Over the first five weeks of the season there have been pockets of Eels fans who think that lil’Reed has started well below his usual high standards – in particular they were fairly deafening following his poor decision making in the Rd 3 epic over the Storm. Generally speaking, the Eye Test in Rugby League is often the best measure for truly understanding a players form and based on the first five games, there might be some truth to Reed being below his best. However, given how vocal people have been, I thought that it might be worthwhile to push the eye test aside and delve into a few high-level stats across the current and prior season to see whether he is actually below his best, or if its simply disgruntled fans acting harshly towards him giving his departure to the Flea Circus in 2023.
Similar to the Centre of Attention analysis I did over Michael Jennings back in 2018 (has it been that long? Good god), I’ve decided to leverage radar charts with normalised data (refer below for how to interpret results) to try and see how Reed fits in with his peers. We will be looking at his ranking during the 2021 season alongside the comparatives in 2022 as at Round 5.
ReedRadar Chart Interpretation:
- All data is normalised (all data is scaled to be between 1 and 0 based on their rank within the population, 1 being the best, 0 being the worst);
- Gold line refers to Mahoney, the Blue is an average of all Hookers;
- You should consider Reed a leader in a category if his point/line is shown as reaching the top of the Radar and not just if it exceeds the blue line. As an example, 2022 kicks metres = leader, 2022 errors doesn’t – Jeremy Marshall King would be at the highest point if his line was shown.
As is fairly common knowledge, Reed was quite dominant in 2021, with his kicking game, and his ability to lay on tries from the ruck being his best assets. He led the field rather comfortably in these areas despite only playing 17 games. In addition, he was also a leader with regards to tackle efficiencies (I.e. proportion of missed tackles to total tackles made), however please note this is an area that most hookers are on average, fairly good at. One surprising note was that he also comfortably led the number of errors with regard to his peers. I was a bit shocked to see this and don’t have a detailed breakdown to confirm what the driver was; however, I would presume this has to do with his kicking game rather than handling – I am happy to be proven wrong though. Finally, It was no surprise to see Reed be fairly average with his Running game as it’s not a strong point but it was good to see that he is not too far behind the average in these areas. Ideally, we would like him to do better but it is what it is.
With the above in mind, let’s take a look at 2022 with the mindset that the population of data is obviously quite small (given that it is only round 5) and any true trends will yet to surface. It’s no surprise to see that Reed is again leading the way with his kicking game given its a focal point of his playing style, however it is surprising and concerning to see where he currently sits in the tackle efficiency department. He is well below his peers in this area and has fallen a long way from where he was in season 2021. Normally, this would be a red flag for him as an individual but when looking at the number of points, line breaks and missed tackles the team have conceded to date, it’s probably speaking to a team wide issue rather than simply Reed underperforming. We very clearly need to tighten things up around the ruck, otherwise we are going to remain one of the worst defensive teams in the competition.
Moving on, Reed is also yet to nab a try assist or make a line break which are areas he would typically excel at. These stats along with his drop in tackle efficiency might be why the crisis merchants were going after him but, in all honesty, they need to chill out. It is still early days and the team as a collective have opened the season with a fairly clunky playing style. These will improve as we progress throughout the season, In fact I very much expect Reed to break his try assist and line break duck come Easter Monday against a down on confidence Wests Tigers!
Long story short, it’s far too early to play the blame game, it’s only Round 5 and Reed is returning from a fairly significant injury. Moreover, the team as a collective are working through a rather tough period defensively, and outside of the Dragons game, we are yet to put in a complete 80 minute performance. Let’s put the knives back in the drawer, cut him and the team some slack and reassess a little later on.
PS. If we are going to go after him for anything, it should be for that stupid little Mo….. Yes my heart is still broken, go you Eels!
2021 Data taken from Fox Labs;
2022 Data taken from NRL.com;
I think something that is hard for these stats to convey is that his running metres generally help the ruck speed for that set. Often he’ll make a quick run out of dummy half, and while he won’t get a line break or tackle bust, he puts the defence on their heels and allows us to get another quick play the ball for someone else to take advantage of.
It’s one of my biggest gripes when trying to deep dive into RL stats. There are far too many moving pieces to try and infer anything tangible.
I think we will see Reed kick on and go from strength to strength. This little lull won’t last.
His defence has been quite poor to start the year. Hopefully its just him getting used to the shoulder again
Reed has had a few moments of madness in defence this year. In particular the Storm and Sharks games.
Like I said I think it’s a team wide issue rather just him not performing so curious to see how it improves over the coming weeks.
I’m not sure anyone is blaming him, or going after him and pulling their knives out mate? He’s had an average and lacklustre start to the season by his standards and has missed a few crucial tackles that were very obvious on TV. I think fans are more surprised than angry.
There were pockets that went after him pretty hard following the storm and sharks games.
The point of this was to remind people that it is still early days and he isn’t actually that far off the pace. I think it’s just people going after him because he is leaving us tbh.
Agree – elements of social media was pretty disappointing (no surprise there).
Like you said I think its just people doubling down on a couple of poor elements given his departure to the dogs. People need to understand that its early days and like you said he is coming back from a big injury.
Why does Mahoney appear to be the only player who passes from dummy half. Why not others get in there and spice it up occasionally. It’s very predictable.
We have never really been a team to interject someone else in the ruck for a passing point of difference.
It’s usually just Gutherson and the other backs looking for work and taking hit ups from dummy half to win us good metres.
Prometheus – can you give me an example of other teams that mix it up? I reckon the Eels are no different.
Heres what you will see from Eels at dummy half.
Kick returns – one of the halves will get to dummy half after the kick is fielded. This might be for one or two tackles. If Reed is indisposed around the middle, or if there’s the opportunity for a quick dart, it will be Gutho. If the tackle is made out wide it will be a winger or a nearby player at dummy half.
I reckon most clubs operate similarly.
Melbourne would be the best example, but that’s because they are likely the only team with two class hookers in the squad. Smith and grant when on the field at the same time are so dynamic for the storm.
The only other combination that I can recall was Ridell and PJ Marsh for us.
Summed up like someone who watched the little things and all totally correct my opinion !! Every team does same , watch closer people !
Other teams systems don’t concern me. My simple logic is that if you are less predictable in attack then you must be harder to defend against.
I feel he is working to a new plan that BA has formulated for him . I think cutting down his tackle count is planned to increase his on the ball effectivness and reduce the risk of what has happened last 2 yrs at 3/4 ‘s the way thru season he gets injured and is missing at crushal time at end of season
Unfortunately it’s not a reduced tackle count, it’s actually an increase in missed tackles. He was again poor in this area against the tigers. Hopefully he can turn this rough patch around quick smart.
Imagine If the kid was allowed to do anything on the field and actually play his natural game and not get abused by other high profile players in the team for taking run or taking a kick his confidence might not be way down, and having rein on the bench doesn’t help or show that BA has faith in him as an 80 minute hooker.
I don’t think it’s a confidence thing tbh. I think he is still perhaps dealing with shoulder recovery and that’s impacting his game overall. He was again poor in key game management areas against the tigers. Hoping he can get back to his best against Newcastle.
Absolutely fantastic article.