The Cumberland Throw

Warriors Analysis – Signs of Life & Performing for Eighty Minutes

There were periods of the game against the Raiders in the nation’s capital where it looked like it may have been a repeat performance of the weeks prior from the blue and gold, but a few moments in the first half and a well improved second half gave Eels fans enough hope to walk away from the game saying ‘We’re not that far away.’

And realistically we’re not, the last two weeks we went down to two of the top four teams from last year and we were by no means dominated by either of them. It was only patches of both those performances where either of those sides posted their points, outside of that we were more than competitive and held our own.

So the focus shifts back to being an 80 minute team that stays in the contest across the full game.

Prior to 2016 this was the primary problem of the Eels team. We’d play brilliant in patches and score some points, only to follow with patches where we were poor and conceded more than we scored.

Now while this isn’t taking place to the extent that it did in those years previous to last, it is part of the difference to why we’re falling a bit short this early in the season.

I referenced in my post before our Canberra game just how much of a factor fatigue and patience is going to play in the NRL competition this year. If you can outlast your opponents and complete your sets, you’ll likely finish over the top of them. Frustrating oppositions into a lack of possession where they have to take risks to gain field position is going to be one of the most telling differences between the winners and losers of each game. Having the ability to force teams to have less than 50% of the football is going to make a world of difference to the outcome of our performance.

We were able to do this so effectively for the early part of 2016 because our defence was absolutely top notch. This year, we’ve started slightly behind the 8-ball on this front. I said to a couple of friends of mine even after our Dragons victory that we were missing the likes of Peni Terepo, Kenny Edwards and Isaac De Gois in defence, after we conceded some cheap tries. All of them have tremendous tackle efficiency, effectiveness and great first up contact on the ball carrier. As a team that wants to build its performances based on defence and pressuring teams into mistakes, we have missed their presence as key members of our defensive line and that strategy across crucial times in our games to date.

Missed: The strong defensive contact of Isaac De Gois has been missing from the Eels hooking rotation & forcing Kaysa Pritchard to play 80 minutes

It’s also meant that some of the players who have been there in their absence and who aren’t as effective at this particular trait, are being carried for post contact metres, instead of stopped dead in their tracks. In effect, by not having the same defensive dominance we’ve had in the ruck compared to last year, has leant itself to meaning we’re a little more lethargic with the ball in hand, as cover defenders are starting to work overtime and tackles that look completed aren’t being completed. As such, we are under more fatigue and it’s hurting our forwards ability to make a difference when carting the ball up.

We compensated for this in our first two games by frustrating our opposition into a lack of possession, but even those two teams we beat scored some quick points once we became a little more tired, and that was even with the weight of possession in our favour.

No doubt this is something that has caught the coaching staff’s eye and I’m absolutely certain that in coming weeks we will see a change in both personnel and strategy in our forward rotation. Only once we address this area of our defensive line will we start looking like the team of old again. It will allow us to limit the metres of our opposition, dominate the ruck, frustrate them into errors and give our backline the time and space to dominate our rivals.

The other area of our game that needs to be examined is returning the ball out of our red zone. The last few weeks our ball carriers have been dominated in the tackle when rucking it out. Some of them aren’t making the metres we need, others are being worked over in the tackle and producing slow play-the-balls, and at times it’s a combination of both.

Having a smaller fullback lends itself to the reliance on our bigger-bodied outside backs to ruck it out of our red zone, but when they’re not being as effective as they can be, what then?

Firstly a change in the way some of our outside backs are returning/running with the ball. At times our players are running too direct and upright and we’re being gang-tackled and driven back. Some slight adjustments in strategy here could make all the difference.

So too could some personnel changes in the backline.

Now I’ll leave that to the coaching staff to decide who should/shouldn’t be there, because honestly, it’d be pretty harsh to drop some of our backline players when we haven’t been building pressure in the forwards and showing the middle third defensive starch that we have of last year. However, if we’re going to persist with Bevan French at fullback, we need to do more to support this area of his game (edit: Bevan French’s injury came to light after I wrote this article, so it looks as though we’re going to be forced into a back line re-shuffle anyway).

Red Zone: Semi Radradra will be looking to bounce back from a couple of performances where he’s struggled to make his usual red zone metres

Calling upon the likes of either Kirisome Auva’a or George Jennings is a must at some point and personally, I think that point is this weekend. Both of these guys can play either centre or wing and are big bodies who get over the advantage line.

We proved against the Raiders that once we started completing our sets and outlasting our opposition that we could quickly get back into the grind of a game, apply some pressure and score some points – and that was even without outstanding playmaking from either of our halves.

If we had the defensive pressure of our 2016 team, we would have won that game and it’s rather timely that we come up against the Warriors this weekend, another team that has struggled to put in an 80 minute performance.

After providing a start to the Titans, the New Zealand side reeled in the Gold Coast outfit on the back of the NRL return of former Eels captain, Kieran Foran. He provided the much needed shape that this side has lacked and almost instantly changed the direction (and potentially the fortunes) of this side. Let’s have a quick look at how he and the other Warriors players will try to capitalize on us this Sunday, and what we need to do to prevent them from doing so.

 

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck: The Warriors captain has moves even Michael Jackson couldn’t produce. Fleet footed with an underrated passing game, Tuivasa-Sheck is the link man in the Warriors backline who can both set up and score points. Keeping this man busy with kicks in behind the line goes a long way to taking him out of the game. A fresh Tuivasa-Sheck pops up around the middle and supports his big men very well, a fatigued one isn’t there. Kicking in between and behind him and the likes of Ken Maumalo will go a long way to winning the field position battle, with the latter being a slow turner and chaser, and Tuivasa-Sheck himself, the smaller bodied of the Warriors back three. If we prevent the Warriors outside backs from rucking it out of the red zone, we put pressure on their forwards in the late tackles of the set to produce metres, and it’s something some of the Warriors forwards haven’t done as easily in the past few years as they had done in the ones prior.

Solomone Kata: This guy genuinely worries me. He is an absolute handful to tackle at the best of times and always seems to find his way to the try line when we play the Warriors. The fact that he plays on the left edge should also be something our right edge should be concerned about too. Pressuring him as he receives the ball and strong first contact are a must. He’s always going to bounce of some tacklers, but preventing him from making inroads on those occasions determines how much damage he’ll produce. The old ass-to-grass ball-and-all tackle technique comes to mind here.

Metre-Eater: Solomone Kata is always damaging with the ball in hand

Kieran Foran: In what will be a bittersweet moment for many Eels fans, former Captain Kieran Foran poses as the biggest threat in the Warriors side. While it’s great to have someone of his talent back playing NRL footy, it’s a hard pill for Eels fans to swallow seeing him run around in another teams colours and doing well. As it stands however, he is the point of difference the Warriors have been crying out for and has all the inside information on how we play as well. If ever there was a man to bring about our downfall, it’s this guy. He knows our structures and his performance against the Titans only points itself towards bigger and better things the more NRL he plays. Under no circumstances can we give this guy time to straighten the attack with runners and options. The second we do, we will concede, he is that good. Pressure him and shut him down early, and you prevent the Warriors from being able to rack up points and unassailable momentum.

Shaun Johnson: Not to be outdone, Shaun Johnson is the kind of freak player who you know is good for one or two plays in a game that will take people’s breath away. It’s just a question of whether the final part of that play results in a four pointer being scored or the ball being thrown over the sideline or dropped. Preventing the field position of the forwards lends itself towards the latter, as Johnson is the type of player to take risks for the sake of getting his team out of a jam. If his forwards are winning the battle and he’s playing against a retreating defensive line however, it lends itself towards the former. The key message to managing Johnson? Win the forward battle and he’ll produce errors.

Error-Forced: Pressuring the Warriors forwards pressures Shaun Johnson

Bodene Thompson & Ryan Hoffman: Both of these guys are great runners on the fringes. They can hit a hole and take advantage of even the smallest of gaps in the defensive line. Both of these guys have sky-rocketed in the threats stakes with the inclusion of Kieran Foran, whose direct attacking style opens up greater opportunity for these two to poke their way through the line with angled runs.  The return of our best edge defender in Tepai Moeroa couldn’t be more timely, as Eel fans will remember the many, many tries Ryan Hoffman has scored on the left edge off of direct half play (2009 Grand Final anyone?).

The Prop Rotation: As I’ve been saying throughout this article, strong first up contact and limit their metres and we frustrate the Warriors into error. We dominate this battle & we win this game.

Issac Luke: If the Warriors are playing against even the slightest retreating defensive line, then this man will take full advantage with his superb dummy-half running game. If ever a player epitomized the importance of controlling the ruck defensively, it’s Issac Luke. He is the exact reason why it’s so crucial that our first up contact is strong and why we need the likes of Terepo, Edwards and De Gois back in our side as soon as possible. Players like Luke turn an inch into a mile and get their team on the front foot.

No quick play-the-balls: Issac Luke will take advantage of any retreating defensive lines

Even in spite of our last start over in Auckland, this game has always proven to be a tough road trip. A dry Sunday afternoon track will provide both sides with the conditions to use the ball, and has proven to be our friend so far in 2017, going 2/2 in our afternoon games, but only so long as we build the necessary pressure with intelligent forward play and patience.

I’ll be brutally honest here, right from the outset of 2017 I’ve been disappointed with the metres we’ve conceded up the middle. It’s a far cry from the steely resolve and hits of last year, but certainly not something we’ve forgotten how to do. Part of this is to do with some key personnel missing, other parts is to do with our game management. The personnel will eventually return, but our game management has to be smarter until that time comes. We can ill-afford to be turning over possession, because until those players do return, we must improve our completion rate and the places in which we turn over the ball. We have to accept that at certain times, we may get dominated in a tackle and just be prepared with our defence to overcome the lack of metres we earned with the ball.

Our forwards are fit enough that if we outlast these times and sets in the game, that we will start rolling over the advantage line with ease and that’s when we will strike, but again, I emphasize, we have to earn that right with patience first. We have looked like world beaters every time we have weathered it, and looked pedestrian every time we haven’t.

This week, the team that plays the closest to 80 minutes will win, it’s ultimately what this game will test for both sides and we can only give ourselves the opportunity to do so by addressing our initial contact, our metres out of our red zone and above all else, our patience when we have the ball.

Once we do so we will be back on track, after all, it’s just a matter of playing for 80 minutes.

 

Clint

All images courtesy of the Parramatta Eels, NRL.com and Getty Images

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8 thoughts on “Warriors Analysis – Signs of Life & Performing for Eighty Minutes

  1. Mitchy

    Nice appraisal Clint. Your last paragraph is the one, as the team who completes better and plays for 80 is going to win. Last year we blitzed them, albeit two different teams. Our forwards have to play smart, and they can dominate.
    I worry that the Warriors will have huge confidence this week, albeit they beat the Titans….but they played ok.
    I have nightmares of the first 20 mins only seeing the ball a few times, dropped balls, penalties from our friend Perenara…and Warriiors getting a roll on…..therefore our start to the the game has to be composed. The more composed we are the more the Warriors show some chinks in the armour. Their forwards IMO are not as strong, but their backs are the key, they will simply hold us up in the middle and smother.
    I just hope our boys are up this week….and we also hope Foran gets through the warm up….

    1. Clint Post author

      Spot on Mitchy. The first 20 minutes are make or break in these difficult away games. If we get dominated and have a poor completion rate, then we won’t be in the contest.
      Conversely, if we start strong, are competitive in every play and get a try or two in the opening 20, we should have enough to get on with it.

      You’d have to think after the last 3 weeks we’re going in with a win-at-all-costs mentality.I’m looking for a much improved attention to detail in our play, things done with more energy, but above all else, a higher completion rate. This game is ours for the taking if we want it bad enough!

      1. Mitchy

        Couldn’t agree more Clint. If we want this enough we can do it…warriors are like rocks or diamond. I also think we need to run a lot at their halves too.
        BA needs three messages, complete well, compete for 80, and support play.
        The weather there is meant to be fine and cloudy tomorrow. So not those greasy wet conditions we often see….augurs well for a decent game.

        1. Clint Post author

          The Warriors played a very non-Warriors game. High completions with field position. We competed well but we’re lacking polish at the end of our sets with our kicking game and our first up contact in the middle third needs to improve.

  2. JJ

    Good summary Clint, it’s all about attitude and ball control. Know doubt after the opening 20mins we will be able to see if the team has learned their lessens from the past few weeks of very average & patchy defending & ball control.
    Let’s hope it’s a much improved team effort and we get the 2 points.

    1. Clint Post author

      It was a much improved performance JJ and I thought our first 20 was pretty solid considering how well the Warriors were going. If we can improve our kicking game and our contact/controlling the ruck, the rest will come.

  3. Pou

    Great analysis. I think as well that getting driven back in the middle doesn’t have to lead to a low completion rate. The biggest packs tire quickest. But as Canberra showed today, if you give them all the ball they won’t tire at all. Junior Paulo made 20 runs and 12 tackles. His typical performance is 12 runs and 19 tackles.

    1. Clint Post author

      100% spot on Pou! Your football nous always impresses me, you couldn’t be more correct. Sometimes you just have to take your medicine. We have the ability to finish over the top of other teams if we’re patient enough to just complete our set, but we have to improve our kicking game before that tactic can become effective for us, as we’re not building enough pressure through field position. I think the players subconsciously know this and hence they’ve been risking offloads in the weeks prior to today, for the sake of trying to gain field position.

      Peni Terepo was a huge inclusion today, he was very strong. Kenny Edwards will be in a couple of weeks time too. If Moses can join us this year to give us that extra kicking option, and if De Gois finds himself fit to play again, I think we’ll start looking like the team we did last year very quickly and we’ll be more willing to outlast some of our bigger-bodied forward opponents.

      Our kicking game and first up contact in the middle third is what’s costing us in the field position game at the moment. Moses will help address the former, while the return of some of our stronger and more noted defenders will help address the latter.

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