t enough minutes in a game to give them all the time they deserve.
As for reserves. I did read elsewhere that Talagi has spent some time at fullback. Given his playing history in the juniors (lock, half, centre) and how well he’s played in each spot I suppose it makes sense for him to spend some time at fullback. The only change I’d like to see in that reserve grade line-up is Martin to the wing spot. What Cini and Lumelume bring is not going to be worth much to us in the long run. Given we have Dunster and Simonsson as back-ups I think we can afford to take a punt on Martin and give him a backline spot.
Just quickly on Flegg their forward pack is going to be stacked. Tuivati, Pryke, Shane-Tapau, Stevenson-Hala, Fualema, Tupou, Latu and hopefully the De Stradis twins
Ham I like your 1 to 17. I thought in the Panthers game, our last of 2023, BA came up with our best forward rotation of the season.
I would give Simmonson first option at left centre given how he put in during the season. He does have errors in his game and will be under pressure to keep his spot. I thought Russell improved over the season gone hoping to see further improvement in 2024.
Kelma I don’t have an opinion on and am happy to be guided by Sixties. I do like Moretti as a prospect. Furthermore the bench in reserve grade is testimony to the strength of the club in the Forwards.
I think the team goes close to picking itself, there are a few spots open and depends on the make-up of the bench.
On Kelma I know a manly fan who’s opinion on manly I hold very highly. He said Kelma is a good player who runs a nice line, manly just didn’t have a half on his side of the field who would utilise him properly. Said if he was paired with DCE people would hold a higher opinion of him. But I’m still going in cautious.
He was great 2 seasons ago at the Tigers. A real bright spot in an otherwise dismal season. Was solid at Manly. I can envisage a scenario where he becomes Ice Papa 2.0. We have a habit of turning average forwards into good ones.
coaching staff turns lead into gold repeatedly then the club loses them ,
John, I can’t see a scenario without injury where Kelma misses out
I’m not going to argue with what you want to see Ham. I’ve only tried to predict the coaches’ selections.
Each to their own, respect your opinion on what your belief the team would be at this point. But I cannot see in any world where both Harper and Russell are in the team over Simonsson. Simonsson though not that consistent had a great 2023, enough to get a wing spot if Harper gets a centre spot.
I do like Russell though. However, I do not see how Greig can be missed out too, that is a weird one as I thought Tuilagi would be the one to miss if a 14 is to be used.
Though respect your opinion and appreciate the content
Simonsson is borderline Ron Massey level on the wing. He’s a centre or nothing for mine. Go back to the game at manly earlier this year, he had an absolute shocker on the wing and this was off the back of many terrible starts on the wing. At centre he’s first grade standard
Right, well I’d take him over Dunster and Blake on the wing. I don’t like him on the wing either but he is better than most we’ve had there.
Who is Blake? Simonsson is not better on the wing than most we’ve had there. He’s horrid, in the 4 games he played on the wing last year he scored 1 try, compare this to Russell who scored 9 in 13 on the wing. In terms of metres gained he cracked 100m twice, at centre he made at least 100m in all but 2 of his full games there and 3 times he made 200m or more. Russell made over 100m in 8 of his 13 games.
There is more to wing play but those 2 we have stats readily available for and are probably the 2 biggest stats for determining how good a winger is.
Did I say Russell? I said he was better than Dunster and Waqa. Added to that Lumelume also. I am not vouching for Simonsson being our winger of the future, I wouldn’t say he is a great Winger. Ever since he moved to the left side he gained more confidence. Though to call him a Ron Massey Winger is harsh though. You are telling me you would rather Dunster, Waqa or Lumelume on the wing over Simonsson? Even Sixties admitted Simonsson can be in play for a Wing spot.
In terms of stats Simonsson had 5 games on the Wing compare to Russell’s 13. One game we were hammered by Brisbane, only Penisini got over 100 metres in that game, plus Russell only made 67 metres. Another game on the Wing he only played 57 minutes due to being sin binned and HIA. He made 97 metres in that game, so give him full 80 he makes 100 metres. Again I am not a massive Simonsson on the wing fan but the stats can lie in some areas. Simonsson struggled with how BA wants his Wingers to play in putting body on the line and starting sets, playing Centre has helped him gain confidence and could be better.
If you say to me who do you want on the right wing, I would lean towards Russell over Simonsson but Simonsson is a close 2nd, feel he is being very mistreated at the moment.
Not sure if you are joking or not with the “Who is Blake” comment, if you weren’t that is odd as a Parra fan.
“I cannot see in any world where both Harper and Russell are in the team over Simonsson” this you or nah? That’s why I brought up Russell. Lumelume is barely Ron Massey standard too. Dunster is a much better winger than Simonsson (pre-injury), Simonsson is far and away superior at centre. That’s fine, Sixties and I can have differing opinions. Mine is that unless extreme circumstances Bailey should not be considered on the wing in first grade, he’s shown to be terrible at it.
We are talking about 2024, who is Blake in the 2024 squad? I’m not sure why you are bringing up Waqa Blake, he isn’t a part of the Eels squad anymore. I wouldn’t have Scott Mahon on the wing in 2024 either
why yes it is my comment thank you for repeating as if I have short term memory loss. If Harper is picked Simonsson to wing, If Russell is picked Simonsson to Centre, though Simonsson I feel has to be there as we saw at Centre he can create something, on the Wing he can also. Practically at this stage I would trust Simonsson as a footballer more than Harper and Russell, his experience I trust and BA could also. Simonsson is not terrible as a Winger. Average? Yeah could argue that. Below Average? Could make an argument too, but he is not terrible. Though I Simonsson had a phenomenal year at Centre, though if Harper is training the house down and cannot separate them then have both and that is having Simonsson on the Wing. Is it a downgrade compared to Russell? I think slightly, but not much. Plus he could improve like he did at Centre. Though overall, I feel Talagi is the future left Centre anyway and will be better than the options we have other than Penisini. But I do 100% agree with you that he is a quality Centre, not many Eels fans think he is a good Centre either, I disagree since he spent 3-4 weeks in the backend with AMS and Blake on his left, Asi and Davey as his 5/8 and Backrower, not a lot of help. This time he will have Sivo, Brown and Lane to help.
As for Blake, I was making a comment in regards to this year, he was better than him this year, I said most we have had there, Blake was a Winger we had there and Simonsson was better. As for Dunster, I do not mind Dunster, he is in the mold of what BA wants in a Winger, ultimate workhorse. But even before his injury I did not see him being a full-time NRL winger for us, felt he was a solid Winger though did not see him as the future.
Appreciate your passion though, always good to have debates or else sites like these get boring. Though I will say if Simonsson does miss out on the 17 in round 1, that contract that is in front of him at Parramatta will be pushed away quick and his eyes will be set on Rugby. Not that it is a bad thing if he cannot beat out Harper.
Sorry I wanted to reiterate my point as it didn’t sound right. Russell is a slightly better Winger yes, though if Harper is too good to leave out and have either Simonsson or Russell then should lean Simonsson. If Harper wins spot easily then no, but if it is close you can have best of both worlds with moving Simonsson to Wing to accommodate Harper. So yes I said Russell is better but I feel you pick Simonsson over him if Harper and him play lights out for the Centre spot, if that makes sense since you can get by with Simonsson there.
That is better, my apologies.
Let me reiterate that it looks like Simonsson and Harper are in a battle for centre based on what I’ve observed.
He’s not a winger. He’s either in 1st grade as a centre or playing Cup.
Put a bounty on him josh .😇
Correct
Kelma looks like being a real find ive heard ,desi wanted him badly at manly but never got to coach him .
Is looking like Ice (mark 2)
Hey Sixties. That NSW Cup side looks pretty good! Especially if Maka and Ogden are subs!
I think Caylo might have a bit more to work with. I’m uncertain about whether Dan Keir might get a spot ahead of one of the young pathways players. He bore the brunt of Parra’s lack of backline depth in 2023, being selected at 5/8 and centre.
Interesting Harper vs Simonsson discussion – personally would have Simonsson at centre however appreciate that there must be signs at training that Harper is right in the mix.
Talagi at fullback in cup is interesting – I think Blaize is a major talent and will debut at some point this year, perhaps with his versatility it will be via the 14 jumper as a utility initially?
Agree our forward depth is our strength and the middle rotation looks strong – early season last year we would struggle through the 10 mins either side of halftime when Junior and Reg came off, losing the middle and leaking points. It was like clockwork seeing us get split up the middle at about 35 mins in. I’m optimistic we’ve addressed this with our current bench options.
Simonsson is fast and plays far better at centre than on the wing. I believe that the coaching staff see something in Harper. I was very uncertain about his signing but his preseason efforts are winning me over.
I could not support Morgan over Bailey S. I am aware of Morgan’s pedigree but, Simonsson did really well at centre. Unless his training is very poor he should be first pick.
Should there be a discussion about Paulo coming off the bench then maybe Ofahengaue should start. Wiremu has a foot injury and may not be sufficiently fit for the first few rounds. Moretti looks the one who can step up. He looks really fit and seems to have trimmed down slightly. I like Hands but Lussick might be a better fit. First up is Canterbury and their forward pack is no where near Parra.
Zero, I don’t know about Moretti trimming down. To me he looks like a really strong and powerful unit. I’d find a spot for him based on the preseason, but who to leave out? For me that choice is between him and Woody.
I meant looking super fit he has trimmed his weight. Last year he looked a little overweight. He reminds me a bit of Ice P. Really keen on hitting hard and runs hard. Wiremu big unit but reminds me Herman Hamilton. We should sign him long term.
Moretti that is, not Wiremu
Yeah, I reckon he’s found his confidence and understands his role. He’s going to be an NRL player – either at Parra or somewhere.
To be honest not hoping for much next season. But I’m glad we get our team to play again soon . Life without league little boring atm. I’m not a big fan of harper we just don’t sign a big name . I’m looking at other teams like dogs signing everyone under the sun . We sign harper very out of balance I feel a big year required by the team . If one of these players get injured omg.
Anon, the Bulldogs is a whole different discussion. But it’s interesting that they’ve missed a couple of targets recently.
Thoughts are that the selection would be pretty much based on last years choice, assuming all are fit :-
Gutho
Russell
Penisini
Simmonson
Sivo
Brown
Moses
Junior
Lussick
RCG
Lane
Cartwright
Hopgood
Hands
Matterson
Ofehhagaue
Wild card would be if BA wanted to field 4 fwds on the bench to attack the Dogs perceived weakness, then possibly Hands may give way for Tuilagi
Would,like to see a couple of the Ball/Flegg boys move up quickly, isn’t Martin too old to play Flegg again.
I’d have to check Ethyn’s age. I thought he had one more year in Flegg but I could be wrong.
Eels supporters will find out Harper has good D. No way BS starts ahead of him
Sixties, have you seen anything about Simonsson that is concerning you as to why you chose Harper? Plus is Russell training really well where you cannot leave him out either? I feel Russell could be a decent Centre option for us if Harper and Simonsson cannot get job done by mid year.
Also, do you think Greig will start in Cup for fitness due to missing some of the pre-season? Why have him fighting for a spot next to Hands?
Please do not take this as me angry or confronting you, it is purely a curiosity question for insight, thanks for all you do.
LB, the Harper/Simonsson question isn’t a matter of anything concerning me. They are simply competing for the same spot and based on what I’ve seen thus far, I think Harper has a slight edge at the moment. Now that could change after the new year training starts and the serious opposed contact begins.
As for Wiremu, he’s behind the 8 ball right now, but his exposed form in 2023 cannot be ignored. If he’s not ready, then Moretti is pushing hard. As I indicated, I’m uncertain as to whether BA will go for four forwards or three and a utility on the interchange.
Look I have not seen much of Harper and wish him all the best, for me we need good defensive centres for a start and defence to be better.
Simmonsen for me did well as centre last season. But I didn’t see every game.
I also thought Russell needed to bulk up a bit too and hope he has.
Kelma could be v good from what I have heard too
Hey Milo. Russell is deceptively big, not in the Sivo category but he’s a good build for a winger.
Agree, Sixties. Also Dunster is much bigger than I remember. He’s almost back rower size. If he gets some speed back in his legs he could be a damaging ball carrier out of trouble… Something we definitely need.So fingers crossed we get some good luck with our players And improve our back 5 carries.
Haze had been good in yardage. It’s been a huge injury to return from.
Surely he has not got as much muscle as us mate..
🤣🤣🤣
You don’t get muscles from Kens pies.
Merry Christmas to all 2023
Just satisfied hunger John.
Merry Christmas mate. Don’t forget Ken’s pies have lean beef…
Now I know that I will have to try it.
Milo have a good Christmas break
Hope you both had a great Christmas
Tks sixties. Harper got caught up in an a destabilised Manly backline once Turbo and Brad Parker (and others) got injured. Young blokes were coming in and out like flies. I recall when Manly towelled us at BankWest a couple of years back, Harper looked like a first grader to me. Also, I get your point on Moretti, but he plays with intent, where does first grade, learning and confidence take that?
Takes him to being an NRL player BDon.
Hope im wrong but from all ive seen of him i dont think brazzels future is rozy , theres kids younger going to go past him very quickly !
Jock lost the 2022 season due to injury. He leaves no stone unturned in his determination to succeed. I’m looking forward to seeing him play NSW Cup this season.
I can’t see Brazel as a middle. Has to be a hard running backrower. Cup don’t have a lock unless they use Yates
Any idea where JBBM had ended up
The Storm
Yes Melbourne – played junior reps and seemed v good but not good enough for us to keep? Maybe he saw more chance down there….he has some mongrel that we needed I feel.
Ystes and jbbm both average at best and both gone
Where did Yates go
Fairly sure it’s Blacktown Workers
Riley smith over MA at the start of the year? And so you said we still have a spot available so does that mean Tevita is not on atop 30 contract or are you refering to the supplementary contract
Riley Smith hasn’t trained with the group so I don’t see him winning the Cup dummy half role to begin the season. As for the roster spot, I’m assuming that you haven’t listened to our podcast with Mark O’Neill because he discussed it with us and what position the club would look to recruit for.
Sorry I don’t have time to watch the podcasts so I just read the blogs/articles that you guys write. So I assume we have one spot left and tevita is on a cup contract?
It’s always an exciting time, the pre season. High expectations combined with bias anticipation. I have a fee concerns. First is around no.9. I know BA opted for Lussick towards the end of the season however I thought the best long term solution was to continue with Hands despite him was showing signs of fatigue. He’s got more upside than Lussick. 2nd we do not have an enforcer. We lack aggression in defense with our middles often choosing leg tackles and bear hugs over intimidating and punishing defense. Hopefully Ofehengue or another forward you named on the bench can fill the void. Equal bench/game time rotation has been costly;reserves playing less than 10 minutes whilst we lose more games than we win is confusing.
We haven’t had a losing record in a season since 2018. Even this disastrous year we had a 50% record. Whilst we didn’t make the finals we didn’t lose more games than we won.
My bad, not making the 8 is a losing season to me but you’re right.
To an extent, a fresh Woody brings that defensive aggression. However, I have no concerns about our depth in the forwards in 2024. It’s out wide where we need to strengthen.
As for dummy half, I think the form will settle that. I thought Hands did a terrific job given this was his first season specialising in the role. He’s been used in the halves or as a utility prior to that. But it was a long season in a team that started to struggle due to player absences. Based on BA’s use of Joey Lussick late in the season, my prediction is that he will get the early nod, with Hands in the running for the interchange role at 14.
Forwards win matches, especially in defense after a Moses kick. He’s got the best downtown kicking game, backed up by a great kick chase but time and time again release pressure with limp defense. If opposition kick out of their red zone we’re on attack play 1…Rarely if ever happens.
That has been my assumption as to the who, however I haven’t been able to get clarification. But, I have had that confirmation that we have a spot open.
I agree Kevin. No doubt the coaching staff know the parra middle defensive is porous re: metres conceded (and has been for years) but I hope they finally come up with the right formula of ideas/line ups/interchanges to improve it. We have quite a few players in middle who are slow off the line, slow laterally and who don’t really wrestle. Maybe better wrestling buys us more time to get back and off line? Maybe we need better kick chase (something we are inconsistent with)? Maybe it’s better timing of interchanges to reduce burden on junior and rcg? Maybe it’s better completions? There’s so many factors but unfortunately the common feature is parra’s porous middle defence
Ron, I was critical of us maintaining a policy of being quick off the tackled player (so as to not concede ruck infringements). The match officials did not adhere to their directives issued prior to the season about how the ruck would be managed and when that became apparent early on we should have ceased our practice. In reality we allowed a faster play the ball in the great majority of matches. We didn’t abandon it until 2/3 through the season. With a different approach this year I expect fewer metres conceded.
With all that, we don’t concede a disproportionate number of tries through the middle.
I would further argue that our middle was strong in 2022.
Here’s some stats on where tries were conceded. NB – these stats also take into account where the line break was conceded.
In 2022, the Eels conceded 18% of our tries through the middle. In raw terms that was only 16 tries. It was title contending numbers. By comparison, the Panthers conceded 28% of their tries through the middle. That was 17 tries.
In 2023, in an ordinary year and with that ruck issue, the Eels conceded 25% of their tries through the middle. In raw terms that was 25 tries. It was comparable to all of the following clubs:
Raiders 23% (27), Sharks 24% (21), Knights 26% (23), Rabbitohs 24% (21), Roosters 27% (24), Warriors 26% (24) Cowboys 27% (26).
Who were outstanding and where do the Eels need to get to?
Broncos 13% (10), Panthers 21% (13) and Storm 20% (18). And yes, that means getting back to 2022 levels so it’s not impossible.
Kelma looks like he might have some enforcer in him.
I agree
I could see this a the 17 running out R1
1. Gutherson
2. Sivo
3. Harper
4. Penisini
5. Russell
6. Brown
7. Moses
8. Paulo
9. Lussick
10. Campbell Gillard
11. Lane
12. Tuilagi
13. Hopgood
14. Cartwright
15. Matterson
16. Ofahengaue
17. Greig
You’re starting Tuilagi ahead of Carty? It will be an interesting call for BA.
No chance !!!
Wrong again ron eh 🤪
Not really – if you actually read the discussion above you would realise 60s said not much about metres conceded, he was talking about the location of tries through middle with an implied link to line breaks (which notes the symptoms of the problem but not the root cause). Better yet, if you did a modicum of research by reading two articles by the rugby league eye test on this problem for parra you would realise how foolish you continue to be.
There’s also other symptoms of poor middle defense which doesn’t translate to tries conceded through the middle. Take note how often one if our defenders involved in the tackle end up out of play in the next tackle. They finish on the ground, in a poor position unable to reload even to marker. Also the high number of times we have a single marker not to mention the lack of understanding of their role from marker in the next defensive set. Compared to the Panthers (the benchmark we all have to reach and better ) we are way off. Leota and Fischer lay a defensive platform as opposed to Junior and RCG laying an attacking platform. Attacking platforms are fine but we must convert or reply on a freak like Radradra to convert zero plays into scoring ones. Something we lack outside of Moses and Brown.
Kevin, the issue about any defenders not being in position in my opinion related to the Eels getting up quickly off the tackled player to avoid ruck infringements. It was in line with ref guidelines prior to the season about how the ruck would be officiated. I was critical of that because it became obvious early on that the referees provided no benefit with their calls. The Eels had a slower play the ball speed than virtually every opponent, – meaning they allowed a faster play the ball to their opponents via getting off the tackled player quickly, yet the refs would even penalise Parra if they were slower than their usual fast release – despite remaining even faster still than their opponents. I’m glad we abandoned doing this later in the season but we had paid a price.
100% agree! Surely there’s 2 fundamental flaws with that strategy. Firstly if you’re getting off the tackled player that quick then you have to be conditioned to reload for the next tackle as quick. 2ndly an aggressive tackling style or better wrestling technique that allows us to release quicker. ie dominant tackles or as per the maestro we love to hate CS.
Wow kevin your obviously an ex nrl star or coach or just a plain old lounge chair know all . The latter appeals .
Between 60s, Kevin, myself and others on the forum above, we can toss opinions around fairly respectfully. You on the other hand are struggling to contribute anything of even marginal value and therefore have increasingly resorted to silly comments like these. It’s quite embarrassing (even if it’s your attempt at being a part time comedian). Just leave Kevin and others who make bone fide contributions alone. Their insights are welcome (even if your too precious too handle a different opinion to yours).
Sorry, I thought this was a forum to share opinions.
Ron, could you please provide a link to the two eye test articles that you’ve referred to? I’m very interested in reading them, especially if they also relate to the season before 2023.
Yep, these are a few good articles over 22 and 23 seasons:
1) https://www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2023/04/24/parramattas-possession-ponzi-is-becoming-unsustainable/
2) https://www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2022/08/08/just-a-bunch-of-random-nrl-stats/
In sum, the authors draw stats and use the eye test to conclude that in 2022 when we made gf:
“Parramatta give up the second highest amount of metres per set in the NRL. With that sort of defense it’s no wonder they get rolled when starved of possession” (see gf and many other losses over the years).
Yep – I tried to attach two links but it’s said “pending moderation” the disappeared. I’ll just give the names of the articles instead of link.
1) this was about 2023 season
Title: Parramatta’s possession ponzi scheme is becoming unsustainable published in April 2023
2) this was about 2022 season
Title: “ Just a bunch of random NRL stats” published on 8/08/2022
Thanks. Comments with links will often require approval. I’ve done that now so that others can read those posts too.
Ron, I’m a fan of The Eye Test for the depth of analysis. These posts also pointed to issues with completion rates and errors. And in 2023 we can’t ignore personnel issues.
I’d like to wipe 2023 for a variety of reasons. But above all else it was horrendous for missing players. In the middle, from memory Reg and Junior played less than ten games together, and Woody had the long term lisfranc injury. Then there’s that play the ball speed. I’m quite sure we didn’t win that once in the first eight rounds – which is when the post was written.
Throw in the high error rate in 2023 and it was a miracle that so many games were close. Everyone’s eye test said that the Eels made it hard for themselves in conceding faster play the ball speeds, even more so when opponents got the benefit of greater possession.
As for 2022, those posts proved one thing. That the Panthers are in a class of their own in conceding much fewer metres per run than every other team. As for Parra I’d suggest the middle wasn’t the issue but I’m not going back and watching every game from 2022. The fact is that every team, including the Eels, have to get much better in defence to match it with the Riff.
Hard to believe the Eels will start a year where they expect to challenge for a title with Harper in the first choice 17. Anyone who has watched him come through the Dogs and Manly in lower grades knows he offers absolutely nothing in attack or defence.
You understand you can’t have rep players at every position, but it is gross negligence by the Football Mgr that we have a 3/4 line with one genuine first grader in Penisini and a Sivo who is a liability in defence and work from his own end, and the rest are reserve graders. Not to mention the hooking position…
It’s a good pack that lacks depth. I don’t see how this squad challenges for a title. Hope I am wrong.
After last seasons fiasco and the lack of quality recruitment I have deliberately distanced myself from Parra related material.
After reading these likely lineups it reinforces my view. The club has totally mismanaged the roster to a point where Morgan Harper is a potential first picked player. Our outside backs were awful last year and there is literally no improvement whatsoever this year.
Our hooking depth is not NRL standard and the amount of tries that are going to be scored on the edges will again be laughable.
I actually find it offensive the club expects people to sign up for memberships when this is the squad that’s being relied on for 2024.
And yes I am actually great fun at parties😂
Morgan Harper is a good player and will do well at CTR. He is an astute signing and all the naysayers will be eating their words later I am sure. He gets through a lot of work and that fateful day with Talakai, was illness affected. He should never have been asked to play – but did.
Thanks for that insight Simon.
Harper is a fine pick up if it’s for NSW cup and to fill in for injuries but if he plays every game we are in awful trouble.
The centre position is probably the hardest place on the field to defend and we have nobody reliable in the whole squad. Penisini was great when he first started but our defensive system has him playing totally lost and without confidence.
Clive,those same thoughts roll around my head and if I had to buy shares in the Eels Ltd I probably wouldn’t right now. But last year we started without Matterson and Lane and Moses and his uncle playing hard ball, the player absences only escalated from there (key players at that). We suffered a losing streak but mostly by narrow margins. Our spine never fired well with Hodgson struggling or overplaying and Brown banished. I’m hoping that re-starting with a clean slate and better roster availability will deliver great improvement, before we even get to capability and skill.
Get the right forward mix, Moretti may not get the nod early but he’s got what we lack, and fix the wide defence…the year may not be so bad.
Mate I get what you are saying and if I’m looking through my “Parra glasses” I can see how we can potentially have a successful season.
On the other hand I have zero confidence in the coaching staff to fix our edge defence especially with the guys in those outside back positions.
Another issue I can see is our Co captain in Junior. He is on huge money and BA structures our whole game around our “power game”. He has no mongrel left in him and Fisher Harris and Leota have embarrassed us in key games recently.
Junior should be playing off the bench as an impact player as he used to and put someone in who’s prepared to fight fire with fire early.
Is it possible that Junior starts off the interchange? I’m not completely ruling it out.
I recently listened to fisher Harris and leota on denan kemps podcast and they spoke of their mindset to go after games and particularly their attitude to parra in the gf. They outright said parra didn’t have dogs like Penrith do in the forward pack. the way they spoke about their approach to ordinary games and finals games felt worlds apart from 1) how we approached the gf in terms of intensity but also 2) how junior and other forwards approach games. Our forward pack is our strength but is inconsistent – particularly junior last year. We need more controlled aggression to go with rcg and hopgood which is not a great comment to make considering how much money is invested in our forwards and our weak backline. Maybe a real break helps junior refresh but moretti has some really f the toughness and “dog” we need.
Agree 100% especially in Defense. Leota smashed our pack which killed our momentum.
It’s odd isn’t it that our record against Penrith in regular round matches, and in particular the form of our forwards, is so far ahead of all of the other teams.
Yes 60s, they noted that parra had got them a few times in regular season but said 1) it only served to motivate them more and more and 2) they knew finals was a whole different intensity and they were pretty confident parra forwards didn’t have it in them to step up to the level/intensity required for 80mins in finals like they were. They also noted that in finals nrl wants a free flowing game with whistle in back pocket (which we all know) but said they learnt a lot of “tactics” (I interpolate they meant tactics in terms of the dark arts in finals where you won’t be pulled up by ref) from the loss to storm. Thankfully we seem to have given up our clean style as they were saying its just a free for all in finals. Also, I never really buy into tag lines like “a team wanted it more” unless one team really shows a lack of desire/effort but watching this interview on YouTube, the attitude they had was memorable (for all the wrong reasons as a fan of a rival team)
I agree on Moretti. He is the real deal and whilst I’m not predicting him to get the early call, he’ll definitely feature during the year.
I agree with your calls on Moretti I like what he brings. Is Wiremu also a player who can bring the mongrel to the pack?
I find the most interesting prediction is Blaze at fullback.
I don’t think he played any junior footy there, only halves and centres?
I do not doubt he could be a revelation at fullback with his skill set and other rumours have suggested he may be a chance at playing there in first grade down the track.
Is there any other reason you put him as fullback not centre or halves for nsw cup sixties?
Cheers,
Tony
Watching him spend some time there at training.
What is difficult to understand is that the club has lacked a difference maker in the backline for years, and while the current HOF is very hard working etc , it’s probably negligent that this has not been addressed.
Understand the so called advantages of clubs like Roosters and Broncos, but it’s frustrating when say the Roosters see that they will need a game breaker in the backs with Sualii, Tupou etc coming to the end. – they immediately scour the opportunities and sign Dom Young, we couldn’t even persuade Billy Smith to sign when he was only offered a 1 year deal at his current team. Salary cap issues aside, there seems to be a lack of vision, planning and an ability to sell the advantages of the club.
Hopefully someone is signed out of the blue, but it’s been far too long to leave that position not addressed. Fergo and Jennings left a while ago and while our juniors are stepping up, that’s a process that will take time to mature.
It’s 2024 tomorrow, perhaps MON will grasp an opportunity.
long to visitor seldom reply. Like your thoughts on picking Harper over Simonsson as I was tossed up between them as the other center. Like Russell as he has a lot of upside and will get the wing spot with Sivo. I would go with Tuilagi as the 2nd row over Carty as I think he will bring alot of skill and power out wide and is a very good player. My team would be 1 Gutho 2 Sivo 3 Penisini 4 Harper 5 Russell 6 Brown 7 Moses 8 RCG 9 Hands (has more upside and growth in him than Lussick) 10 Grieg 11 Lane 12 Tuilagi 13 Hopgood 14 Carty 15 Paulo (back on the bench as was very disappointed in his performance since getting an upgraded contract and think he will offer more off the bench) 16 Matto (really deserves a run on place) 17 ! Offa as seems the pick of the rest but not sold on him.
Thanks for jumping on with a reply Laraby. A few supporters are on board with your thoughts about Junior coming off the bench
Also not sold on Offa. I think Moretti would offer more.
Also not sold on Offa. I think Moretti would offer more.