Despite fond memories of the Parramatta Eels’ last trip to Townsville, you can’t help but feel concerned about this road trip for a match with huge finals implications. It isn’t just the Cowboys’ impressive home record this year (7 wins, 2 losses, best in the NRL) or their imposing recent form (five wins on the trot, including over Penrith, Melbourne and Souths). It’s the Parramatta suspensions, the back-to-back weeks of questionable defensive performance, the complete lack of depth in the outside backs that is about to be tested. I’ll be watching this one through gritted teeth on Saturday night, that’s for sure.

It is that time of year where we’re riding home other sides just as much as we support the Eels, as nine teams fight for eight finals positions and every upset, every loss by a fellow contender makes the job of the men in Blue and Gold just that little bit easier. Yet there won’t be any better chance of separating ourselves from a contender than this week, beating the Cowboys and putting a valuable two points between us and them. That is a lot to play for, and if the Eels are to be a premiership contender in 2023 (and it was only a few weeks ago we looked the part) they need to rise to these occasions.

Game Info

Date: Saturday, July 22nd, 2023
Venue: Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Kick-off: 7:35PM AEST
Referee: Grant Atkins
Bunker: Chris Butler
Weather: Hot, dry
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

This is a tough one. The Eels are outsiders, but for good reason with key players missing (that seems to be the theme this season).

With good odds on offer, I’d normally nominate the Eels in win markets. Not so this week.

Instead I believe that the best value can be found in the score a try market. Will Penisini is currently a $4.50 return, so I’m leaning towards selecting him.

If you’re game, he’s paying $8 in the score a try and win market. That said, if you can get on the same game multi betting, the odds of taking both a Penisini try and an Eels head to head win probably gives you a better return.

Happy, responsible punting,

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Sean Russell 6. Daejarn Asi 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Ofahiki Ogden 9. Brendan Hands 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. J’maine Hopgood.14. Luca Moretti 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Andrew Davey 17. Ryan Matterson.

18. Haze Dunster 19. Makahesi Makatoa 20. Waqa Blake 21. Ky Rodwell 22. Jack Murchie.

He hasn’t been great this year, but he is hard to replace

Somebody in the club done stuffed up big time in letting Maika Sivo challenge his grading this week and end up sidelined for four weeks instead of three. Maybe Eels fans have been burned by poor results at the judiciary for decades, maybe they’re just good judges of a lost cause, but I don’t think you’ll find a single person outside whoever made the decision at the club, who thinks Maika was winning that challenge. Now we’re digging into the replacement level winger buffet for an extra week. At time of writing we don’t know who comes in, but I think Haze Dunster is probably the shot. He can’t run full speed, but he’s at least a solid defender and can catch a bomb, both struggles of the other contender, Waqa Blake.

Reagan Campbell-Gillard also paid a hefty price for carelessness, dropping some lazy knees and earning a four week suspension. Ofahiki Ogden comes straight back into the starting side for Reg and while not like-for-like, he should get a job done. Otherwise, no changes to the side that snuck away with the win against the Titans.

North Queensland Cowboys

1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Semi Valemei 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Coen Hess 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter. 14. Jake Granville 15. Griffin Neame 16. Jason Taumalolo 17. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki.

18. Zac Laybutt 19. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 20. Sam McIntyre 21. Ben Hampton 22. Mitchell Dunn.

Basically full strength for the Cowboys, with only Heilum Luki and James Tamou on the sidelines. Semi Valemei has dislodged noted Eel-killer Kyle Feldt from a starting role, good news for us in terms of defending high kicks, bad news in that he’s finding the line often and runs real hard.

The pack has settled in with Jason Taumalolo now a bench weapon and Origin forward Reuben Cotter the starting lock, while another well known Eel-killer Luciano Leilua starts in the back row. Coen Hess has settled into prop life as the starter.

Perceptions

If you think it is a good thing for teams to be under the radar when it comes to making a run at the finals, you’ll love the 2023 Parramatta Eels. Already largely forgotten due to losing close games to several good teams at the start of the year, their mid-season run of form was barely acknowledged and now a difficult draw and a couple of suspensions are seeing them written off with six matches to go.

The truth is that while the Eels were impressive, particularly defensively, in that mid season stretch, they did only beat the Bulldogs, Sea Eagles and Dolphins, with the sole notable win coming against bogey side the Rabbitohs, who have been broken since that loss. While signs were positive that the Eels had transformed into the real deal, one Origin impacted hiding at the hands of the Warriors then an ill-disciplined limp over the line against the Titans has sapped all the positive vibes out of the perception of Parramatta as it stands.

The short of it? We’ll know a lot more about how serious the Eels are in 2023 after this weekend. A brave performance against a good opposition, any sort of victory, and people will start to believe once more. A comfortable loss and they’re pretenders, just faced with too much adversity for a good but not great team to overcome.

Cows or Cats?

Junior really needs to stand tall here

There is no denying the pedigree of the Cowboys recent run of wins. Since the Eels beat them in an Origin depleted slugfest back in May, the Cowboys have thrashed a full strength Melbourne, beaten an Origin depleted Panthers, smacked the Rabbitohs on their home ground and beat the hapless Tigers by 74. Their win last weekend against Manly was perhaps the least impressive, and that is only because the scoreboard doesn’t properly reflect how one sided that battle was.

The Cowboys are playing Panther-ball in 2023, with their numbers against Manly last weekend looking particularly Penrith-like. Three of the back five made 200+ metres, the other two made 150+, while only one forward managed to top 150+ and a couple others cracked 100. Their newfound defensive steel comes from a lighter workload in the middle, with big forwards running downhill off the back of powerful charges from wingers and centres.

The good news for the Eels is that they’ve had plenty of success against Panther-ball in recent years. While the Parramatta outside backs aren’t going to take much load off of the forwards, the Eels pack has proven to have the fitness to take on the dual efforts of strong middle defence and making hard yards. They’ve especially been good in big matches against Panther-ball (with one unfortunately notable exception in October last year), where one off dedication and determination can tip the scales. This is a huge game for the Eels, and I expect them to dig deep into the reserves to get it done here.

Discipline

Sixties revealed some very interesting statistics about the Eels in 2023 this week, particularly that their opposition regularly exhibits perfect discipline. I’m not as big a believer as I used to be in the whole “give up fast rucks to avoid penalties” strategy the Eels have deployed for several years, especially as referee’s get used to it and it subconsciously impacts how they adjudicate Parramatta games.

For years referee tip sheets would indicate the Eels are notorious ruck interferers, meaning they were ruled harshly in the ruck and ultimately that is what has led to the current “give no reason to penalise” approach. Now we’re seeing referees give our opponents leeway, perhaps as a reaction that “maybe the Parramatta clean ruck speed is making their opposition’s rucks look slower by comparison”. Maybe the Eels benefited from that perception previously and now this is a correction, or over-correction, by the officials.

The end result is that the Eels are not going to get any favours in the ruck this year. The Cowboys themselves were a side that stayed in the round 13 contest by spoiling at the ruck constantly, contributing to a match that was a real grind to watch at times. The Titans last week pushed the referee and were punished, but eventually the referee relents, unwilling to become the storyline of the contest. Parramatta aren’t going to start pushing things themselves at this late stage, but they will need an answer and some resolve when things inevitably go against them, because that appears to be their lot this season.

The Missing

We’ve asked a lot of the King this year, and we’ll ask even more this weekend

While Daejarn Asi has apparently reached his limits in replacing Dylan Brown, with a couple of less than ideal performances in recent weeks, he is doing enough for the Eels to get by as long as Mitchell Moses and Clint Gutherson are playing well. Both are near career best form, so the last couple of weeks without Dylan shouldn’t be any tougher than the first five have been.

Reagan Campbell-Gillard is another that is tough to replace, but the Eels have recent experience in doing exactly that, as he missed several weeks following a hip drop tackle. Ofahiki Ogden was dire in the Warriors game, but before that had been a revelation as a hard runner and able replacement for the Origin prop. Junior Paulo stepped up last week and will continue to do so, and while we will miss Reg, the bench of middle forwards at the Eels runs deep these days. We’ll be right on that front.

The wing though, that is a disaster. Even accounting for Maika Sivo’s rather bland form in 2023, he is an underappreciated defender and has been very good under the high ball. It’d be nice if he ran a bit harder and did a bit more work, and his finishing hasn’t been on point for the last month, but the gap between his performances and those of the next man up are a chasm that the Eels will be lucky to cross unscathed.

Haze Dunster is probably the safest option, in that he makes good defensive decisions, positions himself well and can tackle. His attacking output won’t excite many given he can’t yet run at full pace and struggled to keep up with line breaks earlier this year, but frankly having a “catch and fall” merchant with moderate defence is as good a replacement for Sivo as we can hope for given the other options.

I’d hoped to never see Waqa Blake in a Parramatta first grade side again, but we could very well be looking at that on Saturday night. Blake hasn’t had a redemptive run in NSW Cup, though some of that is due to injury and not getting consistent football. His strengths are solid wing finishing and impressive speed, with an ability to beat a man one-on-one in space. His weaknesses are legion, from an inability to catch bombs to a knack for misreading and mistiming defensive rushes. To be fair to him, his defensive efforts on the wing were better than at centre, but the dropped bombs are a far bigger problem. If he is named, all we can do is hope.

Isaac Lumelume wasn’t named in the first grade squad at all so is unlikely to get a call up, and judging by his defensive performance against the Warriors, we should be glad for that. He’s a decent finisher himself and a hard runner, but his defensive reads are atrocious, not even reserve grade standard.

The Game

I’m not brimming with confidence that the Eels will come out and brain this one, showing they’re a class above and stamping authority on the finals race. It’s certainly a possibility, they’ve overcome bigger odds against them in the past, but I’m not confident. Maybe it’s just the miserable winter cold getting to me, or the thought of Waqa Blake playing, and I’ve got nothing to worry about. We’ll know by Saturday night.

The Eels can certainly score points this year, and that hasn’t changed despite a lot of players missing and a revolving door of middles laying the platform. The Cowboys have had a strong defensive performance in recent weeks, but they also let the Tigers score 60, the Dolphins score 30 and the Sharks 40. They lost to the Bulldogs at one point. If Parramatta can find those cracks and pick at them, good things will happen.

It’ll be tough, and with the upcoming draw it only gets tougher. If the Eels can’t win here, trips to Brisbane, Penrith and Melbourne are going to be very imposing challenges. I may not be confident, but I still have the faith. Let’s get it done.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 22 d North Queensland 18

Man of the Match: Clint Gutherson

Gol

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